For anyone who only wants to read about hockey, just skip below the ---------.
With about a week to go, the Kickstarter is about 2/3 funded – a big thank you to everyone who has contributed and also those who have offered encouragement.
2 quick things:
1) For regular readers over the years (who have not yet contributed), I ask you to consider a small gesture of support. For 2 or 5 or up to 10 years of my writing at Hockeybuzz, please consider the equivalent of buying me a cup of coffee ($5 contribution) or lunch ($10 contribution). I promise to put it to great use.
2) I know some people have suggested that this be funded by investors or business sponsorships. Accepting this feedback, I am trying to get a couple businesses to make small pledges into the Kickstarter. I am optimistic that I can fund the growth of the site with some sponsorships and revenue from the site, but right now selling “I don’t actually have anything yet… is a bit early and mostly generates “Give me a call once you actually have a site.… I need help getting to something first.
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In my blog from late last week which you can find HERE, I identified adding a top 4 defenseman as the Carolina Hurricanes biggest need this summer. I also went on to say that I thought the prospects of adding a top 4 defenseman via trade looked more promising than the free agent market. The free agent crop for defenseman is even thinner than usual this summer and become one option thinner when Jeff Petry re-signed with Montreal. When you look at the $5.5M entry price for decent second pairing defenseman (i.e. Orpik, Niskanen), consider the volume of teams who need defensive help and look at the available options, I see no reason why this summer’s free agent signings will not be equally overpriced. I hold out a tiny glimmer of hope that Andrej Sekera just really liked Raleigh and the Hurricanes organization and instructs his agent to just get it done versus going for top dollar. But that is a remote hope and likely would have happened in March if it was possible.
But while the free market looks incredibly challenging for me, I think the trade market is actually the opposite this summer. I think unique player circumstances and widespread salary cap challenges open up a number of decent short-term possibilities to fill out the top 4 for 1-3 years while we wait for reinforcements to arrive from the system that Francis started stocking immediately upon taking the Canes GM job.
I have identified 12-15 possible defenseman trade options and will cover about half in this blog and the other half in a follow on that I hope to post later today.
In order by current team:
James Wisniewski-Anaheim Why is/might he be available? Anaheim gave up a pretty high end prospect to add him to solidify their blue line for the playoffs. Wisniewski proceeded to play his way into the healthy scratch category and spend most of the playoffs in the press box. If he was not one of Anaheim’s best six defenseman when it mattered most, I cannot believe they really want to allocate $5.5M salary cap toward him for two more years.
Financials: Wisniewski is under contract for two years with a cap hit of $5.5M/year but his actual salary is only $4M average ($5M then $3M). Remember that the Canes are not a cap team, but they are budget constrained. So this theme of players with big cap hits but smaller actual cost is favorable to the Canes and will be a bit of a theme as I evaluate options.
What is the upside? Wisniewski was very recently a top 4 in Columbus and a pretty decent one when you look at the advanced stats. And based on being discarded from Columbus and then failing to live up to expectations in Anaheim, he should definitely be a “buy low… candidate right now. He is a right shot with decent offensive/puck-moving skills that I think pairs well with Ron Hainsey’s skill set, and he is only 31 years old.
What is the risk? Is it possible that Columbus who would know best knows/saw something that gave them reason to get out early? And his inability to claim ice time in Anaheim for the playoffs I guess is another concern. The risk is that he is a former top 4 defenseman who is on the decline and will not return to that level.
Dennis Wideman-Calgary Why he is/might be available: First, with Calgary moving in the direction, making the playoffs and Wideman being part of it, he is not going to be a desperate salary dump like Wisniewski and others may be. But two things put his name into play. First, the Flames are good and young on defense with a core that starts with captain Mark Giordano. Second, despite making the playoffs early, you keep hearing terms like “still building…, “rebuilding…, etc. coming out of Calgary. It at least seems possible that Calgary would lean more heavily on their burgeoning young defensive group and try to use Wideman to add another forward.
Financials: Wideman has two years remaining on his contract at $5.25M cap hit (salary is actually $5.25M in first year and $6M in second year).
