In writing up the Post Battle from the Islanders game I made a point about how well the Blue Jackets have played in the third period this season. I mentioned how they make great in-game adjustments and are able to take over games in the third.
I wanted to take a look at the numbers and see if they have actually been playing well as the game goes on or if my mind is being clouded by a couple big comebacks. This is an important distinction to make because as we saw a couple years ago Calgary rode third period comebacks (among other things) into a playoff berth and a second round appearance. They however were not as good of a team as they appeared, their third period luck ran out and they haven’t been close to the playoffs since.
Let’s dive in and see how the Blue Jackets have fared. The following chart shows the teams Corsi For, scoring chances for, shots for, high danger scoring chances for and goals for at 5 on 5, broken down by period.
All data from Natural Stat Trick.
The Jackets have been a very strong third period team, so their third period success is based off of more than just luck. They are well over 50% in every category in the final frame. They have done a great job at creating opportunities and out chancing their opponents. This has really helped them hold leads when they have them and helped them comeback in games where they are down. The Jackets have been much better in years past at keeping the pace in the last 20. They have not gone into that defensive shell, which was far too common of an occurrence in previous seasons. Their goals for percentage is very high and that should come down as the season goes along. They are eventually going to have a late game comeback fall short.
They have also played very well in the first period. The Jackets have scored the first goal in 18 of their 26 games this season and it’s easy to see why. They come out fast and pepper the opposition with shots. They have out chanced the opposition 214-178 in the period and have an 81-64 edge in high danger chances. They have done a tremendous job this season at playing their way and forcing the other team to play catch-up.
It’s interesting that the first period and third period look almost identical. The Jackets have been finishing games the way they start. The issue however rises when looking at the second period. It’s hard to say what’s going on here. It could be the opposing coach adjusting, or a by-product of the long change. The good news though is that this has been getting better as the season has gone along. The following graph is the Jackets rolling five game Corsi For percentage, broken down again by period.
The Jackets Corsi has been trending up all season and a big reason for that has been their play in the middle frame. They started off below 40% but have been steadily climbing as the season has progressed. The first and third periods have been a little bumpier but the overall upward trend is still there.
There are definitely some scheduling effects going on here. The Jackets played some very strong teams early in the season attributing to the poor results. They have played a stretch of weaker teams recently and as expected the results have been better. Nothing is definitive yet, but it’s encouraging that the Jackets have beaten up on the teams they should be beating. The big test will be the four game stretch later this month, when they play L.A., Pittsburgh, Montreal and Boston. If they can continue this run of dominance against good teams that it will further the idea that #TheBlueJacketsAreActuallyGood and continue to establish the Jackets as one of the best teams in the NHL.
The Jackets have been playing well this season. Looking at their performance by period, they come out strong in the first period and force the other team to play from behind. The second period has caused some problems, but it’s been better of late. They have been successful in the third period, by keeping the offense rolling and not letting the opposing team have the puck. If they can keep this level of play up over the rest of the season they will make a lot of noise in the Eastern Conference.
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