There are two lightning rod players who have largely underperformed for the Oilers this year and contributed greatly to the team not being where both fans and management had hoped it would be. Interestingly enough they both came to the Oilers amidst some modicum of controversy and both appear to be doing better of late, though still have a long way to go. But, if the team is going to start getting better they need Justin Schultz and Nail Yakupov to be more effective.
The good news is that by eye they have both started to look much better under Todd Nelson than they did in the first half of this season. Neither are world beaters right now but both look more assertive than they did before. It’s a start.
NAIL
So here’s what I’m seeing from Yakupov. He looks like he has more of a jump in his step. He looks like he’s skating faster in every game of late and I don’t think we can discount how some increased ice time might be affecting his play. NHL coaches have 1 thing they alone control to get players doing the things they want and that’s ice time.
Under Eakins we saw the player (at times) do the things the coach asked of him, even Eakins would say Nail was doing the things asked of him, but there was no bump in ice time. Nail Yakupov’s season ice time average is 14:37. In 6 of the last 7 games Nelson has played him more than that.
I think beyond simply coming into his own and gaining experience, Nail Yakupov may also be reacting positively to the reinforcement he’s getting from the staff this time around. At least, that’s my working theory on it all.
Yakupov is playing at high speed, creating lots of chances even though he isn’t scoring, and he’s playing a physical game. It’s very nice to see and since he is one of my favorite Oiler personalities I have to admit that it's something I've been hoping for. But what do the numbers say?
I’ve broken things down to a pre-December 30th when Nelson took over as a solo coach and post-December 30th. Or, Pre-Solo Nelson and Post-Solo Nelson. Also, I’m looking at 5v5 and Power Play numbers.
Pre-Nelson 5v5: 36GP, 0.8 P/60, 48.5% CF, 94.4 PDO Post Nelson 5v5: 14GP, 1.4 P/60, 41.1% CF, 99.5 PDO Pre-Nelson PP: 36GP, 1.7 P/60, 91.9% CF, 101.1 PDO Post-Nelson PP: 14GP, 2.7 P/60, 90.2% CF, 114.3 PDO
We can see straight away that from a pure possession standpoint that 5v5 Yak is getting caved in under Nelson. However, he has also increased his offensive output by 75%. It may be entirely coincidental based on the fact that the team added an NHL player in Roy to center that line but Nail Yakupov’s PDO has returned to near normal levels. On the PP the PDO is significantly higher, but it’s actually supposed to be pretty high on the man-advantage.
If that line can start playing with the puck more frequently then hopefully those scoring numbers can rise once again. The good news for Yak is that while he still can’t score any goals, Roy and Pouliot are shooting the lights out and that means there are points to pick up.
SCHULTZ
There has been no player except for maybe Ben Scrivens (and even then) that I have been more critical of than Justin Schultz. For the majority of this season he has been ineffective as a defender and as an attacker. I have been especially critical of his shooting rates and his physical play (or lack thereof).
Over the past several games I have been much more pleased with the direction of Schultz’ game. He was trending the wrong direction before, but under Nelson he started playing the body much more frequently. He’s still prone to the occasional mistake but he might be playing the best 2-way hockey of his career in the last 6-7 games.
He is jumping up in the play a little more frequently and also making an effort to battle for the puck in his own zone. Even with a lot of work ahead to enhance his game, he has been a big part in the team winning more games recently. It’s very pleasant to witness.
So here are the numbers again for Schultz.
Pre-Nelson 5v5: 35GP, 1.2 P/60, 51.0% CF, 98.5 PDO Post Nelson 5v5: 14GP, 0.7 P/G, 51.3% CF, 105.3 PDO Pre-Nelson PP: 35GP, 1.9 P/60, 90.4% CF, 81.6 PDO Post-Nelson PP: 14GP, 4.4 P/60, 94.7% CF, 109.3 PDO
With Schultz we see his effectiveness 5v5 has changed very little in terms of possession but Nelson does have him shooting a little more frequently. His points are down but his PDO is up significantly. On the Power Play is where Justin Schultz has started to find his scoring touch again. He increased his output by 132% under Todd Nelson. You can see that PDO finally came back to normal levels on the PP. Something in the 80’s would be what you might expect if you opened the Mummy’s tomb and were indeed cursed.
That 4.4 P/60 number on the PP that Justin Schultz is sporting with Nelson as the Head Coach is in the same range as Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, and Brent Burns. It’s not the elite of the elite, but it’s damn fine company. And, it’s a start.
THOUGHTS
The Oilers need these two players to start trending in the right direction. For some reason or another it looks like they have been under Todd Nelson. It isn’t Mission Accomplished, but it’s a positive arrow in a season with so many downward pointing ones. I’ll take it.
It’s only 14 games into Todd Nelson’s era as the Oilers coach and it’s too early to give him all the credit for these turnarounds. For Yak, he has always been a streaky player and this might be a brief upswing. Also, he only started to turn things around when the team acquired an NHL center to play with him. There is no definitive proof that Nelson is a Yak Whisperer.
As for Schultz, I really do think that somebody sat him down and told him he needed to step his game up in his own zone. I don’t know if it was Nelson, or Ramsay, or there was a team intervention, but the turn around in his physical game has impressed me. His improved PP numbers have done even more to that end.
The Oilers need these guys to become the best possible versions of themselves if they want to win. Maybe this is the start of that.
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