Since rhyming off 9 wins in 10 games from November 29th to December 20th the Sharks have gone 10-11-4 to plummet themselves out of a playoff position.
During the first 34 games of the season San Jose had a score-adjusted fenwick of 51.8, good enough for 12th overall in the NHL. Over the current 25 game span in which they are 10-11-4 the Sharks have a score-adjusted fenwick of 48.8, good enough for 22nd in the league over that timeframe.
There’s a direct correlation between possession and winning – even if you don’t want to believe it. The Sharks have not been a good possession team since just before the holiday break in December and it’s been a contributing factor for their decline in the standings.
In games 45-54 there was a huge spike in SAF. The result? San Jose went 5-3-2 in those ten games. Outside of those five games their record is 5-8-2 since December 22nd.
In G45-G49 the Sharks shooting percentage was a whopping 9.5% - which masked awful goaltending to give them a winning record. The sh% was able to combat the opposing force of the goaltending to avoid ruining a good stretch of possession.
The Sharks have shot 7.5% at 5v5 this season. That’s a total that isn’t going to bail out poor goaltending. Combining poor possession play with atrocious goaltending is a world class recipe right from the Edmonton Oilers cookbook.
We can’t blame the injury to Vlasic either because he was only out for five of those games. There are no excuses. What we’ve watched for the last 25 games is a team that doesn’t belong in the playoffs – and are deserving of their place in the standings as of this morning.
The Tyler Kennedy Effect
If you didn’t already know, I’m a huge fan of Tyler Kennedy in the bottom six for San Jose.
Kennedy made an appearance against Nashville and didn’t disappoint. He finished with a 60% CF%. He made his linemates look serviceable. This is what Tyler Kennedy brings to the bottom six – a positive shot attempt differential. That’s an important thing for the depth group to have and it shouldn’t be overlooked because the coach doesn’t like the cut of his jib.
Whatever negative emotions toward Tyler Kennedy that McLellan is working through he has to figure out how to suppress them for the three hours the Sharks are on the ice for a game.
Here’s Kennedy’s WOWY with all Sharks defenders + Sheppard/Desjardins – since those are his centers most of the time.
Not bad, he only makes every single person better. Now, the sample size is what it is – small – but that’s not Kennedy’s fault.
However small or large the sample, Kennedy doesn’t deserve to be sitting as a healthy scratch for San Jose – ever. The team just isn’t good enough to let his possession play sit stagnant in the press box.
Where They Stand Update:
With last night’s games going the worst possible way, the Sharks are on the outside looking in.
A loss to Dallas tonight would pull the Stars within two points of San Jose. Vancouver is in New York tonight to play the Rangers as the only other game that matters to San Jose.
With the games in hand teams still hold over San Jose a win against Dallas is a must. They have no Tyler Seguin for crying out loud, Kulikov’s filthy mafia-style knee-clubbing made sure of that.
The Sharks have to dig deep and decide whether or not they want to be a playoff team or not. If they roll over and die on the ice against the Dallas Stars the decision will be painfully apparent.
Thanks for reading. #FreeMirco
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