The Devils haven't enjoyed much success since making it to the Stanley Cup Final in 2011-12, but they're reaching new lows this season.
Why? A lack of scoring is a huge reason, but there are plenty of other problems to go along with those scoring issues. One of the biggest: the team's penalty kill.
If you look at their PK numbers - in terms of both killing off minors, and scoring short handed goals - the Devils have gone along as their PK has in recent years.
Note: Numbers via War-On-Ice.com and Hockey-Reference.com. As you can see, their PK was unquestionably elite in 11-12 when they made it the Cup Final. They generated over 1-of-5 shots that were taken, and scored 15 times while killing almost 90% of their penalties.
In 2012-13 it took a dip in terms of PK%, but they still scored a ton of short handed goals, and generated a hair less than 1-of-4 shots taken when they were on the PK. Did they make the playoffs? No, but they were in the race till the end.
How about 2013-14? They didn't get as many shots or goals, but they still posted reasonable numbers in that regard, and their PK% as a whole improved. Playoffs? Again, no. But if they had a little more scoring at 5 vs 5 (or didn't give Martin Brodeur almost 40 starts) they probably would have made it.
This year they've reached a whole new level, though. They are struggling to kill penalties, and a once deadly short handed offense is almost non-existent. They barely score on the PK, and really they aren't getting many chances.
In three recent seasons opposing teams generated 78%, 77%, and 86% of the shots. This year the opposition is getting 92%, which means the Devils are a) not generating nearly as much offense and; b) spending a ton of time in their own zone, hence why their PK% is down.
The Devils lost Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk after 2011-12 and 2012-13, so that certainly hurt their numbers, but even last season they were still pretty good.
That said, most of their regular penalty killers have been with the team this whole time. So whose numbers are declining, and bringing the PK down with it?
Well, everyone.
Adam Larsson didn't kill a ton of penalties in any of his each three seasons, but he played a reasonable amount when you combine the three. When he was on the ice from 2011-14 the Devils were getting over 20% of the shot attempts, which is downright elite. This year he's playing a big role, and his numbers are down below 5%. He's suffered a huge drop, as has Adam Henrique - the leading short handed point getter since he entered the league - but everyone's numbers have declined significantly.
Again, the Devils have lost some parts over the years, but the majority of their penalty killers have taken a regular shift for multiple seasons.
The sudden decline could be on the players, but I'm more inclined to believe it's on system changes; especially this season without Pete DeBoer at the helm.
I can't speak to exactly what's changed, but they seem a lot more conservative, and aren't aggressively pushing the pace as we've seen them do in recent years.
There's a saying "safe is death", and it certainly has been for New Jersey's penalty kill.
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