I get the Coyotes strategy, I really do.
Last year, only a 5-0 record against the Oilers kept them out of last place, there was all the uncertainty regarding Glendale and as such they are probably resigned to losing money this year, but more comfortable with it because they know they'll be moving soon into a much better situation.
So, faced with a last place roster, and now having no need for the usual 'compete at all costs' strategy to attract a few more fans, the Coyotes were in a unique position: they were free to bottom out. Add in the enticing local kid Austen Matthews, who may be available to the league's worst team this year,and a need to spend just to make the cap-floor, and the Coyotes seemingly have a perfect storm for tanking:
They have no financial intensive not to, they are already bad, they have a kid they want probably as bad as any team's ever wanted a specific player, and by signing every low quality free agent available last summer they can now plausibly deny any tanking accusations. And to top it off, they have the Rangers first round pick, and then (if all goes well) the 1st and 31st picks in the draft to add to an already incredible prospect base.
So, while I understand this strategy, I don't think it's a very good one.
Here's why:
1. The team the Coyotes are icing is only some depth at the centre-ice position and blueline away from being an excellent team.
With Domi, Duclair, Boedker and Reider manning the wings, and OEL, Stone and Murphy on the back-end, the Coyotes have no reason to be a bad team. The speed they have makes every team back off and screws up their defensive positioning.
You've seen it all year if you've been watching the Coyotes at all, but last night was the perfect example. The Ducks are a superior team than the Coyotes but the speed the Coyotes can throw at them levels the playing field considerably.
A couple more centres, a third line, another high-end dman and the Coyotes are a competitive team. I think it's unfair to Domi, Ducliar and Ekman-Larsson to completely waste this year.
2. It's probably Shane Doan's last year, so send him out with style by icing a competitive team.
3. You don't have to sacrifice the future to have a good team now. The NHL isn't as cut and dry when it comes to rebuilding as people seem to think. You can't just collect 20 rookies and hold them all in the AHL until they're magically amazing. At some point, some prospect capital has to be converted into NHL talent.
4 The Odds of a team getting another player as talented as Oliver Ekman-Larsson to play along side him are astronomical. Strome and Domi are nice pieces, but at their absolute best, I think OEL is still the team's franchise player.
Therefore, wasting his peak is reprehensible. Look at what he does on a bad team and tell me how good he'd be on a team that is competitive.
5With the Coyotes cap situation they are in prime position to sell cap space to improve their team because 50% of the NHL would have problems adding players right now. Add in their prospect capital and I think they'd be in a prime position to get favorable trade results.
6 The Coyotes, if they finish last, only have a 20% chance of getting Matthews. Even if they do get him, there is at least an even chance that local-kid-as-savior-of-perennially-struggling-team will be an unhealthy situation that goes sideways quickly.
The Coyotes will have two first-round picks no matter where they finish, so there is no reason to reach for the local kid. It's a nice story, but it's not worth it given the risks vs rewards.
Watching them play last night, with the talent they have, all I could think is that its a shame they're throwing out such bad centres with the lineup they could have.
I mean, Boedker is playing like we've been waiting for him to forever. Domi is the most exciting rookie, who isn't currently injured, in the NHL. And they give them Dustin frigging Jeffery?
Boedker is playing for a contract, for his career and you give him Dustin Jeffrey? Who, by the way, posted a sub-enforcer Corsi For of 32% last night. You don't spend 7 years developing a player only to make him play for a contract with Dustin Jeffrey as his centre. It's as bad as playing OEL for 35 minutes in a meaningless game. (A game that doesn't have to be meaningless if you trade for a centre.).
And guess what else? Without boat-anchor Nick Grossmann, Connor Murphy was 56.5% last night, playing mostly with Elliott who was coming off an injury and was a little rusty.
If the Coyotes could exchange the Dahlbeck/Michalek pairing for something good and add a centre to this lineup, they could have the kind of year that fans of the team deserve, that the players on the team deserve.
But, most of all, the reason you add to this team (and I don't mean that they should go extreme and sell off the whole future) is because it will make Domi and Duclair and Boedker and Murphy and OEL all that much better going forward. You can't teach experience, and even one playoff race that ends in 9th is probably something each and every rebuilt team must go through.
Might as well make that this year.
I mean, when I see OEL and Stone just dominate Perry and Getzlaf whenever they're on the ice, I see no reason why this team shouldn't make a go at the weak Pacific Division.
Thanks for reading.
All stats waronice.com