Yahoo: Capitals Devastated After Another Playoff Shortfall
ESPN: Ovechkin Era Now 11 Seasons Old - and the Capitals are Yet to Make Conference Finals
Seems a basic rule of hockey. Crosby always beats Ovechkin when it matters.
— Damien Cox (@DamoSpin) May 11, 2016
I could go on, but you get it. Ovechkin just can't win when it counts. He's a regular season wonder. Kuznetzov choked. This team just isn't built for the Playoffs.
Etc. Etc. Etc.
(Parenthetical Remark #1: People always mock me when I say "Results Don't Matter," and maybe they are right. Results do matter. They are, emphatically, the only thing we care about.)
We should realize that the result of a game between two evenly matched teams is essentially random - at least if both teams show up. In the Pittsburgh /Washington series, both teams showed up.
Game 1: Washington 4-3 (OT) Game 2: Penguins 2-1 Game 3: Penguins 3-2 Game 4: Penguins 3-2 (OT) Game 5: Washington 3-1 Game 6: Penguins 4-3 (OT)
Five of six games were decided by a single goal.
Three of six games went into overtime.
The only game won by more than a single goal was won by the team that ultimately lost the series.
The score after six games was 16-16.
Game 1 was virtually even, Game 2 the Penguins were better.
Washington was the slightly better team in Game Four, but lost. In Game Five, Pittsburgh made up for Game 3 by being better and losing, although they weren't close to as dominant as Washington was in Game 3.
Last night, the Penguins were slightly better, and they won.
Overall, Washington lost two games they deserved to win and the Penguins lost one game in which they deserved to win.
This isn't to make excuses, because I don't think anyone needs an excuse. This is just to point out that our analysis of what happens is way too clouded by the outcome of the game.
It's way too easy to say "Oh Washington failed again, they just aren't a playoff team. Ovechkin just isn't leadery enough."
But, if you actually look at what happens when two great teams play each other - it just comes down to luck.
(Parenthetical Remark #2: When you put something besides a lottery down to luck, people feel ripped off and they don't like it. It's easier to assume a false sense of control than to face the fact that luck is basically the most dominant factor in everything.)
So no one should be ripping Ovechkin, or the team the Capitals built. In a sample size of 82 games, they were the best team. In a seven-game series, they ran into a hot goalie in game three that meant that instead of last night's overtime goal forcing game seven, it sent them home for the summer.
As improbably as losing four straight Super Bowls is, no one talks about how deserving of the early 90's Buffalo Bills were of at least one Championship. The fact that making four straight Super Bowls is a vastly superior achievement - in terms of long odds and difficulty - to winning just a one-off Championship, is not something virtually anyone cares about.
But analysts owe us better than that. The Capitals deserve better.
Alex Ovechkin did everything the best player in the league is supposed to do, and his team still lost.
Alex Burakovsky scored one 5v5 goal in 12 games. Had he scored, even once more, the Caps are probably still playing. And yet, he was a frightfully impressive 59.74 CF over this year's Playoffs.
This means he played amazing and had terrible luck. 60% Corsi is above league-best territory.
Kuznetzov didn't have a point at 5v5 in the entire playoffs, despite controlling 55% of the play when he was on the ice. He didn't play bad. He didn't disappear. The Puck just didn't go in.
If there's a point to all this, it's that the Capitals - Cup or Not - have built a great team that has nothing to do with the past 11 years or that Ovechkin has never made it out of the second round.
(Parenthetical Remark #3: How come no one ever talks about the time in 2010 when - while channeling the ghost of Dominik Hasek - Jaroslav Halek put on the goalie clinic of a lifetime to knock out the far superior Capitals? )
Ovechkin has been consistently amazing for 11 years. The Capitals have been in the Playoffs for 8 of those years and were Cup Contenders basically every time.
The lost in the Playoffs to the aforementioned Halek, the current Con Smythe Favorite Matt Murray and 3 X to first ballot Hall of Famer Henrik Lundqvist.
Just ignore every negative thing you hear about Ovechkin or the Capitals.
None of it's true.