Happy New Year. I wish health, happiness and prosperity to you and your families in 2016.
Thank you for following me here on Hockeybuzz.com since 2005.
The Buffalo Sabres are 0-3 this week. Two stinging losses to Washington and a nail biter of a loss to the Brooklyn Islanders have revealed a frustrating reality. That is, the Sabres have scored only three goals in their past three games since smoking the Boston Bruins 6-3 last Saturday night.
Goal scoring droughts are not a new revelation to Dan Bylsma's Sabres. In their first 38 games played in 2015, the Sabres have struggled to put the biscuit in the basket on many a night. Call it not bearing down and burying their chances, call it what you will. Call me an alarmist, tell me I'm out of my skull. Bylsma needs goals and he needs them now. He cannot continue to wait for his experimental lines to click and produce more goals. The Sabres have now lost 12 one-goal games this season. Twelve. One. Goal. Games. If the Sabres win half of those games that would be 12 more points in the standings which would put them in a playoffspot.
I spy with my own eyes that when the clock struck midnight at New Year's Day 2016 that the Buffalo Sabres are now the 27th ranked offense out of 30 teams in the National Hockey League. Only Pittsburgh (85), Philadelphia (77) and Anaheim (67) have scored fewer goals for this season.
In 38 games, the Sabres have scored just 87 goals (41 at home, 46 on road) for while allowing 98 goals against. When you back out their 23 power play goals for and their 1 short handed goal for, the Buffalo offense has scored only 63 goals 5-on-5 for in 38 games. The glass half full view is that the Sabres are scoring 2.28 goals per game. The glass half empty is that the Sabres are scoring 1.6 even strength goals per game.
Welcome to 27th place in the NHL standings.
By comparison, the 2014-15 Sabres were the worst offense in NHL history when they scored only 153 goals for. After the lockout shortened season of 2013-14, the 30th place Sabres scored 150 goals for in 41 games played. The 2015-16 Sabres are a better collection of offensive and defensive players, however, the math doesn't lie.
This vintage of Buffalo Sabres projects to score 187 goals this season which is only a whisker or two better offensively than the worst ever tanking squad that Ted Nolan drove to 30th place for two consecutive seasons on a row.
If the playoffs began today, the Sabres would a lottery team and would be selecting third overall in the Auston Matthews draft.
Last year at this time, given the same circumstances and place in the tanking standings, 99.9% of Buffalo Sabres fans would be giddy with excitement and anticipation. The EichDavid movement taught me how to be happy when the hometown lost games. I wanted to vomit every time I saw and heard Sabres fans cheering when opponents scored inside First Niagara Center. To be candid, I never want to go back to those days ever again.
Happy New Year.
What's the solution?
More structure? Better defensive zone coverage? Better goaltending? Better 200 foot defense?
The answer is yes, yes, yes, and yes.
Dan Bylsma is all about limiting chances against and keeping opponents wide and now letting them to drive the middle of the D. He likes to activate his D to create five man offensive units. He preaches patience and discipline. From Ryan O'Reilly down to the last man on the roster, the Sabres players have bought in and are succeeding playing in Bylsma's system.
The way I see it, the system is not the problem.
My solution to this offensive malaise is to make a trade for a scoring left winger (who can also play right wing) and a left handed defenseman who can not only eat big minutes but contribute to 5-on-5 and PP scoring.
Ryan O…Reilly leads the team with 18 goals scored.
The next closest scorers come from the left wing ranks where Jamie McGinn and Evander Kane each have 8 goals apiece and a combined 30 points in 38 games. I like their production. I like their effort. Kane is second on the team in shots taken with 106 (7.5% shot %). McGinn has taken 62 shots (12.9% shot %). When not scoring, McGinn and Kane add value in the form of winning wall battles, being first on loose pucks, fighting through traffic, back-checking and playing sound defensively.
Finnish Norris Trophy award hopeful Rasmus Ristolainen has seven goals.
If only we could say the same about Matt Moulson, he of the healthy scratch on Wednesday night in Washington. I won't sugar coat my sentiments about Moulson. He's a nice guy and a great guy in the room, however, his hands have turned to stone. Its not just this season either. Moulson struggled nightly in the calendar year of 2015.
