With training camp literally around the corner, many hockey fans are getting ready to draft their fantasy hockey teams for the 2015-2016. This post will focus on my take and some projections for Habs goalies and defencemen that you might consider drafting this season. I’ll come back with another post just for the forwards. Just a forewarning, I am focusing on points projections. If your draft rewards points for penalty minutes, blocked shots etc…. sorry I won’t be of much help!
Goalies:
Some drafts let you pick teams (ie: Montreal, Boston...) and in other ones you draft the individual goalie. If you get the chance, Carey Price should absolutely be the 1st goalie you draft on your team. He was tops in just about every major category, leading the league in Wins with 44, Goals Against Average at 1.96 and save percentage at .933. He was tied for 2nd with 9 shutouts, only one behind leader Marc-Andre Fleury. Barring injuries, there is no reason why Price should not maintain his other worldly form and put up similar numbers. I would consider it an off year if his stats are anything outside the top 5 goalies in the league. If in your fantasy league you draft goalies by the team rather than the individual, than Montreal is still worthy of a top 3 pick as Price will more than carry back up goalie Dustin Tokarski. I would also expect Tokarski to rebound from his so-so 2014-2015 season and be a little more consistent. If not goalies Mike Condon or Zachary Fucale will be waiting in the wings.
Defencemen:
P.K. Subban
After Erik Karlsson, there is no reason why P.K. Subban should not be the next defenceman drafted on your board. He recorded his best numbers in 2014-2015 season with 15 goals, 45 assists and 60 points. Subban’s 8 powerplay goals and 13 pp assists were quite respectable, but imagine what his numbers could have been had the Canadiens powerplay been better? This season I would expect 60-70 points, 15-20 goals. The number of powerplay assists should go up. Consider this, in the shortened season of 2012-2013 Subban had 26 powerplay points in just 42 games. There is no reason that he cannot pick up another 5 points on the powerplay season to bring his totals closer to 65 points. Other than an extended injury, the only way I could see Subban’s points going down this season is if Petry and Beaulieu contribute and play more on the second wave of the powerplay, taking away some of Subban’s ice time.
Andrei Markov
Markov is coming off an excellent 2014-2015 campaign with 50 points in 81 games. However, some people may be hesitant to pick Markov up after his disappointing playoffs. Exactly half of his points came on the powerplay. While I imagine and hope that the Canadiens will try to manage Markov’s minutes a little more appropriately this season, I don’t think his production should falter too much. He should not be out there for close to the full two minutes of a powerplay anymore, that much is evident to just about everyone. However, hopefully with the input of coaching consultant Craig Ramsay, the Canadiens will be more effective and score a little more often - resulting in points for Markov. I think it would 45-50 points with another 10 goals are fair expectations for Markov.
Jeff Petry
Petry is a trickier player to project. He has never had a season in which he recorded more than 25 points. The most goals he has scored was 7. Not exactly stirling number but perhaps okay for a # 3/ #4 defenceman. However, expectations will be high for him as the Canadiens signed him to a big contract. Last season he had 22 points in 78 games. I think that 30-35 points is achievable if Petry gets a real opportunity to play on the powerplay. Surprisingly, he has never scored more than one powerplay goal in a season. I think 3-5 PP goals is possible if takes some of Markov’s time. In one sense the pressure is off of him as he won’t be asked to play like a #1/#2 as he did Edmonton. On the other hand, if he doesn’t produce fans won’t be very happy with his $5.5 million AAV contract.
Nathan Beaulieu
This will be Beaulieu’s first full season with the Canadiens and fans are looking forward to seeing him as a regular member of the Habs top 6. With 9 points in 64 games, Beaulieu didn’t exactly light it up with Montreal. However, we have seen flashes of his offensive potential and with time, proper coaching and the chance to get real powerplay minutes (not the last 10 seconds), Beaulieu could reach 20-30 points in a full season. His passing is very accurate and he reads the play in the offensive zone. He loves to pinch but is fast enough to get back in time as well. If Petry and Markov take him under their wing and Ramsay includes him in the Habs powerplay plans, I think that approximately 5 goals and 15-20 assists are realistic expectations for Beaulieu. If you participate in a keeper league, Beaulieu could be an inexpensive option as a project.
Next time, forwards!
Thanks and have a great long weekend everyone!
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