Follow @james_tanner123 Since +/- is the NHL's worst stat, I thought it would make sense to appropriate it and make it useful as we review the best and worst of the past week in the NHL.
PLUS: Baseball Season.
Let's say you are massive hockey fan and your three favorite teams are the Leafs, Oilers and Coyotes. Let's say you land a dream job getting paid to watch hockey and write about it. Then you spend twice as much time as ever before immersed in hockey and after three seasons of doing it, your three teams have racked up over 400 loses between them.
Not that I am complaining because I'd do this job for free, but at a certain point you have to say thank God for Baseball Season.
INFINITE MINUS: Oilers and McDavid.
I watched a video this week where some kids taped their reaction to what they hoped was the Leafs winning the draft lottery and getting Connor McDavid.
We know how it worked out, and it was pretty hilarious to see these kids just absolutely lose their minds after the Oilers got the pick, but the thing is, I totally relate. I remember watching it with my Dad and Brother, and as it became apparent that the Leafs were one of two teams left with a chance to win, and that the other was a team that couldn't possibly win it again, I remember thinking that we were on the verge of a huge celebration.
When the Oilers won, it was like the air got sucked completely out of the room. Our night was ruined in the most Leafy way possible.
-The loss of the most exciting defenseman the team ever had in Brian Berard. (How good was Berard? With basically one eye, after missing an entire season he scored 47 points in 58 games, for the Blackhawks).
-The Wayne Gretzky high stick.
-The owner vetoing the acquisition of Wayne Gretzky.
-The draft picks who turned out to be Scott Neidermayer, Robert Luongo, Tukka Rask, Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin, to say nothing of John Gibson and Rickard Rackell.
-The fact the team had to make acquisitions in order to avoid finishing last and letting the pick they already traded become Eric Lindros instead of just Scott Niedermayer.
- Blowing a 3 goal lead with ten minutes left of a game seven, the odds of that happening being roughly 1 in a million.
- Currently, just one playoff appearance in twelve years.
- Never having the best player in the game on their team.
- Never winning a major NHL award.
- And of course, that cherry on top: having the best odds to get hometown boy McDavid and not only not getting him, but seeing his face when it happened. (Note that I realize Buffalo had the best odds, but that it came down between the Oilers and Leafs and the Leafs were favored).
PLUS: Jose Bautista.
MINUS: Goose Gossage
What made it an interesting article is that Burtch analyzed a player who the mob-mentality has deemed "bad" and found out that he is actually great. What followed was that in Steve Simmons weekly Sunday Column, he wrote this:
This is why hockey analytics makes me scream or laugh: An advocate named Stephen Burtch asserted online that Martin Marincin can be a top-pairing NHL defenceman. What statistics can’t quantify is a defenceman’s ability to think, read and react. If you can’t think the game at a high level, you can’t play defence at a high level.
This is such bad analysis it's mind-numbing, not just for it's utter ridiculousness, but also for it's condescending tone. What people don't get is that there may be no stat for thinking, reading and reacting specifically, but if those things help it will be reflected in other stats.
So it turns out that despite his reputation (which I would say is due to him providing no offense and playing a very quiet low-event game which statistically limits shots against, but since it's done in a very low-event style, any errors he does make stick out and get remembered) Marincin is a very, very good player. Burtch's suggestion was that if you pair an elite shot preventer with an elite offense guy who is terrible at defense (i.e Morgan Rielly) you have a very well balanced pairing.
The fact is, if the results of statistical analysis do not fit your preconceived notions, it's highly unlikely that it's the stats that are bad - and we know this from the application of statistical analysis to basically all other non-sports facets of life.
The Oilers dominated the Coyotes last night, attempting 51 shots to the Coyotes 36, but Mike Smith was the difference and returned from an injury that took him out of the lineup for three months. 44 saves. Very nice.
Interesting fact #345: In Canada, Mike Smith the Goalie is the second most famous Mike Smith. The real Mike Smith is a guy who plays the character of Bubbles in the Trailer Park Boys.
MINUS: Malkin going down for 6-8 weeks. Because that is just completely, 100% so what happens to the Maple Leafs, who will draft 4th this summer, I guarantee it.
Thanks for reading.