This is part two of what will ultimately be four reviewing the salary situations for each of the NHL's 30 teams.
Part 2 covers D-M:
Dallas 2015-16: $2.3M cap space. 2016-17: Situation should be similar.
The Stars have perhaps the most bizarre micro-situation with $10.4M committed to the goalie position for the next three years. There are a few teams that come close to this because they have a #1 who gets paid a small fortune, but the Stars will have at least $4.5M committed to their backup. I think it is actually more likely that Lehtonen becomes the backup at $5.9M. The situation obviously screams trade our buyout, but in the budget-strapped salary cap world these situations are increasingly hard to get out of. Even with both goalies having demand, it took Vancouver literally years to sort out Luongo/Scheider and other overpaid goalies have tended to either stay or be bought out, rarely traded. And it is doubtful that the version of Kari Lehtonen who falls to a backup role in Dallas is worth even $3M (if Stars eat max half of his contract). The rest of the situation is more normal. The Stars have a bunch of players who come off contract next summer but except for Goligoski and Nichushkin, most of the players are veteran depth types in the $1-2M range who would be reasonably easy to re-sign or replace them for similar prices. Dallas looks a bit like Columbus to me in that they have a pretty good set of young forwards with most locked up for some time but are young and thin on defense. If the kids step up, it works. If not, there really is not much money to fix it.
Net: The goalie situation will be interesting to watch. Otherwise, the team needs a couple young defensemen to step up and mature at which point it all works.
Detroit 2015-16: About $1M cap space after sorting out who stays and who goes from the crop of forwards many of whom are signed to 2-way contracts. 2016-17: At first glance, the Wings appear to have a bunch of dry powder ($18Mish) for next summer, but the majority of it is from modestly priced players coming off contracts. These situations are not often cap savings because the cost to re-sign or replace decent $2Mish players is usually small if anything.
We are two years away from Detroit doing the next round of CBA/salary cap head scratcher trades in the category of Clarkson for Horton last season and Savard and Pronger being moved this summer. Starting in 2017-18 Johan Franzen’s remaining contract is real $ of 3 years at $1.3M/year but with a cap hit of $4M. If he is still productive at this stage of his career, a deal like this fits nicely for a team that is ‘cash=sensitive’ and ‘salary cap=don’t care’ (like my team, the Canes). Starting in 2018-19, Henrik Zetterberg’s contract does the same. At that point he is due only $1.8/year for 3 years but with a cap hit of $6M. Buyouts are a possibility depending on player productivity, but if they are productive, they could be good adds for the ‘salary cap=don’t care’ teams.
But I digress…Detroit has only seven forwards signed for the 2016-17 season. Many of the free agents are restricted free agents who are likely to return. So the team seems positioned to free up some $ next summer to maybe make one big add (like Mike Green this summer) and spend a bit re-signing their youth.
Net: I am not sure they know it or admit it because they continue to make the playoffs every year, but I think the Wings are a team in transition. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are now 37 and 34 respectively, and Wings’ volume of top-end NHL talent even counting the aging stars just does not match up to the elite teams anymore. I think the fact that the team is so incredibly good at developing youth into at least serviceable players and leveraging their strong system helps them play to a middle level seemingly regardless of personnel but really does not give them a chance to win it all right now. It will be interesting to see if/how much of this was Mike Babcock’s doing.
Edmonton 2015-16: $3.7M cap space. 2016-17: The Oilers are freed of $9M when Purcell and Nikitin come off the books next summer which seems like plenty to replace them and free up some cash.
The Oilers very much remind me of the Sabres’ situation. They have a bunch of $4-6M players that are really more middle of the roster players on good teams. Purcell, Pouliot, Ference, Nikitin, Schultz and Fayne average nearly $4M/year/player. How many of those players would you buy for that price?
Net: At the end of the day, the Oilers are all about McDavid. To date, Edmonton’s collection of #1 overall picks, young talent and potential has come nowhere close to building a good hockey team. But there is some talent there. IF McDavid is instantly elite as people expect and IMPORTANTLY IF he can somehow be the glue that helps make the rest of the stuff work, then just maybe it finally comes together. Next summer there should be some $ to patch a couple holes if the holes somehow decrease from “everything… to “a couple.…
Florida: 2015-16: Could be $15M cap space if the team put Savard on IR (which they will not) with Huberdeau still to be re-signed. 2016-17: Even more money frees up when Campbell and Mitchell come off the books for a whopping $11.5M.
The fact that the Panthers could, but likely will not put Marc Savard on LTIR says it all. The team has more risk/concern about not hitting the cap floor than it does going over the ceiling. If the Panthers were a big market, spend-to-the-cap team they would have a ton of dry powder for now and this summer. But they fall into the same category as Arizona, Carolina and others whose rosters are dictated by an internal budget that sits much below the salary cap limit.
