Last night 3-2 +.85 Units YTD 93-79 +9.16 Units
A busy Thursday night with 10 games on the card that includes 5 rematches from Tuesday night! Caps/Flyers is a big game, as it’s only the third time they have met this year. Five points separate these two teams in the East Division and the Flyers have two games in hand. A Flyers win and the top 5 in the division gets even tighter!
Jets/Leafs is another big game, as the Leafs have lost three straight under Sheldon Keefe for the first time. Toronto is only four points ahead of Winnipeg and they have two more in the next three nights. The North Division could be even closer after Saturday nights game.
The last game of the night has Daryl Sutter coaching his first game for the Flames, in his second stint as head coach. Montreal is in a tough spot here, with Calgary rested since Sunday night, the Habs have played Monday and Wednesday in Vancouver then travel to Calgary. The Flames need this one badly and the schedule plays in their favour. Must win, can you say?!
**I am going to start researching teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Buffalo is off a 5 game road trip tonight!!
I am starting a new angle that you will see in Scenario #1. It’s a very small size, but it’s 4-0 this week and there are 4 more spots like this between now and March 18th. I will track it and see how its plays out here for all those that read the column.
Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 4-0 in less than a week of tracking it! Play Calgary tonight as Montreal played in Vancouver last night, then travelled to Calgary right after the game.
Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 47-28! Toronto, Detroit and Columbus fit the system tonight.
Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 16-19 when teams play on the road back to back nights.
Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 67-53 in that situation. Chicago and Nashville fit the system tonight.
Quick stat updates - First period totals going over were 2-3 last night and are 180-210 on the season. Road teams were 2-3 last night and are 185-198 on the season. Game totals going over the total were 4-1 last night and are 194-183-5 on the season.
Gamenotes for tonight –
Rangers/Bruins – Boston has won 3 of 4 head to head this season with three going under the total.
Pens/Sabres – Buffalo off 5 game road trip. First meeting of the season between these two teams.
NJ/NYI – All three have gone under the total this season, while NYI has won 2 of the 3 head to head meetings.
Caps/Flyers – They split the first 2 games of the season head to head. Both teams have identical road vs. home records.
Preds/Canes – Carolina has won 6 in a row overall and all three meetings head to head this season.
Panthers/Jackets – Panthers one of the best road teams in the NHL! They have won 2 of 3 head to head with CLB this year.
Jets/Leafs – 2nd of 3 straight head to head, teams have split the first 2 games.
TB/Detroit – TB has won all 3 games head to head this year, but Detroit blew Tuesday nights game and I expect another strong effort on homeice for the Wings! Hawks/Stars – Can the Hawks rebound off a terrible outing on Tuesday night? Hawks have won 2 of the 3 head to head match ups this season.
Habs/Flames – Very rested Flames team catching the Habs 3 in 4 nights on the road! Sutter’s first game as HC too. Teams split the first 2 meetings this season.
System plays for 2 Units each tonight(home teams) – Toronto – ML(-179) Detroit – ML(+300) Columbus – ML(+115) Calgary – ML(-115)
System plays for 1 Unit each tonight(road teams) – (not playing Nashville tonight)
Chicago – ML(+125) Pittsburgh – ML(-190)
Feel free to ask any questions in the blog and I always get back to everyone. I will have Twitter and Instagram going shortly. Good luck tonight!
Puckpix