The Coyotes will play the Rangers tonight, hoping to extend their eight game losing streak. Mike Smith gets the start in goal even though rookie goalie Louis Domingue has been recalled. Also recalled and making his NHL debut will be Henrik Samuelsson.
Samuelsson, along with Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Brandon Perlini and to a lesser extend Tobias Reider, Lucas Lessio, Tyler Gaudet and Laurent Dauphin represent the Coyotes future at centre and the wings.
It is not a great group, in that no one player really stands out as being a blue-chip no-doubt superstar. However, it if you measure by overall average, it's an impressive group with a ton of potential. Of the eight players listed, it's possible they could all end up as NHL regulars and likely that at least six of them will
Maybe Domi or Dvorak could be stars - maybe even elite, you never know. One or two other ones could surprise - it's impossible to tell right now, but considering this is the beginning and not the end of a tank job, I think that is a very impressive eight prospects to begin with.
On defense, things are even better. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is already one of the best defensemen in hockey, Comnor Murphpy, Michael Stone and Brandon Gormley already could make up a decent NHL top four. This is vastly better than most "rebuilding" teams begin with.
The team also will probably - or at least should - continue forward with Boedker, Hanzal and Chipchurra - good, vastly underrated players all. But that also means that everyone else on the roster can be converted into an asset or pick going forward. (Except Doan).
When combined, the foundation on which the Coyotes have to rebuild is excellent. Add in a very high draft pick this summer and things are looking good.
But there is one thing that can put this whole thing into overdrive: The return on Keith Yandle:
Now, Keith Yandle is a contentious player and whenever I write about him the comment section goes crazy. That is because Yandle's reputation is that of a high-risk/ high-reward offensive defenseman who is terrible at defense.
Then there is the famous USA snub, which people site as conclusive proof that I don't know what I am talking about - almost as if "Appealing to the Experts" wasn't a logical fallacy taught in every sixth grade critical thinking class the world over. But I digress.
Anytime someone writes that a player is better or worse than their reputation there is bound to be a lively comments section - but really, even though we all have super-strong opinions, if we're honest, most of those come from what we see in highlights, what we read and what people we respect say - as amateur hockey enthusiasts, we just don't have the time to watch six games per night. Ergo, most amateur player evaluations are based highly in reputation. (Actually, so are most scouts evaluations, but that is a conversation for another day).
Some people might not agree with advanced stats and that is their prerogative. Hockey is a game and you can enjoy it however you want to. I would ask though that you refrain from calling me an idiot when I use data to make a point and your "proof" boils down to your own opinion. You could be right - but I hope you can see that the guy making claims - even faulty ones - has a better argument when he uses data.
This doesn't mean that Yandle is my favorite player or that I can't be wrong. There is not a single opinion that I hold that I won't change if shown proof. If someone can show me definitively why Yandle's defensive lapses are worse than I think and not countered by his great offense, I would change my mind, but again, I digress.
Science has conclusively proven that even the most objective human in existence is subject to amounts massive confirmation bias - which means that all of us, no matter our profession or hockey watching experience, can't help seeing exactly what we want to; what we already believe.
Now, this isn't an extreme viewpoint; it's a fact of life. Knowing this doesn't mean that you don't have to watch, it just means you should be skeptical of your conclusions when there is data that suggests they might be wrong.
This doesn't mean you have to accept the data unquestionably. No one is saying that. But, what it does mean, is that if you are interested in knowing the truth, as opposed to just being right or getting your way, that you should be open to the ideas that advanced stats have called into question.
Again, no one is saying these are solid 100% facts, but there are ideas or conventions that people pouring through massive amounts of data have exposed as possibly - probably - flawed.
This is one of the main reasons that advanced stats have caught on in the way they have - and also the main reason people are so opposed to them.
For instance, face-offs. Statistically, it is said that winning 45 more face-offs than your opponent to roughly equal a goal. No one is saying that face-offs aren't occasionally important, but if this is true, then clearly they aren't as important as we've been lead to believe.
Another is the value of offensive defensemen. It might seem counter-intuitive but it turns out that they are vastly superior to defensive defensemen in preventing goals. By simply keeping the puck in the other team's end, the offensive defensemen plays a kind of proxy defense that is more effective at preventing goals than playing defense, since whenever a "defensive defenseman" is employing his chief skill, the other team has the puck.
Now, you don't have to believe this, but if you're reading this you do have the internet and you can look it up - no need to take my word for it. I find it interesting and convincing. Maybe you do, maybe you don't.
But if you're honest, ask yourself how you "know" that Yandle isn't "one of the best defenseman in the NHL." I mean, how do you?
Here's a link to a pretty detailed statistical analysis of Yandle that I did back in December when I declared him one of the best D in the NHL.
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=65178
Now, say what you will, but Yandle has not finished out of the top five in CF% among defensemen for the last five years, and since 2009 he is the second highest scoring 5v5 defensemen, after only Duncan Keith.
Furthermore, since 2010 he has finished outside the top ten in scoring among D only once.
Anyways, it can't be argued that Yandle is an elite point producer and it cannot be argued that he drives possession as well or better than virtually any defensmen in hockey over the last five years.
You can look at his glaring errors in his own zone, but the math says he more than accounts for them. You can say he doesn't kill penalties - and it's true - but you play 75% of the game at regular strength and the data says that if he's not the best in the biz, he's close.
Even never killing a single penalty, he still plays close to half the game, and while he's on the ice, even if it's with four other Coyotes, his team is one of the best in the league.
On the Power Play? Forget about it. Who would you rather want? Not too many guys, if any.
Call 1-800-DOCTORB - The Extra B is for Bargain!
That's right, not only do the Coyotes have one of the best defensemen in the NHL up on the trade block, but the guy is an absolute bargain at just over a $5 million cap hit.
Since the Coyotes have no cap troubles to speak of, they can easily take on salary in order to facilitate a deal.
Furthermore, he is the single best player available right now in the NHL. And that includes Phil Kessel if he is indeed on the block.
You can't overestimate what adding a player who quite literally makes his team one of the best in hockey whenever he's on the ice. If a team wants to win the Cup this year, there is a legitimate Power Play QB who also happens to be a number-one defenseman, and he's available.
And, the team who gets him isn't getting a rental. They are going to get two Playoffs out of Yandle.
Now that the market has been set with Sekara going for a first +, the Coyotes have to get aggressive and trade Yandle. His age and price tag simply will not fit into their rebuild and he thus becomes most valuable to them through a trade.
And I can't take anyone saying "it's more likely he'll be moved at the draft." If that is the case then the Coyotes are run by idiots. The price of a rental player is never the sane as the price of a player who is under contract. The Coyotes have THE chip to play at this years deadline.
If they don't move him now, it is an absolute failure. I can't be more clear in that: Maloney should be fired for blowing it if next Tuesday comes and Yandle is still in Arizona. And I actually like Maloney.
If they don't play it, all they are doing is backing themselves into a corner a la Edmonton and the infamous Hemsky situation.
What the Coyotes can get for Keith Yandle should be a massive package that will accelerate the rebuild by lightyears. They already have a foundation most rebuilding teams would kill for. Add in the potentially franchise altering centre they will draft this summer and a package for one of the league's (at worst) top ten defensemen, and you're talking about a team that can be competitive way faster than anyone thinks is truly realistic.
Maloney has a rare chance to parlay a top player into a couple seasons worth of rebuilding in one fell swoop.
But he only has five days.