Another NHL year, another Minnesota Wild team that’s better than average, yet far from a consensus pick as a Stanley Cup frontrunner. You can’t count out a team whose goalie produced the white-hot streaks Devan Dubnyk did last season, but be honest – if the playoffs began tomorrow night, would you pick the Wild to beat the Chicago Blackhawks or Dallas Stars? If you had a lot of money to wager, would you be prepared to do it by betting Minnesota could beat the L.A. Kings in a seven-game series?
You might, but I’m not so sure a majority of the hockey community would follow your lead. I think that, barring a trade of notable consequence, Minnesota will be hard-pressed to go further in the post-season than its Western Conference semifinals appearance last year. Unfortunately for the organization – and a fan base and culture that has a deep appreciation for the sport – the NHL’s current playoff structure that stresses divisional showdowns does the Wild no favors, nor does the intimidating group of Central Division opponents stacked with top-tier talent for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, for a variety of reasons, the odds aren’t in Minnesota’s favor. And so, for yet another year, you wonder when Wild management will either try to make the gambles necessary to push the team into odds-on Cup favorite territory, or take the roster in another direction via major changes.
As noted, the Wild are a solid team in many regards. Only two teams in the West have more home wins than Minnesota (14-7-2) thus far, and only six teams in the league have a lower goals-against-per-game than the Wild's (2.35). Neither of those accomplishments come out of the blue: Minnesota receives tremendous support at the Xcel Energy Center and has traditionally played well in front of their home crowd; and, since their inaugural season in 2000-01 under head coach and talent shutdown mastermind Jacques Lemaire, the Wild have been associated with stingy play on defense, only allowing more than 226 goals twice in 14 years of existence.
That said, for nearly every positive you can see for the Wild, there’s a question mark to temper your enthusiasm for them. Despite its overall home record, Minnesota is 0-2-1 in its last three at Xcel and 2-4-1 in its past seven home games. And despite a bump in overall offense last season to 231 total goals-for – the franchise’s best scoring output since the 2006-07 campaign, when they amassed 235 – the Wild’s goals-for per game this year (2.63) sits at a mediocre 12th overall, and represents a drop in last year’s full-season average of 2.82.
And while there’s no doubting the organization employs a number of players capable of playing on and contributing to a Stanley Cup-winner, the Wild still doesn’t jump out as having the best collection of players in any given category. Sure, forwards Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu and Thomas Vanek can put the puck in the net at any point in the game, but compared to the likes of Chicago’s forwards (including Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Artemi Panarin, among others) or Dallas’ (led by Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Patrick Sharp and Jason Spezza), Minnesota’s group suddenly doesn’t seem nearly as threatening.
Similarly, the Wild’s defense corps is the envy of many NHL teams, but can you definitively state that – comprised of Ryan Suter, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, Marco Scandella and Jared Spurgeon – Minnesota’s blueline is better than St. Louis’ (which includes Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk, Jay Bouwmeester and Colton Parayko) or Nashville’s (featuring Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm)? I don’t think so. And despite Dubnyk’s 18-12-4 record in the Wild’s net this year, his individual numbers (including a goals-against average of 2.32 and save percentage of .920) have dipped from his incredible 2014-15 showing (1.78 G.A.A., .936 SP).
By now, you should be able to see why pundits aren’t prepared to board the Wild bandwagon until they have a little more in the way of real results. In fact, after last spring’s second-round sweeping at the hands of the Hawks – a regression from the six games Minnesota took Chicago to in the second round of the 2014 post-season – the Wild aren’t likely to be the favorites when this year’s playoffs begin.
Should they fail to win at least a couple rounds this year, it’s difficult to see the Wild sticking with Mike Yeo behind the bench. And maybe his potential replacement as head coach does for Minnesota what Barry Trotz is doing for the Capitals, but if that result doesn’t materialize, GM Chuck Fletcher may have no choice but to make big moves on the trade front.
In 14 years, the Wild have played in a conference final just once, failed to win a single game in that appearance, and have missed the playoffs eight times. That’s not Columbus-type futility, but it’s not impressive.
The Wild are in a better place than many NHL teams, and, like approximately one-half, if not two-thirds of the league, if they’re hot and healthy by mid-April, they could find themselves enjoying a deep post-season run.
But if they bow out with a whimper yet again, they’ll be testing the famous good natures of Minnesotans who deserve so much better for loving hockey as much as they do.