One of the big dangers in evaluating prospects is to get too high or too low on the player early in the process. That is especially true while they are still playing at the junior level. Each step up brings a whole new set of challenges.
For example, while Philippe Myers has improved by leaps and bounds over the last season (and is still playing, with his Rouyn-Noranda club heading to the Memorial Cup), some Flyers fans are perhaps reading too much into his Quebec League offensive numbers this season. That was a nice bonus, but not one of the main reasons why the organization is excited about the big and mobile blueliner. It must also be said that there is still a process for him to undergo over the next couple years.
On the flip side, some are way too quick to write off Robert Hà¤gg at 21 years old.
Having periodically seen Hà¤gg play during the season and having talked to people in the organization, there's no doubt he underachieved for most of the season after a very good training camp with the Flyers. However, he played quite well in the final month of the season -- basically at the level the Flyers were hoping he'd be by the end of the year minus the season-long roller coaster road that preceded it. If had had done that for most of the season, in fact, he'd be considered close to NHL-ready.
Now the challenge is to once again come to camp in top condition, have another good preseason but to then consistently carry over the level he showed at the end of the season. Easier said than done, of course, but the season ended on a rather hopeful note for him and that shouldn't just be dismissed. A good analysis of Hà¤gg's second AHL season, with quotes from Phantoms coach Scott Gordon, can be found here.
Indecisiveness and lack of assertiveness has been Hà¤gg's biggest drawback when he has struggled. However, it is very common for young players to need a few years to figure out exactly who they are as pro players -- what works for them, embracing the role that's assigned and, most of all, finding game-in-and-game-out consistency. Scott Laughton is going through the same thing at the NHL level. At the end-of-season press conferences, Brayden Schenn discussed undergoing that process for himself to reach his seeming breakthrough 2015-16 season.
In some NHL organizations, Samuel Morin would have already been in the NHL. His rookie season in the AHL was widely underrated this year. I think there was some misrepresentation of how he played overall. If he'd skate 20 good shifts and two rough ones, the latter would be the only ones people talked about (such is the life of a defenseman, however). For the most part, when he kept his game simple -- not overplaying the puck or his man, using his reach and very long strides to eat up the ice -- he was very effective. He'd end up on the wrong side of the puck when he got a little too aggressive.
I would argue that Morin's first year was a success from a developmental standpoint. He is a better pro-level player now than he was a year ago at this time and, while the progression was gradual, it was also significant. He took steps toward being an NHLer and I believe there is reason for optimism that he will crack the Flyers roster as a regular soon; perhaps not at the beginning of the 2016-17 season but maybe by the end of it.
Something else to keep in mind: Sometimes it is actually easier for a player such as Morin to play defense in the NHL than the AHL. That may sound illogical because the NHL pace is a bit faster and the decision-making has to be done quicker. On the flip side, he'd be playing with more polished teammates who know where to be on the ice, read off him better and thrive within structure.
Like it or not, that's the key to making the NHL nowadays. Be in outstanding condition, stay on-system and show you can replicate your role regularly and not with a few big games here and there. That is how a player such as Taylor Leier jumps ahead of someone such as Petr Straka on an organizational depth chart.
Several people have asked me what I thought of the job Scott Gordon did from a development standpoint this past season with the Phantoms. My response is that, despite the Phantoms' mediocre record, I thought Leier and Morin showed season-long progress and were given opportunities to play in a variety of situations. Hà¤gg finished strong, so perhaps he turned a corner.
Anthony Stolarz clicked right away with goaltending development coach Brady Robinson and took big strides as well. He was outstanding the first two months of the season. He hit some adversity where the still-existing rough spots in his game -- mostly some reads, committing too early, etc -- got exposed. However, he was always honest with himself and put in the work. Even in sitting for weeks with the Flyers and watching Steve Mason play game after game down the stretch, Stolarz tried to absorb things he could use for himself.
None of these players are finished products yet, but all were moving in the right direction at least by the end of the season. Come next season, as players such as Travis Sanheim and Nicolas Aube-Kubel play their first full pro years, similar rates of progress would encouraging signs but bumps in the road are also likely.