Having enjoyed a whopping six days of celebration after their Stanley Cup triumph, the Tampa Bay Lightning now find themselves in an unenviable situation: The league’s salary cap will remain flat for next season, and the Bolts have a strong need to clear money.
To get a sense of just how dire the situation is, consider that CapFriendly shows the team with just more than $5M in cap space, despite only fifteen bodies on the roster. Getting players like Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, and Erik Cernak, among others, under contract is going to take some creativity on the part of GM Julien BriseBois.
Granted, it’s not as though the Lightning’s salary cap crunch should be a surprise to anyone; this moment has been visible on the horizon for months, if not years. What has changed in recent days, though, is the level of urgency on the file. That’s true for a couple reasons:
1) With the entry draft scheduled to start on Tuesday, the opportunity to trade contributing NHL assets for low-cost picks is now. Sure, the Lightning could trade for picks tied to future years, but hockey’s own time value of money calculation suggests that a pick today is worth more than a pick tomorrow. Further to that, in the event that the Lightning are forced to add sweeteners to clear cap space, acquiring teams will almost certainly prefer current-year selections.
2) Free agency opens later this week, which means that players like the aforementioned Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak could be prime targets for an offer sheet that would really force Tampa’s hand. Getting the cap situation under control in advance would send a clear signal to the rest of the league that the Lightning aren’t going to let these players slip away under any circumstance.
The reality that these two factors combined creates is one in which long-time, favorite Lightning players are likely to be on their way out. Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn are the names that seem to pop up most frequently in social media discussions – for good reason. Johnson is not the same player he was when he signed the deal that pays him $5M per season through 2023-24, and Killorn’s lack of full no-trade protection makes him an easy target on an otherwise shielded roster. Then there’s also the possibility of clearing smaller sums by dealing players like Braydon Coburn or Cedric Paquette, too.
Regardless of what path BriseBois chooses to pursue, it seems probable that any move will involve either the Lightning giving or receiving draft pick compensation. So, again, the time for these deals is now. The party might be officially over. **UPDATE - It looks as though the ball is already rolling:**
Hearing that Tampa Bay has talked to Tyler Johnson’s camp about working together on a possible move. Johnson has a full no-trade clause. Let’s see where this goes.
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) October 5, 2020
As always, thanks for reading.