Barkov Deal a Hint for Scheifele?
Before we dive into the opportunity to use this event, that of the Barkov extension, as a measuring stick for Mark Scheifele’s next deal, we cannot let the opportunity pass to point another thing about about Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.
Here is another team, and another GM, stepping up early to extend and sign their player. Chevy has done it before with Enstrom and Stuart but why again must fans wonder and wait while other teams make decisive moves with their assets? Why must Chevy now sit and see that a market value has been made that he has to react to for his future deals?
Returning to Barkov it’s a heck of a deal for both sides averaging 5.9 million for 6 years although the salary breaks down by year as follows: 4.5, 5.25, 6.25, 6.9, 4.75, 7.75 expiring in 2021.
Barkov is 2 years younger than Mark Scheifele but they both entered the league as full time players at the same time, the 2013-14 season. Here’s how they compare:
Barkov 163 GP 36 goals 54 assists 90 pts and .552 pts/game
Scheifele 193 GP 41 goals 66 assists 107 pts and .554 pts/game
However let’s look at their beginning to current stage of their career as they each finish off the final year of their entry level deals. As always thanks to Mimico Hero for the great graphics and data.
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Barkov is the better player and is so at an early age and stage compared to Scheifele and is rounding into an elite two-way centre at the NHL level. Scheifele is projecting to be a true number one centre as well but does he have the same level of two-way play as Barkov?
Probably not and that may never come, at least to the level Barkov is already displaying but Scheifele is a goal scorer and goals mean $$$ in GM and agent’s eyes.
That being said did any Jet fan think Scheifele could be looking at north of 5 million on his next contract? Just to give you perspective, Bryan Little makes 4.7 million per year. Here is how he and Barkov compared for last year.
2015 Barkov vs Little
The point that has to be noticed here is that Florida and GM Dale Tallon are projecting out on what Barkov will be and the salary structure suggests that in the first year of what would be his UFA year Barkov will be worth around 7.75 million. Are the Jets prepared to take that risk, one that may have burned them with Evander Kane on Scheifele or will they look to do a bridge deal?
The danger with the bridge deal is well documented with PK Subban but is Scheifele such a unique talent that he could raise his game to that level so as to dramatically affect his value? It could happen.
The bigger point here is projections and what the Jets believe Scheifele will be producing in 5-6 years and what that production will be worth to them. Most fans would say it’s not worth an AAV of 5.9 million but now that Barkov’s deal is there Scheifele’s agent should be referencing that every time he talks to Chevy.
That’s the problem with waiting, and even though the two players are not the same they are comparable, is that you have to react to what the market does. GMs want to set the market with players instead of trying to tell them why they are not worth the market price. Scheifele is not worth 5.9 million yet, but if Chevy keeps waiting he might not be worth much less once it’s time to put pen to paper and sign the deal.
Now imagine what happens if Ekblad signs before Trouba? That's still a bit of a stretch but as