It is with a heavy heart that I have come to the realization that the Oilers are now out of the Playoff race. There will be no meaningful games for Edmonton between now and the end of the season barring a complete turnaround.
Edmonton has played 50 games and totaled just 43 points in the standings. That’s pace for just 71 points this season. That’s an improvement over the point totals from last year’s 61 point team and the year before’s 67 point club, but not enough to get the job done.
The Arizona Coyotes are the worst team still in the Playoff picture in the West with 53 points in 48 games. They are on pace for a 91 point season. If we call it 90 points to even have a chance at the post-season then the Oilers are in tough to make up for all the blown games they’ve given away this year.
Edmonton has 19 Wins in 50 games. They will need to get at least 20 more Wins in the last 32 games plus some OT losses to push for those 90 points.
I’m calling the season dead in the water as of their final game in January.
The injuries have been too much to overcome for a team that needed everything to go their way. They needed an already poor/inexperienced defense to pull their weight and then some. They needed to finally be able to utilize the depth that took them years of drafting to acquire. They needed Talbot to be “The Guy… from the minute the puck dropped on opening night.
It wasn’t meant to be. Justin Schultz has been devolving into a poor offensive player who also happens to be a poor defensive player. Klefbom’s injury history was given another bizarre addition. Brandon Davidson emerged only to also fall apart physically. That’s too many critical players failing to stay healthy or simply failing.
Darnell Nurse has been asked to do way too much, way too soon because the Oilers as an organization have failed to procure and/or keep good defensemen in the recent past. He shouldn’t be playing in the top 4, in critical situations, or with Justin Schultz as his mentor. Unfortunately the team doesn’t have the luxury to do that because of the ineptitudes of those who came before Chiarelli.
As for the forward group, in order for the Oilers to be effective as a team they needed their top 9 players to push the team forward. This would be an ideal top 9 for Edmonton (though combinations vary and Korpikoski could be subbed out).
Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell Pouliot-RNH-Eberle Korpikoski-McDavid-Yakupov
Of those 9 players the only who have been completely healthy and/or played the entire season so far have been Hall and Purcell. Everyone else has missed time to injury, or in Draisaitl’s case started the year in the AHL.
For most of the year the Oilers have only been able to utilize 6 of the 9 players on that list at any given time. In fact, the team has not been healthy for even a single game during the 2015-2016 season. Considering the fact that the roster was a fragile balance already, the injuries to the Forward corps were devastating.
Even with McDavid back, Yakupov skating well, and Draisaitl playing like a future star in the NHL, the Oilers have been given a glimpse into what missing RNH is like for Pouliot and Eberle. It isn’t pretty. Purcell is likely to be moved at the trade deadline. There’s another player who was actually performing reasonably well this year.
No matter which way you slice it, there is every reason to believe the Oilers have played their final meaningful game of the season already. It’s better than the year we were done by Halloween, but well short of the goal.
Unless the Oilers find a way to almost double their points percentage over the final 32 games, this goose is cooked. Edmonton will almost surely reach 10 years out of the Playoffs. If they want to fix that for next year they need to stay healthy, have solid goaltending throughout the entire season, fix the defense, and not take too many steps backwards offensively.
Let’s hope Chiarelli’s up to the task.
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