Moulson is paid $5 million per season to shoot the puck and score. So, how do you explain him being 11th on the team with only 61 shots (6.6%) landed on opposing goalies in 37 games played? No wonder he has only 4 goals and 8 assists this season. He is a sharp shooter, or at least he used to be, who is choosing to keep his gun in its holster on his right hip. That's why he is on the third and fourth lines. In my opinion, he has lost the trust of his head coach and GM. Dan Bylsma has been patient with Moulson. To a fault Bylsma has been patient with his struggling vets Moulson, Tyler Ennis and Brian Gionta. The thought process is that maybe these guys will turn their game around by practicing hard and playing through the struggles. Frankly, it hasn't happened.
Here we are at the mid-term grading period and the trip of Moulson-Ennis-Gionta have scored a combined 11 goals and 34 points.
Bylsma has been patient with his struggling veteran top six guys, however, his patience reached its end. To his credit, the captain Gionta has found new found glory and scoring while riding alongside Jack Eichel and Zemgus Girgensons in the past two games. My guess is that Bylsma will leave this trio together because of their ability to not only create but convert their chances. The 28-15-12 line is productive. That's all that Bylsma is asking for. Work hard, support your line mates, create chances and bury them when the opportunities present themselves. It's simple, right? Give your boss what he wants and what's best for the organization and he will prop you up.
Seemingly, Moulson finds himself on the outside of Bylsma's circle of trust. The head coach finally parked the struggling thirty-something in the press box against Ovechkin and Holtby on Wednesday night. The fans applauded the move. Long overdue they said. Again, the fans are not hating on Moulson. They want to see the 30 goal scorer that was traded to Buffalo for Thomas Vanek. Is that too much to ask?
Moulson has been disappointing in all three zones this season. Were it not for the recurring upper body injury to Tyler Ennis on Wednesday night, I think Bylsma would and should have turfed Moulson against his former Islanders on Thursday night. I was in favor of Tim Murray calling up Cal O'Reilly from Rochester and rewarding him with ice time rather than playing Moulson for the injured Ennis. It didn't happen though. Moulson played a so-so game and the Sabres lost another one goal game. Another game where his team carried the play and dominated the opponent and failed to win the game.
Moulson has been given ample time and opportunities to turn his season around. He scored just 13 goals and added 28 assists last season in 17:41 TOI. Bylsma has taken Moulson's ice time away and his numbers have have plummeted. Moulson is averaging only 14 minutes TOI per game. I can't say I blame Bylsma. Why reward a guy with top six minutes if he isn't producing over a three month , 38 game sample size?
Jamie McGinn is playing top line minutes right now because he, Samson Reinhart and Ryan O'Reilly vibe and create so well together. Is McGinn a first line LW? No, but he has been doing a great job. Is Evander Kane a first line left winger? Yes, but when he missed 10 games with his high ankle sprain the 88-90-23 trio got hot and sustained it long after Kane returned. The Kane-Eichel duo on paper looked like a money line last summer, however, the 9-15 duo haven't found success while playing one another this season. Both guys love to have the puck on their sticks as much as possible. The problem being there is only one slab of frozen vulcanized rubber. Eichel has found success with Girgensons and Gionta. Will their prosperity survive long term? No way to predict it, however, I love having a bulldozer LW like Zemgus creating ice for Eichel to create in. Their playing together is a long time coming and I'm thinking that Bylsma will leave this duo together even if/when Gionta cools off. Marcus Foligno, in my opinion, is more than capable of playing in the top nine, however, Bylsma continues to relegate him to L4. Marcus has the size, speed, skill, and strength to play the same role that McGinn and Kane are currently playing. Right now, his best value to the team is to do the grunt work, road grading and heavy lifting for the fourth unit. He will move up the lineup when injuries occur.
The problem with the Sabres right now is that their organizational position of weakness is left wing. William Carrier was acquired in the Ryan Miller-Steve Ott trade and he hasn't shown any signs of NHL promise in his two seasons in Rochester. Jean Dupuy, the Soo Greyhounds power forward, is having himself a solid rookie season for the Amerks. One day, Dupuy will add value to the Sabres as an Adam Mair or Pat Kaleta style energy man. However, he lacks the skill set needed to play in Buffalo's top six.
