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On the heels of their five-game second-round series victory over the New York Islanders, the Tampa Bay Lightning have once again been left to play the waiting game in regards to their next opponent.
The Eastern Conference Final will play on with the Lightning squared off against either the Pittsburgh Penguins or Presidents’ Trophy winning Washington Capitals, as we all obviously know, but the question remains, who should Ben Bishop and the Bolts want to play in round three?
Well, if the season series against both is any indication, the Lightning would probably prefer the Pens, right? After all, the Lightning swept the season series with Pittsburgh in the regular season, and outscored them 15-to-9 over the course of those three contests. Meanwhile, the Capitals took all three head-to-heads with the Lightning this year, and surrendered just six goals over that stretch.
But if you’ve watched these two teams (Pittsburgh and Washington) separately and then together, I think you’d be crazy to sit there and say that you’re still welcoming a third-round date with the Penguins with open arms. Pittsburgh, who rolled into the postseason with wins in 14 of their final 16 games, has found a four-line balance that’s really made it difficult for teams to contain their full arsenal of weapons up front (Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and of course, Evgeni Malkin).
Meanwhile, the Capitals have struggled to find goals from their big guns, namely Evgeny Kuznetsov (one goal, one assist in 11 postseason games), while Justin Williams, brought in for his absurd playoff expertise, has been held to just two goals on 27 shots this postseason.
So much of what the Capitals can and have done this spring has come down to the play of TJ Oshie and Ovechkin, and if they’re quiet, the whole team appears to be quiet.
That favors any team that matches up against the Capitals right now, and that includes Tampa Bay.
Or, in other words, it’s easier to stop one line than it is four lines.
Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman swallowed John Tavares up whole in the second round, and I think he could do that to a Pittsburgh talent in the third round, but I’m not sure if he can do it for three of them, especially if they’re all on separate lines. There’s just too many minutes in a game.
The great equalizer is in the crease, though, and the Bolts know that.
For all the praise that’s been thrown Bishop’s way this spring (and deservedly so), there’s been one goaltender that’s been better than him, and that’s Washington’s Braden Holtby. Bishop’s .938 save percentage is amazing, but Holtby’s .947 is better. You love Bishop’s 1.89 goals against average, of course, but Washington feels the same way about Holtby’s 1.53 goals against average. Holtby was stellar against the Bolts this season, too, with two wins and a .927 save percentage. Those figures are in line with his career numbers, too, as No. 70 has won seven of 12 career head-to-heads.
But Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray isn’t far behind Bishop. In fact, his save percentage is just .001% behind Bishop’s for second in the league, and his goals against average is just .07 off. It’s experience that Murray lacks, especially in head-to-head play with T.B., but if there’s one thing he’s shown thus far, it’s that that won’t matter in the least if and when that time for a third-round showdown comes his way.
Fortunately for the anxious, Tampa Bay may know their opponent by the end of the night.
Ty Anderson has been covering the National Hockey League for HockeyBuzz.com since 2010, has been a member of the Pro Hockey Writers Association's Boston Chapter since 2013, and can be contacted on Twitter, or emailed at Ty.AndersonHB[at]gmail.com.