Net: The team is in great shape cap-wise and has a pretty good roster of young forwards that just missed the playoffs in 2014-15, but internal budget limits make it unlikely that the team will much of its cap availability to add even more talent. It would be interesting to see if the ownership group decides to go all in if the team in current form takes the next step this year. There seems to be potential to take a good young core, add to it with short-term $ and see where it goes.
Los Angeles I will be honest. I need help from Jason Lewis or someone else who knows the details of the Kings couple open salary cap issues. 2015-16: Hockeybuzz shows the Kings with $6.3M of salary cap available. This does include a $1.3M hit for Mike Richards but includes nothing for Voynov who is still signed for $4.2M. Last I read the Kings’ were in limbo on both pending potential need for legal resolution on Richards’ situation. (If this turns into a regular buyout, the hit is higher I believe.) And if/when Voynov is cleared to play, he would come back on the books. Regardless, the short answer is that the Kings entered the summer pretty tightly up against the cap and that is still pretty much the case with a couple things still to be sorted out. 2016-17: Unless Voynov is removed with full salary cap relief, next summer also looks challenging with Kopitar coming off a $6.8M/year deal and likely costing a bit more without much coming off the books salary-wise for the Kings.
Net: Two years ago, the core of this roster was good enough to win the Stanley Cup. If that version of the team reappears in 2015-16 and onward, the Kings should be okay. But this summer they were unable to keep Sekera who they added at the trade deadline and also lost Justin Williams. If the 2014-15 playoff miss is a trend not an aberration, the Kings could be hard-pressed to add talent to stop the slide given the challenging budget situation.
Minnesota 2015-16: With about $2M remaining Minnesota is fairly close to the cap limit. It looks probable that Backstrom will go on LTIR and free up $3.4M (if he stays there for the full season), but similar to the Kings’ situation it is hard to spend that money because it is uncertain if/when Backstrom could return. 2016-17: Next summer offers a little relief in that Backstrom comes off the books when his contract expires. But otherwise there could actually be additional pressure when some inexpensive contracts expire and seem likely to cost more not less going forward.
As much as any team, I think Minnesota is in no man’s land. They are a good team as a team that made the playoffs. But they also just do not seem to stack up to the Western Conference leaders in the playoffs which suggests they need to do something to improve. Barring trades or buyouts (both difficult because of the $/year on many deals), the Wild is locked into most of their roster for a couple years. So how do they make a move or two on a limited budget to improve their chances to win its way through the challenging Western Conference playoff bracket?
Net: It will be interesting to see what, if anything, the Wild can do to leverage its playoff entry-capable core and try a different formula for playoff winning with minimal budget to do so.
Montreal 2015-16: The roster appears to be set with almost $3M salary cap space remaining. 2016-17: Except Plekanec the higher-end core of the team is signed 2+ years out. With the $3M from 2015-16 and whatever we get for a salary cap increase, the Habs have some flexibility to add a single higher-end player or possibly two lower-priced players to a core that is pretty good already.
The Habs seem to have a pretty good mix of top-end talent that you have to pay for (i.e. Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Petry, etc.) and some youth and veteran depth on the cheap. In today’s cap-strapped NHL, the $3Mish of flexibility that they have for a trade later is more than most teams who can stake a claim to being in the top third of the NHL. The summer of 2016 does not present any much in the way of big salary escalations from players coming off entry level/RFA deals, so the team has a bit of dry powder that it could use for 2015-16 rentals or possibly longer-term additions if the terms are right.
Net: Montreal has a pretty good mix of having a solid core locked in with at least some flexibility and without any major impending salary pressure for the next 1-2 years from players coming off cheap deals. If the current roster is good, there seems to be some $ to try to stretch it to great.
When you net out this first set of nine teams, I think it breaks down like this: --Salary cap irrelevant because of internal budget: Florida. --Salary cap challenged: Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles, Minnesota. --Near the cap but with modest flexibility: Edmonton, Montreal.
Would be curious to hear thoughts from people who track the these teams more closely than I do. --What is the latest expectation/situation with regard to Richards and Voynov in LA? --Does anyone else think that LA is in a dangerous spot with a team that has little flexibility, lost a couple players this summer and could need some reinforcements that they cannot afford? --Does anyone else agree with my assessments that sort of place Detroit and Minnesota in no man's land for different reasons? Detroit=playing above their head but really not with enough talent to push for a Cup, and Minnesota just firmly entrenched as a good team in a second tier with little flexibility $-wise to move up? --Can one player (McDavid) be the glue that pulls the somewhat talented but not hockey good Oilers to a different level? --What else?
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