The strong suit in Buffalo and Rochester today is right wing with Justin Bailey, Nick Baptiste and Evan Rodrigues progressing nicely in their first seasons of pro hockey. The future looks bright for Buffalo at RW when Gionta retires, there will be quality depth to choose from to replace him.
The clock is ticking away on the 2015-16 season. Are the Sabres a playoff contender or a lottery team?
It's my humble opinion that despite their foibles and follies, the Buffalo Sabres are indeed a wild card playoff team.
The Sabres, 34 points, are idle on New Year's Day, however, they find themselves only nine points behind the New Jersey Devils (43) and Detroit Red Wings (43) for an Eastern wild card ticket. The Sabres and Winged Wheel play a matinee in Buffalo on Saturday at 1pm EDT. A regulation win would scootch the Sabres to within 7 points of the Wings for the final wild card spot. They will host the improved Florida Panthers on Tuesday night. The Savres can beat the Panthers IF they can score on Roberto Luongo. Buffalo then heads out on a three-game Western roadie to Chicago on Friday night, Winnipeg next Sunday and Minnesota on Tuesday January 12.
Tim Murray and his scouts have been making their lists and checking them twice. I feel like its long overdue to make a trade to add a top six left winger and a left D-man to the capable core of players that are already assembled in Buffalo.
For the past three months, there have been several frequent fliers to the Buffalo press box in terms of NHL GMs, directors of player personnel, directors of scouting and scouts.
Conversely, the Sabres are sending their scouts east and west in search of the elusive scoring winger and left handed top four D.
One prominent team scouting Buffalo heavily this season is the LA Kings. It comes as no surprise since Tim Murray and Dean Lombardi enjoy their favored nation trading status with one another. Murray respects Lombardi and vice versa. For months, the Kings have been scouting the Sabres. They need a right shot D-man to replace veteran blue liner Matt Greene. On December 15, Greene was placed on long-term injured reserve.
The move will give the Kings options for additional cap space if they need it. Greene underwent shoulder surgery on December 3 and he hasn't played since October 13th. Greene has been a lynch pin in the success of the Kings winning two Stanley Cups in recent years. He carries a $2.5 million salary cap hit this season.
The Kings have organizational depth at left wing.
The Sabres have organizational depth at right D and right wing.
It won't surprise me if we see another Sabres-Kings trade in the near future.
Follow me on this.
Last summer, the Kings hired a pro scout who used to be employed by the Buffalo Sabres from 2011 to 2015. He worked closely with Tim Murray, Kevin Devine, and former GM Darcy Regier . Torrie had been the Buffalo's head amateur scout.
This scout had been the Sabres' head amateur scout, which is a new challenge because he is keeping tabs on pro players. His role has changed. He has transitioned away from scouting young players in the OHL, QMJHL, WHL, NCAA and overseas. Now, he is focused solely on mature NHL players. His role now is central to identifying players to trade for, free agents, and rating pro players.
The Kings have three pro scouts, each with a list of primary teams to follow. Their new pro scout focuses on 10 NHL teams and 10 AHL teams, including Buffalo and Rochester.
Amateur scouts are charged with the tasks like watching younger players and making projections about their potential. Amateur scouts make projections as to whether players will get bigger and stronger at the next level.
Pro scouts follow pro players in the NHL and AHL to determine if players can play larger roles with their respective teams than with their current team. They also help determine whether players are ready to make the transition from the AHL to the NHL.
The pro scout looks at whether a player from another team will be a proper fit for his team. The new Kings pro scout was an amateur scout for his first two years with Buffalo and then became the head amateur scout for the past two seasons.
Hired by Darcy Regier, the Kings scout was involved in the oversight, targeting, scouting and drafting of such noteworthy Buffalo prospects as Joel Armia, Mikhail Grigorenko, Zemgus Girgensons, Jake McCabe, Justin Kea, Linus Ullmark, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher, Connor Hurley, Justin Bailey, Nick Baptiste, Cal Petersen, Gustav Possler, Anthony Florentino, Samson Reinhart, Brendan Lemieux, Eric Cornel, Vaclav Karabacek, Jonas Johansson, Brycen Martin, Jack Eichel, Brenden Guhle, and Will Borgen.
Today, the Sabres and Kings are at opposite ends of the NHL spectrum.
Buffalo hasn't made the playoffs since 2011. Tim Murray is looking for players who can help his improving team to achieve a 2016 wild card spot. LA is one right handed D and another piece away from once again being considered a legit Stanley Cup finalist.