What is the upside? Wideman is a veteran puck-moving defenseman who has experience as a top 4. Like Wisniewski, I think his skill set and the fact that he is a right shot complements Ron Hainsey well and could be part of the path to a 2nd pairing that generates more offensively.
What is the risk? While Wideman is more of a pure 2nd pairing defenseman, not 1st pairing, and is a little bit expensive for that role, I do not see much risk with him if slotted in the 2nd pair. His contract term at two years is modest. He is not a reclamation project coming off a horrible season. He is only 32 years old. His contract is probably about $1M high for his role, so there is also a decent risk that if he does not work out, he would be hard to trade.
Alec Martinez-Los Angeles Why is he available? Los Angeles is one of the most salary cap-strapped teams in the NHL. Even if they buy out Mike Richards or somehow trade him, they still need to figure out a way to make the numbers work especially if they want to take a run at retaining Andrej Sekera and even have a chance at Justin Williams. IF Sekera stays and Voynov returns, Martinez quickly becomes a very expensive #5 defenseman (with Greene also there as a pricey #6 at $2.5M) and almost certainly available. Even if the Kings do not retain Sekera, Martinez is still a candidate for financial restructuring in LA.
Financials: He is signed for 6 years at $4M/year which I view as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, if he works out even as a #4 that is a decent price that could actually be cheap by the end of the contract with today’s escalating prices. But if he does not work out, that is a long commitment at a price that necessitates top half of the roster performance.
What is the upside? He is just entering his prime at 27, relatively experienced for his age and has some legitimate NHL experience for stints as a top 4 NHL defenseman. Playing on a Cup-winner is not a reason to add a player but is also a bonus.
What is the risk? The biggest risk is the contract length. $4M/year is an interesting middle number in that it is probably a discount if he works out in the top 4 but is way high if he does not and falls to a #5/#6 slot. It is the contract and the fact that he is not a true proven top 4 but more of a player that the Canes scouting department needs to assess for whether he is capable.
Jared Spurgeon-Minnesota Why he is/might be available? First, Spurgeon is one of a few who I included who are not certainly available but have circumstances where they could be available. Minnesota is pretty deep (and mostly young) on defense with Suter anchoring a group that also includes Brodin, Scandella and Dumba and some decent prospects in the system. If things go as planned with Dumba’s continued development, he could supplant Spurgeon in the top 4. Spurgeon’s 2015-16 salary of $2.7M is not outlandish for a #5 defenseman, but as a stats-heavy offensive defenseman, he could be tricky to get re-signed for a slot-appropriate price next summer when he is a restricted free agent. As a player who is climbing up the ladder in terms of salary (happens faster/more with stats-heavy offensive defensemen), so it is at least possible that he becomes available NOT as a dump like some of the other players mentioned but as part of a true player for player hockey trade. I view him somewhat in the same category as ____ who Canes fans are familiar with from his time in Atlanta. He is a bit undersized, leans offense but is not incapable defensively. If the defense is good enough, I think that is a good recipe for a #3/#4 in today’s NHL.
Financials: He is signed for 2015-16 at a reasonable $2.7M and becomes a restricted free agent at the end of the season. As noted above, the tricky part is always pricing on these stats-strong offensive defenseman. They can be real dangerous in arbitration when they have scoring totals that are elite but do it on the power play and from a 3rd pairing role. But the situation is mostly positive with a reasonable price this year and only restricted free agent status next summer.
What is the upside? Despite being a bit undersized, he is a young but reasonably experienced defenseman who has played in a top 4ish role. For Canes fans for years, he reminds me a bit of Tobias Enstrom who we saw regularly when he was in the Canes division. Spurgeon is another right shot whose s strength is his ability to skate, create and contribute offensively. Following summer mantra that says the NHL is rapidly trending, mostly there already, toward “skating above all else,… Spurgeon fits and also matches my recurring theme of a skating, offense-leaning right shot to pair with Hainsey.
