Last year Jim Rutherford made two trades at the deadline that involved a defenseman for defenseman swap. One was panned by anybody with a pulse (Simon Despres for Ben Lovejoy) and the other one was met with acceptance (Ian Cole for Robert Bortuzzo). Trading away Simon Despres received most of the attention because of the shock value of the trade. There is no going back on that one but Ben Lovejoy is definitely an above average bottom pairing player. The key will be actually keeping him in that role.
Do the Penguins have enough legitimate options so that Lovejoy stays in that role?
Pittsburgh's two sure fire top four defenseman are Kris Letang and Olli Maatta. If healthy these two will be able to play big minutes for the club. After that there aren't as many sure things. For me the three favorites for the second pairing role on defense are Ian Cole, Ben Lovejoy , and Derrick Pouliiot. In a perfect world Pouliot will earn that role early on and stay there for the entire season. We'll see.
The way that Pittsburgh's defense depth is structured means Ian Cole has to be able to play top four minutes. The good news? It is likely that he will be able to accomplish this and here is the evidence
Penguins defenseman Ian Cole might be an unknown elite possession driver http://t.co/0GR6AQRbaI pic.twitter.com/xyqJ5vJpqH
— Andrew Berkshire (@AndrewBerkshire) September 12, 2015
This research uses Possession Driving Events (PDE) which is defined as the following
Possession driving events are plays that move the puck into the offensive zone, meaning controlled exits from the defensive zone, controlled entries into the offensive zone, crossing centre ice with the puck, successful outlet passes, successful stretch passes, and successful North, East, or West passes in the neutral zone.
Super encouraging. Pittsburgh and St. Louis are both pretty decent possession teams and Ian Cole is playing better than the team average for both clubs. Mike Johnston's system is built for and thrives on PDE's so this is a really great sign.
There is more good news on the Ian Cole front. He compares favorably in this department to other high end defensemen from around the league
Anytime you can be in the same data range as players like Erik Karlsson, PK Subban, Drew Doughty, and Alex Pietrangelo is a good thing.
However, here is an important thing to point out with this data set. Those top end defensemen all play top pairing minutes while Ian Cole and Morgan Rielly really haven't. Can Ian Cole maintain this standard as he starts to receive a less sheltered role?
It has happened before and you can point to the other defenseman on that chart as an example. Nick Leddy received low ice time relatively speaking when he was a member of the loaded Chicago Blackhawks. Since being traded to the New York Islanders his time on ice has increased from 16:22 to 20:22. His standard of play did not drop. In fact Nick Leddy had a tremendous first season in New York. His dCorsi of 7.02 means he significantly outperformed his new elevated role.
Ian Cole averaged right around ~15 minutes per game his last two years in St. Louis and in his 20 regular season games in Pittsburgh he averaged 18:29. Cole has looked good so far in his Pittsburgh tenure so chances are he will be able to make a successful transition to more ice time much like Nick Leddy. Ian Cole's dCorsi with St. Louis was a healthy 7.19 in that sheltered role which indicates that he is definitely more capable of an increased workload. In Pittsburgh his role did increase and his dCorsi was 2.80. While that number looks a lot less than 7.19 it still means he was significantly outperforming his role new role in Pittsburgh(0.00 means player is performing right at expected levels in their role).
Pittsburgh's biggest question mark going into the season will be its defensive depth. With Ian Cole looking the part as a top four defenseman that is one less spot to worry about.
**** Brand new Hockey Hurts podcast discusses the best and worst moves made by teams in the Central Division as well as the Cody Franson signing by Buffalo. You can find that here
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