Follow @james_tanner123 At the beginning of last season, the Coyotes were coming off a year in which they missed the Playoffs by a measly three points. They had a great defense, a decent goalie, coach Dave Tippett and one of the worst offensive groups imaginable - but despite the offensive challenges, there was reason for optimism.
I was optimistic and I took heat for it all year - but in my defense, why would you count your team out before the year starts? The team had just barely missed the Playoffs and was returning with virtually the same team. Another big factor was that they weren't going to go for the rebuild.
At the previous trade deadline, I had urged the team to take the obvious route, but with the Playoffs in reach and a team built around veterans Smith, Yandle and Doan, it wasn't happening. (Team finances are also an obvious factor here, and that's one of the most frustrating things about cheering for a team like the Coyotes: hockey decisions are sometimes forgone in favor of money ones.)
But a funny thing happened this year: The Coyotes were brutal. Like Karma for looking an obvious rebuild in the face and ignoring it, the Coyotes experienced a year of misfortune: Jettisoned Ribeiro rebounded to be exactly what they were missing, Gagner took almost two months to find his game (by which time the season was over), Smith completely lost his game in the first half of the season, Boedker and Hanzal both had season ending injuries, Gormley and Murphy seemed to regress and to top things off, they couldn't even be good at being bad: They went 5-0 vs the Oilers and ended up not only gifting them Connor McDavid, but also losing out on Jack Eichel.
Had they not absolutely owned the Oilers, they very likely would have finished behind the Sabres.
All that being said, some nice things happened last year too. The Ribeiro buy-out may have looked bad because the guy ended up having a great year, but it at least marked the start of a series of hockey-related (as opposed to money related) deals that bode well for the team being competitive in the long-run.
Besides the Ribeiro buy-out, the Coyotes retained salary in both the Yandle and Michalek deals. Even trading Yandle, the closest thing the team's ever had to a home-grown superstar so far, and deservedly a huge fan favorite, was also another move that wasn't dictated by finances.
Added together, the team (current news aside) is starting to be ran like a real team where hockey comes first, and this is a great thing. Add the four first round picks in the next two years, the veritable treasure trove of prospects in the system, the Darcy Rigier hiring and the more recent John Chayka hiring, and things couldn't be going better for the team (once again, horrible city-related current news excepted).
Now, let me take you to the upcoming season: The Coyotes are no doubt going to be universally selected this October to finish in the basement of the NHL - and that is a real possibility. BUT, there is also the potential for a huge surprise, so hear me out.
Mike Smith showed that he can still be one of the best goalies in hockey this past spring when he backstopped Canada at the Worlds, but those who were paying attention know that since the team traded Dubnyk to the Wild last winter, he really turned it on. Hidden by the torn-apart team playing in front of him was a fantastic return to form over the season final few months.
The defense, is solid. Maybe they'll look to upgrade over the summer, but even if they don't, upticks in the careers of Connor Murphy and Brandon Gormley are very likely. Stone and Dahlbeck are already good. OEL borders on great and whether the depth positions are filled by Moore, Campbell, Samuelsson, or someone else, the D is going to be solid for years to come.
The offense is the problem, but there is room for hope. Back surgery will hopefully allow Hanzal a full season and when he plays, statistically he's a top 30 NHL centre. Dylan Strome might step directly into the NHL, should they draft him. Boedker will be back and playing with offensive players for the first time in his career. A very seasoned Max Domi should be better than your average rookie. Anthony Duclair is bound to be on the Coyotes come October and there is a plethora of quality prospects who may also make the jump. (Dauphin, Lessio, Samuelsson).
Tobias Rieder will be better, Sam Gagner is criminally underrated and so is Kyle Chipchura. Plus there are additions to be made. Given the analytics background of the new assistant GM, I expect tthe Coyotes to re-sign Erat who even if he can no longer put up a ton of points, is a quality possession player and a great defender.
They should also dip into the UFA market to grab two solid possession players for their third and fourth lines: Eric Condra and Sean Bergenheim. They should use their massive salary cap space to take on Semin from Carolina, who they can probably get paid to take.
If they do this, they'll be able to ice a bottom six that looks like this:
Semin - Gagner - Erat Bergenheim - Chipchura - Condra
That probably doesn't look like much, but its a group of players who will dominate possession and keep the puck out of the Coyotes end. Defensively solid and offensively capable, I believe that outside of stacked teams with third lines that could pass as first lines, this would be among the most effective bottom sixes in the NHL.
It would give the Coyotes solid coaching, goaltending, defense and bottom six, leaving just the top six to be constructed.
Duclair - Hanzal - Doan Boedker - Strome - Domi
It's obviously weak as far as the rest of the league would be concerned, and it's 50% rookies, and Hanzal isn't really a guy you want at 1C if you want to win a Cup, but that doesn't mean it can't be effective enough to help the team sneak into a Playoff spot - especially if the rest of the roster plays up to it's potential. It also has a ton of room to grow and eventually the second line would end up with the most minutes.
Now, realistically, if the Coyotes have another terrible season and pick high again next year, it won't be the worst thing that could happen. It might even be the preferable long-term outcome. However, the Coyotes don't have the prospect system of a team two-months into a rebuild, they have a deep and talented group of players and after making nine selections next week in the draft, they'll have even more.
Given the scenario the team is currently in, I can't imagine how another year of rebuilding intentionally being uncompetitive is going to play, and making the Playoffs isn't that much of a long-shot if they construct a possession heavy team and lean on the young talent.
Either way, it should be fun to watch.
Thanks for reading.