Anthony Duclair is just 24 years old, and yet the Ottawa Senators became his fifth team in five seasons after he was acquired in the Ryan Dzingel deal last season. The New York Rangers, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Columbus Blue Jackets all said ‘pass’ at one point or another, for one reason or another. The question becomes: What should the Senators expect from Duclair in 2019-20? Should they expect the guy who, in the words of John Tortorella, doesn’t know how to play, or should they expect the player that put up 14 points in 21 games after being acquired? Perhaps success can be defined as being somewhere in the middle.
While it can often be difficult to read much into small sample sizes, I think it’s important to look at Duclair’s 21 games with the Senators last season to determine whether the perceived success can lead to sustainable success this season. See below for a summary of Duclair’s relative numbers in Ottawa when compared to other Senators who suited up last year:
Working on a blog about Anthony Duclair and what's reasonable to expect from him in 2019-20. Here are some relative numbers from his 21 games in Ottawa last season, from @NatStatTrick. pic.twitter.com/QsxCkugaVQ
— Michael Stuart (@hockeybuzzstu) September 24, 2019
Secondly, Duclair wasn’t a drag on his teammates after being acquired, which proves Tortorella's thesis wrong. While the raw data doesn’t look all that pretty, Duclair’s relative numbers in Ottawa suggest that he can play hockey and contribute to this team at this moment as it undergoes a rebuild. To that end, Corsica lists him as a slightly positive WAR player last year, including his iffy pre-Ottawa days in Columbus.
Duclair is not the best player on the ice, but he’s far from the worst in the league today. It's probably true that his positive numbers in the relative categories cited above stem both from a weaker crop of teammates here (i.e. once Stone, Duchene, and Dzingel were gone, being a relatively strong performer became easier for any player in Ottawa...) and a maturation in his game compared to his earlier years, but it's not fair to fault him for the team built around him. However, Ottawa needs the latter factor to outpace the former if Duclair is going to have a role on this team moving beyond his one-year deal, because the teammates around him are bound to get better as this team works towards contention. Staying afloat in the Dead Sea is a little bit easier than staying afloat on Lake Michigan. Whether Duclair can be a driver on Lake Michigan remains to be seen.
With respect to individual production, and the eight goals he scored in those aforementioned 21 games, it’s hard to predict that he will continue to light the lamp with that measure of regularity. His career shooting percentage, including those games, is 13.1% per NHL.com; he converted at a remarkable rate of 20% to end last season with the Senators. It’s simply not sustainable. But, quite frankly, that's okay. It doesn't have to be sustainable for Duclair's upcoming campaign to be a success.
The bottom line, from this blogger’s perspective, is that Duclair has shown that he can hold his own with this Senators group. His audition to end the year did a lot of good, and likely earned him an opportunity to build on it moving forward. While there’s certainly a little bit of a mirage element to the success he garnered in 2018-19, it’s hard to complain about the value the Senators will derive from a one-year, $1.65M contract if his on-ice impact is in the same neighborhood again in 2019-20. If he can keep his head above water at even strength relative to his teammates like he did to end last year and be a positive WAR player, the signing will be a success regardless of whether the offensive totals are there are not.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart was the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz from 2012 to 2015, and has been the Ottawa Senators writer since September 2019. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.