It's time for the first mailbag following the Leafs winning the NHL Draft Lottery and some Toronto fans are wondering whether there is any chance that the club bucks conventional wisdom and selects someone other than Auston Matthews with the top overall pick or trades it.
@MikeInBuffalo what do you think of Shanny liking the tweet about Stamkos? plus he only have ever like 2 tweets before
— Leafs in 2018 (@Leafs2018) May 9, 2016
A: It's not exactly hard evidence of the Leafs interest in Steven Stamkos, but where there is smoke, there is often fire. Liking something on Twitter is hardly cause for tampering charges, but my personal belief is that Stamkos will not get a good offer from Tampa Bay with Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn and others looking for new deals this summer and Victor Hedman and Ben Bishop scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2017.
Never forget. pic.twitter.com/QPInI3dWZJ
— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) May 8, 2016
There is no guarantee that Stamkos is Toronto bound, but the fact that the Lightning have reached the Eastern Conference Final for the second year in a row without him in the lineup may be a factor in GM Steve Yzerman going all out to sign the Markham, ON native.
The Leafs getting the top pick and likely selection of Auston Matthews could significantly accelerate the rebuild and could sway Stamkos that signing with Toronto would be a waste of his prime years.
@MikeInBuffalo who do you assume the leafs goalie of the future is? Assuming they go outside the organization?
— Daniel Tiller (@tiller_daniel) May 9, 2016
A - Not sold that Frederik Andersen is Toronto bound, as the Anaheim goalie is an RFA and will cost more than $4 Million per season on a new deal. Re-signing James Reimer or trading for Andrei Vasilevskiy or Jake Allen could be expensive, but GM Lou Lamoriello knows how important it is to improve dramatically in goal.
It is possible in a transition year that the Leafs keep Jonathan Bernier to play the final year of his contract and bring in a young goalie to split duty with the veteran and take over after the trade deadline or next season.
Calvin Pickard (who has played 36 NHL games for Colorado the last two seasons) or former Lamoriello draft pick Scott Wedgewood (who is a big reason why the Albany Devils lead the Marlies 2-1 in their Calder Cup series) could be available and ready for the challenge of being a #1 goaltender.
@MikeInBuffalo Which player(s) are most likely to be moved this offseason?
— Ryan Russell (@Russell_SFI) May 9, 2016
A - Best guess based on how these players were used by Mike Babcock or the Leafs expected depth chart:
Peter Holland (moved from center to wing), Tyler Bozak/Nazem Kadri (victims of the Matthews pick), Josh Leivo (scored five goals in limited play this season and has value), Stuart Percy (would have to clear waivers to be demoted to the AHL, capable of being an NHL defenseman).
@MikeInBuffalo I know the Leafs need that #1 C, but Laine has looked better so far. Do you think they lean more to Laine now than before?
— James McClelland (@jmcclelland12) May 9, 2016
A - Laine is an excellent prospect and likely will become a top scoring NHL winger, but Matthews has been just as impressive at the World Championships. You will get nothing out of the Leafs when it comes to who they will select on June 24th in Buffalo, but they are selecting Matthews and that is a no-brainer.
@MikeInBuffalo do u think the leafs will offer sheet anyone with the amount of young prospects they have and the cap hell some teams are in?
— Anthony Guzzo (@Domiclark) May 9, 2016
A - Since the Leafs are nowhere close to being a contending team and the fact that they have made a considerable effort to horde draft picks, it is doubtful they would sign a player to an offer sheet and surrender picks, which could end up being high draft choices.
Another factor that makes it unlikely is Toronto having to possess their own picks to sign a player to an offer sheet (a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for a offer of $3.6M to $5.47M or two 1st’s, a 2nd and 3rd for a contract from $5.47M to $7.3M). The Leafs have to relinquish two 3rd round picks before 2018 to compensate Detroit and New Jersey for signing Babcock and Lamoriello.
@MikeInBuffalo If the Leafs draft Matthews, what are the chances of the Leafs offering Stamkos a shorter term deal....as in 5 years or less?
— John W. Henderson (@PrinceLH2) May 9, 2016
A - Stamkos is potentially the most impactful free agent since Zdeno Chara signed with Boston in 2006 and there is no way that he will be accepting anything less than a max deal.
The blood clotting issue may scare some teams away for fear of recurrence or not being able to insure the contract, but there will still be teams that will offer the 26-year-old a 7-year contract in excess of $10 Million per season.
@MikeInBuffalo Do you think Connor Brown makes the #Leafs next year?
— Eli Cohen (@eli362) May 9, 2016
A - Brown's chances of playing in a scoring role next season may have been hurt by the Leafs winning the lottery, since Matthews addition may lead to William Nylander being shifted to the wing.
If Toronto adds Jimmy Vesey or Mitch Marner makes the team, Brown would have to beat out Nikita Soshnikov or Zach Hyman for a bottom six position, which does not fit his skill set.
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Listen to the latest edition of "The Convo" with myself and CTV London's Norman James, as we discuss the Toronto Marlies, the Laine - Auston Matthews matchup and Mitch Marner's readiness to play in the NHL next season.
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