For the third time in a span of nine nights, the Philadelphia Flyers dominated an opponent in shots on goal and overall shot attempts only to come away with a loss at the end of the night. On Thursday night at the Air Canada Centre, the Flyers dropped a 3-2 regulation decision to the Toronto Maple Leafs despite a 49-17 shot advantage and an 89-37 shot attempt disparity.
Semi-breakaway goals by Phil Kessel in the first period and Tyler Bozak in the second period built a 2-0 lead for Toronto on eight shots. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Wayne Simmonds at the end of the second period was turned into a Dion Phaneuf power play goal early in the third period as Toronto extended the lead to 3-0.
The Flyers rallied for power play goals by Claude Giroux and Brayden Schenn to cut the gap to one goal with 5:33 remaining in the game. They could not find an equalizer.
Jonathan Bernier stopped 47 of 49 shots to earn the win in goal for Toronto. Flyers starter Rob Zepp (six saves on eight shots) was pulled by Craig Berube after the Bozak goal. Neither Kessel nor Bozak's goals were soft goals. Steve Mason, making his return from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, stopped eight of nine shots in relief and ended up getting charged with the loss because Phaneuf's heavily screened power play goal in the third period officially became the game winner after the Flyers erased two-thirds of their deficit.
Overall, the Flyers' effort in Toronto was eminently better than how they played in losing 4-1 in Carolina on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, all that matters is what the final score shows at the end of the night. The Flyers came away from their two-game road trip with zero points.
This game marked the third time in a span of nine nights that the Flyers dominated in shots and shot attempts but failed to earn a much-needed win.
On Feb. 17 against Columbus, the Flyers attempted 85 shots (44 on net, 22 blocked, 19 missed) to 38 attempted by the Blue Jackets (25 on net, five blocked, eight missed). The end result was still a 5-2 loss for the Flyers.
Two nights later against Buffalo, Philadelphia attempted 84 shots in the game (24 on net, 24 missed, 22 blocked). The Sabres attempted 53 shots (32 on goal, 11 blocked, 10 missed). At the end of the night, the Flyers left the building with one point from a 3-2 shootout loss.
In Thursday's game, the shot attempts broke down as follows. Of the 89 shots the Flyers attempted, 49 were on goal, 19 were blocked and 21 missed the net. Toronto's 37 shot attempts resulted in 17 on net, 10 that got blocked and 10 misses.
Talk all you want about Corsi numbers, shooting percentages and goalie save percentages reverting to norms over bigger sample sizes of games. That is absolutely zero solace when a must-win game results in losses. Ask the Flyers this morning if they'd have traded off the shot totals in the Columbus, Buffalo and Toronto games in exchange for wins.
Hockey coaches often talk about putting the process ahead of the result. In other words, if a team plays the game the right way, there were still be some nights where the outcome is unfavorable. However, if a solid process is followed consistently, there will be a lot more wins than losses. Meanwhile, there will also be a certain percentage of games where a team is outplayed but stellar goaltending and/or a few fortuitous bounces lead to wins.
All of this is tried-and-true hockey wisdom. Here's the problem, though. The Flyers put themselves in a position where there is no margin for error. They put themselves into a position where the result alone matters and every loss is a bitter pill to swallow. The regulation loss in Toronto in the regulation loss in Carolina look identical in the standings. The Flyers only have 20 games left now; still trailing Boston by four points with a tiebreaker disadvantage and with the Bruins holding two games in hand (meaningless except for the fact that these are yet two additional games where the Flyers need other teams to help them out).
In the NHL, any team can beat any other club on a given night. No game is a guaranteed win before its been played. The way Carolina played against the Flyers on Tuesday, it is fair to say that the Hurricanes would have beaten most opponents on that night. Their overall record may be poor, but they were a very good team in that particular game.
Here is the ultimate example of why every opponent in the NHL is dangerous in its own way: the lowly Buffalo Sabres are the underdog in each and every game they play. No one would dispute that. However, when viewed from this perspective, it must also be said that the Sabres have pulled off 19 upset wins this season.
Yes, one of the characteristics of most playoff-worthy teams is that they find ways to beat teams below them in the standings. A bigger concern, though, is that the Flyers can't win on the road. Their 9-17-6 road record is one of the most disappointing things about the team this season.
Over the course of any given season, every club is going to have a few games like the ones the Flyers had last night or last Tuesday against Columbus. The difference is that top teams build a cushion where they can simply shrug off such losses when they happen. The Flyers have no such luxury.
Final thoughts: Scoring first still makes a big difference in the NHL. The median winning percentage this season simply by scoring first is .692, while 26 of the 30 teams in the league at least have a winning record when scoring first.
The Flyers are 18-2-6 this season when scoring first. They are 8-23-5 when trailing first. To break things down by outshooting/getting outshot differentials the Flyers are 16-13-3 when outshooting opponents and 10-12-8 when getting outshot.
Philly never led at any point in the games against Columbus, Buffalo or Toronto. That was a lot more meaningful than the shot disparities. What was the number one thing the Flyers did well during their nine-game point streak? They scored first, so they were able to avoid having to chase the game.