The Kings have organizational depth at left wing. The Sabres have organizational depth at right D.
Perhaps Tim Murray and Dean Lombardi are close to finalizing another mutually beneficial trade.
Who night the Buffalo pro scouts be looking at in the Kings organization?
Michael Mersch, 23, (4th round 2011) the 6'2… 220 lb. left bomber who closely resembles former NHL bad ass Todd Bertuzzi. He made his NHL debut two weeks ago when Trevor Lewis and Kyle Clifford sustained injuries. Mersch plays a gritty, sturdy, strong, low post game. His philosophy is simple: the closer he is to the enemy net, the harder it is for him to miss. He's a scoring bull in a china shop.
His game is very similar to that of Ryan O'Reilly, Jamie McGinn, Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno, Nic Deslauriers and the Sabres. Gone are the days where the majority of goals were scored off the rush in today's NHL, the goals are being scored in the six by six area in front of the goal crease. The priority now is to get pucks to the blue and to hack, slash, and jam away until the red light starts spinning.
In ten games played in LA, Mersch scored his first NHL goal on 12/29. He has also added an assist. Mersch, a natural goal scorer at every level of hockey that he has played at was leading the AHL Ontario Reign in goal scoring with 12 G's in 19 games when he was dispatched to LA. Mersch scored 22 goals and 23 assists last season in AHL Manchester. He also added 13 goals and 9 assists in 18 playoff games in Manchester's championship quest last spring. Another notable positive of Mersch is that he was a four year starter at the University of Wisconsin Badgers where he played with Sabres D-man Jake McCabe for three seasons.
Mersch is too good to play in AHL Ontario for another season. When Lewis and/or Clifford return to the Kings' lineup, Mersch will be the odd man out and down he will go.
Where would Mersch fit in the Buffalo lineup?
I can see Bylsma playing him on the second line left wing with Jack Eichel at center and Evander Kane on right wing. Tyler Ennis was re-injured in Washington on Wednesday night. He was forced to miss the 12/31 games vs. Brooklyn and its not known how long he will be out of the lineup.
Tim Murray can add Mersch's size, strength and scoring by trading pending UFA right D Cody Franson for Mersch. The Kings were one of the teams rumored to be interested in Franson in the off season. Salary cap space was an issue that prohibited the Kings from pursuing him. Why trade Franson now? He is playing a more well rounded game for the past couple of months. He has benefitted greatly from working with his new D coach Terry Murray, who used to be a head coach and a D coach for the Kings. On Friday, right handed D Mark Pysyk returned to practice after he broke a bone in his right foot in November. Pysyk had been paired with Jake McCabe at the time of his injury and the pair was playing very well. Pysyk-McCabe make a great D pair. In Pysyk's absence, McCabe has been playing with Zach Bogosian. You'll recall that Bogosian missed 20_ games at the beginning of the season due to his upper body injury. Its almost as if Pysyk was injured when Bogosian was cleared for return. When Pysyk returns, he will likely be paired with McCabe on the second unit with Gorges and Ristolainen on the top unit. That would leave Mike Weber and Bogosian on the third pair. Pysyk's return to the lineup will likely render Franson the seventh D-man. Franson will be UFA come July 1.
Murray has already acquired future right winger Hudson Fasching and current jack hammer Nic Deslauriers by way of the Kings.
Perhaps the Kings would include a veteran left shot D like Alec Martinez or Jake Muzzin in exchange for Tyler Ennis and right wing prospect Nick Baptiste.
Martinez, 28, and Muzzin, 26, have been key cogs in the Kings' two recent Stanley Cup victories. Martinez is a $4 million AAV until 2021. Muzzin is a $4 million AAV until 2020. Terry Murray mentored and groomed Martinez and Muzzin into productive, reliable 5 on 5 and PP defensemen.
Martinez is 6'1" and 210 lbs. He has 4 goals and 13 assists this season and averages 21:38 TOI. He scored 6 goals and added 16 assists last season.
Muzzin is 6'3" and 220 lbs. He averages 22:38 TOI this season. He has 4 goals and 13 assists this season. He scored 10 goals and 31 assists last season.
The Kings and Sabres have the resources to help one another achieve their 2016 organizational goals.