The Toronto Maple Leafs made a mistake. It’s okay. We’ve all done it at one point or another. What else could you call their decision to trade Connor Brown to the Ottawa Senators in the Cody Ceci deal, though?
To start the year, Brown has been on an absolute tear. With 10 points in 11 games, all while shooting at less than half of his career shooting percentage, he has been an offensive leader for a virtually impotent Senators squad. The most exciting aspect of that production is that the underlying numbers suggest it might be somewhat sustainable. As per Natural Stat Trick, his five-on-five on-ice shot attempt share, scoring chance share, and expected goal share are all north of 50%. That’s especially impressive considering the strength, or lack thereof, of the team around him.
While it’s true that his on-ice shooting percentage is relatively high right now, it reasons to suggest that any regression there will be coupled with opposing regression in his individual shooting percentage. Simply stated, the expected drop in production from that on-ice shooting percentage falling might not be as significant as a PDO of 105 would initially suggest.
All of those stats should tell any impartial reader that there’s a real chance that the Leafs let one get away by dealing Brown to Ottawa. When you then consider that his 10 points on the year would rank fifth on the Leafs, and look at a comparison of some of the underlying numbers, that conclusion becomes even more pronounced:
What Connor Brown has done to start the year with Ottawa is really quite impressive, especially when you consider the QoT he left in Toronto and what he deals with now.
— Michael Stuart (@hockeybuzzstu) November 1, 2019
Data from @NatStatTrick pic.twitter.com/vAu18dEv7w
Playing in the last year of a deal that pays him $2.1M per season, Brown is earning his salary and then some. Getting this much value out of relatively affordable pieces is what contending teams do. More than that, it's something teams *like the Leafs* need to do. It will be really interesting to see whether the Senators look to cash in on the 25-year-old’s production via trade, or if they seek to extend him into the future. After struggling to find a consistent and comfortable role in Toronto, perhaps the opportunity to be a go-to guy in Ottawa is attractive to him. He never had that with the Leafs.
Not that I spend much time in the Toronto Twittersphere, but one of the things I always found interesting about Brown’s tenure there was the way that the pundits often seemed to describe him as an expendable fourth liner, while fans consistently suggested that there was something more there. If the start to his Ottawa career is any indication, those fans were correct all along.
Happy Halloween!!