It is getting harder and harder to not be completely fired up about the coming playoffs. So much has been said about the matchups and how good this team is versus that team....and when predicting these series we have all fallen back on the same familiar grounds...judging what will happen in the next three months on what happened in the regular season....
The problem is that even though we are acting like we can unpause what we paused in March and everyone will just continue on the exact same trajectory, the fact is they won't. Too much time has passed and we need to realize this more when we look at these games. These teams may be technically continuing the 2019-2020 season, but the reality is the playoffs are happening at the beginning of the NEXT NHL Season.
5 months off is not a pause. It is an off-season. These teams are all one year older and one year wiser than they were last time we saw them. We need to look at this like we look at the teams when a new season begins. And as we know the beginning of every NHL season brings with it some strong surprises, with many teams coming out colder or hotter than anyone thought they might.
Young players ARE in fact a year older and more experienced. Old players are a year older. And that whole thing may in fact be amplified even more by the fact that they have all been quarantined for all these months. We need to look deeper to the teams who were looking really good at the end of last season to get clues as to how they will come out in this new season.
All this is amplified even more by the fact that we have never seen a new season without massive changes in personnel before. Generally, a team can end a season strongly, but then they will be forced to add or subtract due to expiring contracts. Not this new season. I feel this consistency in rosters may actually make the teams who were starting to click even better and the teams who were complacent could find they are resting on far too many laurels.
If you aren't moving forward you are standing still.
How do we find the potential surprises?
Who was looking good down the stretch? And who maybe wasn't...
What have you done for me lately?
When I try to predict a new season I tend to look at what the teams did in the current calendar year.. In other words, games that happened in 2019 may not show as much towards where a team is heading as games in 2020.
When you look at the records of NHL teams since January 1, 2020 the league looks a whole lot different...
The NHL 2020 Standings.. Based on Points Per Game Since January 1, 2020 Surprising teams bolded. (good or bad)
Western Conference.
1. Colorado 1.4 2. Vegas 1.29 3. Edmonton 1.28 4. Minnesota 1.21 5. Calgary 1.21 6. St Louis 1.2 7. Dallas 1.17 8. Nashville 1.16 9. Vancouver 1.10 10. Winnipeg 1.06 11 Chicago 1.03 12. Anaheim .97 13. Arizona .93 14. LA Kings .93 15. San Jose .90
Eastern Conference 1. Boston 1.45 2. Tampa 1.44 3. Philly 1.38 4. Columbus 1.23 5. NY Rangers 1.19 6. NJ Devils 1.13 7. Pittsburgh 1.13 8. Washington 1.11 9. Carolina 1.11 10. Toronto 1.10 11. Florida 1.10 12. Buffalo .96 13. Montreal .94 14. NY Islanders .90 15. Ottawa .81 16. Detroit .53 (epic bad)
After ranking them based on Points per Game I am reminded how much I hate the "Point for an overtime loss concept. Twenty Two of the 31 teams are over 1 point per game and ONLY Detroit is below .80?!?!
So maybe points per game is NOT a true tell on how good a team really is...This is a sport. Sports are about winning. In the NHL you can also get wins playing 3 v 3 or in a shootout...so let's look at 60 minutes. How many times your team outscored the other team in 60 minutes of ACTUAL 5 v5 Hockey.
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REAL WINS IN 2020. Percentage of Games Won in 60 minutes Since January 1, 2020
Eastern Conference. 1. Boston 69% 2. Tampa 65.6% 3. Philly 62.1% 4. NY Rangers 54.8% 5. Columbus 50% 5. Pittsburgh 50% 5. Florida 50% 8. Toronto 48.3% 9. Washington 46.4% 10. Buffalo 42.8% 11. NJ 40% 12. Carolina 39.2% 13. Montreal 35.4% 14. NY Islanders 33.3% 15. Ottawa 25.8% 16. Detroit 13.3%
Western Conference 1. Vegas 60.7% 2. Colorado 60% 3. Edmonton 55.1% 4. Minnesota 53.5% 5. Dallas 51.7% 6. Nashville 48.3% 7. Vancouver 48.2% 8. St Louis 46.6% 9. Calgary 46.4% 10. Winnipeg 45.1% 11. Chicago 41.3% 12. San Jose 41.3% 13. Anaheim 35.4% 14. LA Kings 39.2% 15. Arizona 39.2%
Another way to see who is playing well lately...how about Goal Differential?
NHL Goal Differential Since January 1, 2020
Eastern Conference 1. Tampa +33 2. Philly +27 3. Boston +20 4. NY Rangers +15 5. Carolina +5 6. Washington +1 7. Columbus (even) 8. Florida -2 9. Toronto -3 10. Pitt -4 11. NJ -5 12 Montreal -9 13. Buffalo -12 14. NY Islanders -15 15. Ottawa -31 16. Detroit -54
Western Conference 1. Colorado +21 2. Edmonton +17 3. St Louis +11 4. Minnesota +11 5. Calgary +8 5. Winnipeg +8 5. Chicago +8 8. Vegas +7 9. Vancouver -2 10. Arizona -2 11. Dallas -3 12. Nashville -7 13. LA Kings -11 14. San Jose -14 15. Anaheim -18
So what does this all tell us about the teams? Teams That Should Be Playoff Forces.
Tampa and Boston Every bit a force. Tampa is back to 2018-19 Regular season form.
Philly They were the most improved team in the East and were getting better as it went.. NY Rangers Barely made the playoffs (and wouldn't have if done by the normal criteria) but they are every bit good enough to be there because since January they have been the 4th or 5th best team in the East.
Columbus They weren't healthy AT ALL, but were also 4th or 5th the Conference since 2020.
Colorado People were saying they would be this good and they ended even better than they started. If a new season was starting they would be Cup Favorites.
Edmonton They are for real and they can play defense.
Vegas The Knights just keep on keeping on. Despite having injuries and no Fleury they actually had the top ROW per Game in the West since 2020. Lehner only makes them more deadly.
Minnesota If any team is an interesting dark horse it may be the Wild. They were in a playoff battle for their lives, but it wasn't due to the way they played since January. They had a rough start, but since January were one of the top 4 teams in the West. And they were battling injuries.
Calgary They played very close to as well as St Louis since January. That is surprising.
Teams That Could Be In Trouble.
Washington The Caps might be showing signs of aging and they have gotten inconsistent goaltending...Since January they have only won 46% of their games in Regulation and were only a +1 in goal differential.
NY Islanders The Islanders backed into these playoffs in every way imaginable. They were near the bottom of all three standings above since January 1, and were even worse since March 1.
Arizona Very much like the Islanders. They need goaltending. They weren't good at all in 2020
Nashville Also inconsistent...But one of Nashville or Arizona will move on.
What say you?
More to come...rumor chart next.