For those who have not seen it yet or have not been following along, the Kickstarter that I am running in June to launch Canes and Coffee is chugging forward, but we still need help to make this happen.
I hope to post a FAQ on Kickstarter itself tonight to answer some questions I have received. Also, I will start using Facebook to post small, regular updates for now, so please check in and/or like Canes and Coffee there if interested.
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Draft week and some real Canes news is now less than 2 weeks away!
The short summary of where I stand on the Canes and the #5 pick on Friday is as follows:
1) I cannot remember ever being so wishy washy on whom I want with the team's first pick. I have always tended to meander around the draft options leading up to late June as I read more and more assessments of the options, but usually about this time I firmly settle on a choice. I would not be surprised if I change again before the draft.
2) I said in April that I would be extremely surprised to see the Canes trade out of the #5 pick for a roster player or a bigger collection of lower picks and futures. There is going to be a TON of speculation and rumors this week about teams talking to the Canes about the #5 pick. The idea of paying something in futures to make Semin’s contract movable to cut cost is possible (i.e. the Toronto rumors), but I still will be shocked to see Francis trade out of the #5 pick. The only exception would be a small trade down to #6-8 IF (and only if) the Canes staff ranking have someone rated higher than the option left at #5. I think that is possible this year with the quality of players theoretically sitting at #6-9.
3) At a basic level, I am of the "best available player" mindset regardless of position or skill set. I also get real negative when scouts start hedging too much with "at leasts" (i.e. he will at least be a decent 3rd-liner. Picking #5 in a deep draft, the Canes need to shoot for the stars (literally) and draft with the goal of adding a player who will be one of the best 2-3 players on the team in 3-4 years.
4) I am fine with taking whoever is left at #5, as I think all are good options. But in order, right now I lean Hanifin, Marner and then Strome. It comes down to a theme you will hear from me the rest of the summer. I think that right now skating ability is the thing above everything else in the NHL. The fact that the NHL is getting bigger (just like athletes in pretty much every sport) these days is a distraction and masks a more significant trend which is toward players that can skate and play the game at pace. You need watch only one game of the Cup finals next to a run of the mill regular season game between two non-playoff teams to seet it clearly. The NHL has pretty much eliminated the old school 4th-line enforcers. Big, physical 3rd pairing defenders are also very much on the way out. Good teams have room for one at most for a shot-blocking, clear-the-front-of-the-net penalty killer. So following what I think is the biggest trend for success in the NHL these days, I love the idea of getting a big, young defenseman with offensive ability, an all-around game and who is labeled as a tremendous skater. That is Hanifin.
Quickly working through the players, who might be available at #5, here are some other quick thoughts:
--Mitch Marner. I mostly could care less about his size. He will soon be about 5-11 180 which works just fine for players with a ton of skill, skating ability and (importantly) a willingness to go to the net. For me, concussion risk is more a function of style of play and ability to see the ice. There have been some players plenty big enough (Pronger is the biggest example) whose careers have ended with a concussion problems and many small players who have played years without issues.
This might sound strange, but of Hanifin, Strome and Marner, I actually think Marner is the least risky. I think he is just too incredibly skilled not to at least become a decent NHL scorer and 2nd-line forward.
--Noah Hanifin. Again, the skating ability is what entices me. I just think that it is the most important thing in the NHL right now. If Hanifin is as advertised in terms of ability, skating and character, he seems like a can’t miss top 4 defenseman. His ceiling is higher but even that is probably equal in value to anything that a forward can provide.
--Dylan Strome. I rate him as most risky. I just cannot get past the fact that he was actually a #2 center on his team playing with a player who attracted the vast majority of opposing coaches’ and players’ attention. Yes. I realize that he played well when McDavid was out with injury, and I do think that boosts his value. But I continue to think that there is at least some risk that he benefitted from playing many more minutes against the 2nd best set of players on the other team. Very few of those players will ever make the NHL. But if he is the one who is left, I happily take him. In terms of filling needs sooner rather than later, he might actually be the best fit for the Canes. He would come into camp and could immediately compete for the 2nd line center slot especially with Rask sitting there to take more or less of those minutes and some tough matchups while he grows into it.
I have parts of four blogs written and will probably add 1-2 more heading into the draft weekend. In addition to revisiting my preference for #5 when we get closer, I will post a couple blogs on identifying Canes needs for this summer and detail some of the options to fill these needs via trade before free agency opens up in July.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!