The battle for the final playoff spot, and the right to to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs KEEPS getting tighter...
The current race looks like this...
4. Montreal 49 points, 46 GP 5. Calgary 44 points, 47 GP 6. Vancouver 41 points in 41 GP
11 days ago, on April 14th, I ran the numbers and the final projected points worked out to this...
4. Montreal 62.34 points 5. Calgary 56.21 points 6. Vancouver 55.40 points
11 Days Later and it's gotten a HELL of a lot closer...
The Current HockeyBuzz Projected Final Points 4. Montreal 58.54 5. Vancouver 55.02 6. Calgary 53.93
So in 11 days Montreal went 2-5 and lost 3.8 projected points Calgary went 3-2 has lost 1.5 projected points Vancouver went 3-1 and gained .6 projected points
So while it has gotten closer, you can see how hard it is for teams to close gaps right now...and none of these games were 3 point games.
Why did Calgary and Vancouver lose projected points?
Well Calgary played 4 of the 5 games were against Montreal, and the Flames got 6 of 8 points from Montreal, but previously had gotten 4 of 6 points against Montreal, so those wins at about that rate were expected. The loss to Ottawa did the rest,
Vancouver defeated the Leafs twice, but split with Ottawa, a team they had gone 5-0 against.
What Can Put Calgary or Vancouver in the playoffs? Calgary and Montreal play Monday. If Calgary beat Montreal AGAIN in regulation the FINAL gap closes by .5 points Montreal 58.04 Calgary 55.25
Let's keep that result for the sake of argument and move on... Lock Montreal's total point value at 58
Calgary has two games against Edmonton. Edmonton has so far won this series..Calgary has gotten 6 of a possible 16 points. or .75 points per game against Edmonton..so they are projected to get 1.5 points out the two oilers games.
If they were to get two wins (4 points) against Edmonton, Calgary jumps to 57.75...Only .25 back.
Lets say Calgary gets 2 out of four points... They get to 55.75 not very helpful...
But Calgary has struggled mightily against Ottawa this season. They only have 1 game left with the Sens, but in that game, the Flames are projected only .55 points... A win againts the Sens bumps them 1.5 points higher in the projected...
Let's look at the biggest elephant...The Final 4 Games against Vancouver. The Flames have gotten 8 of 12 points in this series. (1.33 PPG) The Flames have gotten 5 of 12 points in this series. (0.71 PPG)
If Calgary were to beat Montreal, and win all 4 against Vancouver.. Calgary Projects to 57.93..a virtual tie with Montreal's 48 Then, only a split with Edmonton or getting 2 points against Ottawa puts them in the playoffs...
If Vancouver were to keep consistent with how they have played teams, but win the 4 against Calgary, the Canucks end with 60 points. 2 points ahead of Montreal.
The Canucks also can make up the distance with their 5 games against Edmonton..
So far, the Canucks have gotten 4 of 10 possible points from the Oilers. (0.8 Points per game)
if the Canucks average ONLY 1 point a game versus Edmonton and Calgary the rest of the way they finish with a projected 57.1 points...1 behind Montreal. And EVERY point they get beyond that is an extra point directly into their projections...
NOTE: I know this was a lot of math and DAMN confusing. For anyone besides me who truly understands half of this, I'm impressed...But to make it as simple as possible...
Later, to clarify, I can post the Games left for Montreal, Calgary, and Vancouver, and their projected points... any better or worse than these....and well...you get it...
Bottom Line...It is still in Montreal's hands, but both Vancouver and Calgary are very much in this, with the Canucks holding their fates more directly...
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