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The Toronto Maple Leafs have addressed most of their roster needs with more than a month left before the start of training camp, leaving Leafs GM Kyle Dubas the opportunity to turn his attention towards the unfinished business of discussing a contract extension with defenseman Morgan Rielly.
The 27-year-old had a bounce back campaign after an injury-plagued 2020 season, with 35 points (5 goals, 30 assists) in 55 games (which projects to 52 points in a full 82-game schedule) and played well with top pairing partner TJ Brodie, but his lack of a big shot on the power play contributed to the Leafs second half special teams struggles.
Rielly’s 20-goal season three years ago appears to be an outlier, but his skating, puck carrying and ability to play big minutes would sorely be missed if he leaves Toronto via unrestricted free agency next summer, as Zach Hyman and Frederik Andersen did last month.
Dubas indicated that negotiations with Rielly would be on the back burner until after the NHL Draft and free agent frenzy, and that once the club saw what the defensive market was like, they would have a better idea of what the cost would be to extend him.
The defensive costs this summer have exploded in spite of the flat salary cap, with blueliners approaching free agency and RFA/UFA’s Darnell Nurse, Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, Cale Makar and Dougie Hamilton getting $9 million or more on new deals. While Rielly is a tier below them, Hamilton’s $9 million AAV is a warning sign of how players getting to the open market can escalate prices.
Based on the comparables, the Leafs may have to offer as much as $8 million per season or lower the AAV by offering an 8-year max deal or risk losing Rielly to another club. If the intention is to get an extension done, Dubas should get his work done prior to the start of the season.
Rielly will likely be a selection for Team Canada for the upcoming Beijing Olympics (if the NHL chooses to go) and an impressive showing on the international stage could only increase the cost of re-signing him.
Short of youngster Rasmus Sandin taking a giant step forward and becoming a top four defenseman in his third pro season, the potential loss of Rielly would leave a gaping hole in the Leafs blueline that might be impossible to fill.
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— Norman James (@IamNormanJames) April 26, 2021
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