What is the risk? The risk for Spurgeon is that he has already hit his ceiling as a pretty good offensive defenseman who is borderline top 4 but not really. At this point, he looks more like a 3rd pairing offense/power play specialist. There is value in this role but not such that you trade a ton to get it. It can also be tough to figure out financially because these players sometimes do really well in arbitration/salary negotiations because of strong scoring stats comparables despite a 3rd pairing role. In addition, the Canes hope that (at a minimum) this is exactly the role that Ryan Murphy will grow into from within the organization. So shorter version is that there is risk that he is not truly a top 4 at least on a good team.
Alexei Emelin-Montreal Why is/might be he available? Montreal is currently five deep in terms of veteran, fully priced defenseman with Subban, Petry, Markov, Emelin and Gilbert. They also have Nathan Beaulieu who seems to be on track to develop into a top 4 and other prospects in the pipeline. It seems likely that either Gilbert of Emelin would be shopped or at least fairly easy to win with a reasonable trade offer.
Financials: Emelin is signed for three years at $4.1M/year which is a very reasonable price for a top 4 defenseman in today’s market.
What is the upside? Emelin is in his prime at 29 years old, has played in a top 4 role and is priced at the low end of fair for a #3/#4 defenseman. As a left shot, stay home type, could he play a little bit above his natural slot, find chemistry with Faulk and bring an added dose of physical play to the top pairing? It seems at least possible.
What is the risk? He probably is not a true top pairing defenseman. That is maybe okay for his price in general, but my concern from a Canes standpoint is that I am not sure he is a great fit for a 2nd pairing that includes Ron Hainsey. Neither bring much in terms of generating offense and rushing the puck up the ice, so that pairing starts to look a bit like a higher-end version of Hainsey/Bellemore from 2014-15 which was pretty solid in its own end but unable to help the offense. I guess it is possible that Hainsey plays up with Faulk and Emelin becomes the defensive anchor for a second pair. Could Liles move up and be the puck-moving part of that 2nd pair? Hainsey/Faulk and Liles/Emelin seems like a stretch for a top 4 but it would be budget friendly with only one addition for a pretty modest salary.
Tom Gilbert-Montreal Why is he available? See Emelin above.
Financials: Gilbert is signed for one year at $2.8M which puts him in the bargain category with Yandle and Bieksa.
What is the upside? He meets my (redundant) “skating above all… else mantra. He is also another who is a right shot offense-leaning 2nd pair type that I think complements Ron Hainsey by adding more offense to the second pairing which I think is key to improving 5v5 scoring. I think is more of a #4 or maybe even #4/#5 but his price is right for that, and he is a veteran who has spent some time in a top 4 role.
What is the risk? Financially, there is very little with only one year at a modest price. I guess the biggest risk is that he just really is not a true top 4 and just adds another #5ish defenseman who is not enough to provide the boost needed especially if you consider him as a replacement to everything that Sekera brought.
Andy Greene-New Jersey Why is/might he be available? I am not sure he is. He is probably the best defenseman on a New Jersey team that is not real deep at the position. So if the Devils are building to try to win in 2015-16, I doubt he could be pried loose. But IF the team goes into rebuilding mode which seems possible, then he could be a valuable asset to add futures and could become available.
Financials: Greene is signed for 5 years at $5M which in today’s market for defensemen is discounted slightly if you consider capable of being a #2 next to Faulk and really not too far off if you consider him to be more of a 2nd pairing defenseman.
What is the upside? As a mobile left shot defenseman, could he play in a #2 role next to Faulk? I am not sure he is a pure first pairing guy, but if Faulk continues his development and they find chemistry, I do not think the possibility is outlandish. And if this does work, the $5M price suddenly becomes reasonable at least for the first few years.
What is the risk? $5M/year is about fully priced for a player like Greene. The bigger risk is also that 5 years is a risky term for a 32-year-old.
Sorry for the real long read, but I wanted to put forward a few of the "why" thoughts instead of just chucking names.
Hope is to post the second set later today.
What say you Canes fans? Do you agree that the options to add defense might be more plentiful and even less expensive via trade? Who do you like out of this group?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt
Go Canes!