We take a break - don't worry, it will only be a brief one - from the all Derek Stepan station to discuss one of the acquisitions the Rangers made at the draft. Heading into the draft, there was a pretty good shot Carl Hagelin would be dealt. However, I don't think any of us had Anaheim as a landing destination or Emerson Etem as the main piece that would come back to the Rangers.
Hagelin was dealt because of his perceived or expected salary demands, which priced him out of what the Rangers felt they could afford. In Hagelin, we know what's lost from New York; a strong forechecker, who uses his speed to help create chances. In addition, he contributes closer to 20 goals while also seeing time on the penalty kill. In the charts below, his advanced stats reflect a player who may be a bit more valuable than we even realized and certainly recognized.
To be brutally honest, when I first heard of the trade, and believe I wrote this in my draft recap, I was less than thrilled. Etem, selected 29th in that infamous – at least to Rangers’ fans – 2010 draft, has yet to even close to live up to his draft selection. At the time he was selected, many felt that the pick was driven or at least influenced by Etem being a California kid going to a California team. Since that selection, he has bounced in and out of the lineup and up and down between the NHL and AHL.
When doing some analysis of Etem vs. Hagelin, as you will see below there is a marked difference between the two. Hagelin has a much greater impact on his teammates, in suppressing and generating shots and in his production (seen in the Hero chart). With that said, now what?
Impact on Linemates:
Etem
Hagelin:
Shot Generation and Suppression
Etem
Hagelin
HERO
Etem
Hagelin
What Etem does bring is a combination of speed, albeit less than Hagelin, and size, a bit similar to Chris Kreider, after which game he wants to model his game. That addition in size with the acquisition of Etem, as well as Viktor Stalberg, seems to be the direction New York wanted to head in this offseason. The last two seasons, we spoke about how while NY had speed, they lacked size, which hurt their ability to control the puck and impart their will on opponents. Now, they appear to be leaning more to the hybrid of speed and size, which is something Etem brings to the table. It's that meshing of approaches that signals a bit of a mindshift away from just speed to one where the speed can create chances along with the ability to be more physical, especially down low in the offensive zone.
Etem clearly needed a change of scenery, as he knows he went somewhat stale in Anaheim. He gets that in NY, in a system that should play to his strengths. But his lack of production to date makes relying on him dangerous.
In a perfect world, Etem would able to step into the breach left by the departure of Martin St. Louis, replacing the 21 goals and 30 assists he notched last season. I think the Rangers would be happy if he matched the 17 goals and 18 assists that Hagelin tallied in 2014-15 while moving between the second and third lines. To me, if you view him as a possible second liner, then somewhere between St. Louis and Hagelin should be the baseline, as that would enable Etem to play on the second, but more likely, the third line.
The jury is very far out on Etem. For now, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and give him some slack. But a slow start and that rope will fray quickly.