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The path that Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas will take to address one of his club’s greatest shortcomings is the biggest unknown of the off-season.
By the objective analysis of most, the Leafs defensive corps has one legitimate top-pairing blueliner in Morgan Rielly. While the summer speculation will focus on a big-time free agent (John Carlson) or potential trades (Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Justin Faulk and Erik Karlsson), another part of the equation could be the exodus of existing members of the club’s defensive corps.
Ron Hainsey proved to be an effective stopgap as Rielly’s partner last season, but at 37 and entering the final year of a two-year contract, the veteran would be a much better fit on a second or third pairing.
21-year-old Travis Dermott showed signs of being able to handle more than bottom pairing duty during his half season with the Leafs and the club has an ample supply of depth defensive candidates in Roman Polak (if re-signed), Calle Rosen, Andreas Borgman, Connor Carrick, Igor Ozhiganov and Justin Holl.
The biggest question marks are Nikita Zaitsev and Jake Gardiner, whose names have been mentioned in summer trade speculation, but that might be more a product of wishful thinking than legitimate trade chatter.
Zaitsev encountered injuries and illness in his sophomore year and his point production declined from his rookie total of 36 points to 13 points, but the 26-year-old is a right-handed shot and enjoys the confidence of head coach Mike Babcock.
Gardiner tied Rielly for the club lead in defensive scoring with 52 points, but the 27-year-old’s propensity for defensive misjudgment once again popped up at the worst possible time in Game 7 vs. Boston.
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Zaitsev will be entering year two of a seven-year, $31.5 Million contract and is coming off a underwhelming year, which means his value throughout the league might be low and necessitate the Leafs taking a contract back or retaining salary on the remaining six years of the deal, but the expectation of a bounce back year could prevent Toronto from jumping the gun.
Gardiner is one year away from unrestricted free agency and is coming off career-best offensive numbers. If the Leafs are not interested in extending him, the Minnesota native’s value is at his highest and teams are looking for defensemen like him who can run a power play and skate with the puck.
If Toronto wants to sign Gardiner, it will likely cost in the neighborhood of $6 Million AAV on a multi-year contract and that salary is problematic for a blueliner who can be a liability in his own zone at times playing top-four minutes.
Based on his performance in the regular season and playoffs, it is not unreasonable for the Leafs to have confidence that Dermott can move up in the top four. At an entry-level salary of $863,333 for the next two seasons, trading Gardiner would safe the Leafs over $3 Million on the cap and give them assets that they did not get last season by failing to deal pending UFA’s James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak.
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Toronto will be losing two prospects if they are not signed to an entry-level deal by the Friday deadline. Prospects Keaton Middleton (4th-101st overall) and Nicolas Mattinen (6th – 179th overall) were both selected in the 2016 NHL Draft in Buffalo.
Middleton had 24 points (4 goals, 20 assists) for the Saginaw Spirit in his fourth OHL season, but the 6’5…, 235 lb. blueliner was not been offered an ELC.
Mattinen was traded from Flint to Hamilton in the OHL this season and played for the Bulldogs in the Memorial Cup, but his told reporter Dhiren Mahiban that will not sign with Toronto. Both players will re-enter the Draft next month in Dallas.
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