After missing the playoffs for the fifth time in six years it's safe to say there will be changes in Calgary.
Replacing Bob Hartley as head coach is not expected to be among them, according to Eric Francis of the Calgary Sun.
It’s a pretty safe bet Bob Hartley is coming back as the Flames coach.That’s certainly his assumption, in the absence of official word from GM Brad Treliving,
It’s also a fairly solid bet he’ll do so without the cushion of a contract extension.
While it seemed like a safe bet Hartley would coach the Flames next season I don't necessarily agree with the decision for a few reasons:
1) The Flames have qualified for the playoffs once in four years with Hartley in charge. They have never had a Stanley Cup caliber roster but those results aren't exactly good given more than half the league makes the playoffs. They're especially discouraging when you factor in the year the Flames qualified (2014-15) they did so by riding unsustainable percentages as much as anything else.
2) Through an analytical lens the Flames have not fared well under Hartley. In fact, their numbers have been sub par in every major statistic at 5 v 5 since Hartley took over.
To be fair the Flames aren't exactly the Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings or Anaheim Ducks but it's remarkable that the Flames have yet to be average in any of the major categories over such a long period.
This year was the Flames' best of the bunch under Hartley and the numbers were still underwhelming given the likes of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mikael Backlund, Sam Bennett, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton were taking regular shifts on a nightly basis.
That leads me to believe the negative results have been due to systems, and what the coaching staff has instructed the players to do, more so than a lack of quality players.
3) Hartley has shown a tendency to overplay heart and soul-type players such as Lance Bouma and Deryk Engelland while players such as Josh Jooris, Paul Byron and Dougie Hamilton, for example, have taken a back seat at times despite producing better results.
Every coach has a couple guys they cling to because they're good in the room, appear to be giving 110% at all times and so forth but Hartley has taken it to the extreme at times.
Conclusion
Every coach has his faults and this past season was probably a write off regardless of who was behind the bench because the goaltending was so dreadful. In saying that I don't think Hartley is someone who can take the Flames to promise land and I think they'd be better served parting ways and looking for someone who can.
That will surely happen a year from now if the Flames don't get much better results in 2016-17.
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