It is a commentary on the current state of the Toronto Maple Leafs that the only thing fans can look forward to with a positive outlook in the final seven weeks of the regular season is the hope that fellow NHL bottom dwellers will post wins on the out-of-town scoreboard and give Toronto a better chance at striking gold at the upcoming NHL Draft in Sunrise, FL.
The Leafs have 51 points in 58 games(26th overall) and are expected to move more players off their roster before March 2 as part of the coming rebuild, which will increase the chances of their tumbling in the standings and snagging a first round pick in the single digits.
After years of patchwork attempts to make Toronto a playoff contender with free agent signings and trades, the organization appears to have bought into the blueprint that many top clubs have followed in recent years, by drafting and developing their own cornerstone players.
“We have to do things the right way and that may mean starting from the beginning and building it up moving forward.… Leafs Assistant GM Kyle Dubas stated at the Conn Smythe Dinner on Wednesday. “I don’t think the people here want any sort of quick fixes or band-aids put on it anymore.…
Many experts consider the 2015 Draft the deepest crop in years, so even if Toronto were to get the seventh or eighth pick, they could end up with a top end talent like London’s Mitch Marner, Finnish prospect Mikko Rantanen or Russian defenseman Ivan Provorov of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, but finishing in the top five would give the Leafs a reasonable chance to win the draft lottery and failing that to draft a potential #1 center in Erie’s Dylan Strome.
Currently, Toronto has a 8.5% chance to select first overall, 54.5% to remain with the fifth pick and 37% to draft sixth if a lower team wins the lottery.
It is mathematically improbable that Toronto can catch Dallas, Florida(11 points ahead), Colorado(8 points) or Philadelphia(7 points), all who have played the same amount of games or have games in hand.
Ottawa and Columbus are within range but trending upward and are not expected to move out significant players at the trade deadline.
The Sens moved five points ahead of the Leafs with a 4-2 win over Montreal at Canadian Tire Center on Wednesday and have played only 56 games. Columbus is two points ahead but has played three less games than Toronto and could be getting Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky back from injury in the next week.
The only club currently ahead of the Leafs that could slip backwards is New Jersey, who have 53 points but are expected to shop many of their 10 pending unrestricted free agents, including veterans Patrik Elias, Jaromir Jagr, Michael Ryder and Marek Zidlicky.
A key game for the aspirations of a lower pick is the Leafs next game in Raleigh against Carolina Hurricanes, who are four points behind Toronto with two games in hand.
The Canes started slowly under new coach Bill Peters but are over .500 since Jordan Staal returned from injury in late December, but GM Ron Francis is likely to move free agents Andrej Sekera, Jay McClement, Tim Gleason and Jiri Tlusty for future assets.
Arizona also trail the Leafs by four points and are not likely to after moving center Antoine Vermette and defenseman Zbenyk Michalek in the next two weeks, but the Edmonton Oilers could make a late season run. The Oilers moved to within seven points of Toronto with a 4-3 shootout victory over Boston on Wednesday and are 10-10-3 under head coach Todd Nelson.
Barring an unforeseen mega-deal involving a Jordan Eberle or Nail Yakupov, Edmonton are expected to move only defenseman Jeff Petry. The young Oilers appear more focused trying to get their house in order than getting situated for another top pick and if they continue to play .500, catching the Leafs is not out of the realm of possibility.
Buffalo is 15 points behind Toronto and comfortably sitting in McEichelville.
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TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on 1050’s Leafs Breakfast on Thursday that at least six teams have expressed interest in defenseman Roman Polak.
The 28-year-old right-handed shooting blueliner has another season left at $2.75 Million, which may make him more attractive to contending clubs who are being asked for high picks and prospects for rent-a-players who will be testing free agency in the summer.
According to Bob McKenzie, one team that may be among the six interested in Polak is the Montreal Canadiens, who are without veteran Sergei Gonchar, who has not played since being checked into the end boards by Toronto’s David Clarkson on Saturday, lost defenseman Alexei Emelin to a shoulder injury on Wednesday and could have another injury as former Norris Trophy winner PK Subban took a slap shot off the skate in the loss to Ottawa.
Emelin is expected to be out up to six weeks and Subban's status is unknown.
Montreal GM Marc Bergevin, assistants Larry Carriere and Rick Dudley observed the Leafs – Panthers game on Tuesday and could be ready to spring into action to bolster themselves up front and on the blueline in the very wide open Eastern Conference playoff race.
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