In a normal 82-game NHL season, I would reserve my judgement on the performance of the Buffalo Sabres until after the first 20-games in the season. In a non-COVID world, one could form an informed synopsis of the pluses and minuses of the Sabres. This season is a much different season.
The compressed 56-game schedule has me analyzing the Sabres after Game 10.
The Sabres have impressed me and also infuriated me at times in the early going.
Such polarity was to be expected. One minute they are dominating an opponent with promising puck possession while the next moment they are giving up three goals in the final minute of play in a period, in the same game. Serrenity now.
Eichel & Associates were forced to sit at home and not play menaingful NHL games ten excruciating months that spanned March 10, 2020 to January 14, 2021.
The Sabres have played .500 (4-4-2) and have banked 10 of 20 possible points. I wouldn't plan the Stanley Cup parade down Delaware Avenue yet. However, I'm encouraged for the final 46 games based on the preview of the special attractions that I have seen from the Sabres this season.
I'm not concerned about their record because they are getting improved play from all 13 forwards and the 7 defensemen. The chemistry hasn't been immediate with eight new players being added to the roster during the hockey hiatus. Having only ten days of training camp sessions with no exhibition games didn't help the Sabres to find their identity in the first three weeks of the 2021 season.
The Sabres are getting primary, secondary and tertiary scoring. Despite having only four combined goals from Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall and Jeff Skinner, the Sabres have still scored 30 goals while allowing 32 goal against.
The swords are pointing up on Buffalo's even strength scoring.
Their even strength numbers have improved on the team’s per-60 rates from the 2019-20 season in several meaningful categories including: shot differential, shot attempt differential, scoring chance differential, high-danger scoring chance differential and expected goal differential.
SF% CF% SCF% HDCF% xGF% 2019-20 48.13 (23rd) 49.13 (19th) 48.73 (20th) 48.19 (25th) 47.56 (25th)
2020-21 49.68 (20th) 50.86 (15th) 51.33 (15th) 54.78 (8th) 51.11 (14th) ( Source: Natural Stat Trick )
Through 10 games this season, the Sabres have led its opponent at even strength in:
Shots: four times Shot attempts: six times Scoring chances: seven times High-danger scoring chances: eight times Expected goals: eight times
The Buffalo Sabres power play is allowing the Sabres to stay in games and earn valuable points in the East Division standings. The Buffalo power play is ranked 7th in the NHL with a 30.8% success rate (12 for 39).
The Sabres have scored at least one power-play goal in each of their last five games, going 9-for-22 (40.9%) in those games.
The Sabres lead the NHL with nine different players with at least one goal on the power play. Their 10 players with at least one power-play point this season tied for fourth-most in the NHL.
Victor Olofsson leads the team and is tied for sixth in the NHL with 3 PPG this season. His team-high eight power-play points trailed only Connor McDavid (10) and Leon Draisaitl (9). Olofsson's 16 career power-play goals trailed only Draisaitl and David Pastrnak (20 each) for the most in the NHL since he made his NHL debut on March 28, 2019.
The Buffalo penalty kill has risen to the challenge in the first ten games this season. Sabres are the least-penalized team in the NHL with 5:30 of penalty time per game. At plus-16 (42 drawn/26 taken), the Sabres also had the best penalty differential in the NHL.
The Sabres have killed 13 of their last 14 penalties to improve to 82.6% on the PK this season, ranking 10th in the NHL.
Through 10 games, Buffalo has allowed just four PPG against and is ranked fifth in the NHL with .40 power-play goals against per game.
In the Sabres’ last game on Sunday vs. New Jersey, the penalty kill went 3-for-3 and did not surrender a single shot on goal in 5:09 of shorthanded time.
Not only are the special teams red hot, but so too are the Sabres centermen who are dominating opponents on the faceoff dot. Sabres GM Kevyn Adams was tasked with acquiring the hard to find unicorn second line center to replace Ryan O'Reilly. Adams found that dominant pivot in Eric Staal. Staal scored his 439th career goal on Saturday against the Devils to pass Gary Roberts and improve to 68th on the NHL’s all-time goal-scoring list. Staal's next goal will tie Rick Tocchet for 67th all-time.
Among active players, Staal’s total of 439 career regular-season goals trails only Alex Ovechkin, Patrick Marleau, and Sidney Crosby.
After he acquired Staal, Adams also doubled down on improving his bottom six centers by signing Cody Eakin as a UFA and Riley Sheahan to a professional tryout contract that led to a well earned one year contract. Today, Adams looks like a genius as the Sabres rank second in the NHL with a team faceoff success rate of 55.9%.
#Sabres are only NHL team whose top four faceoff men (Eichel, Staal, Eakin and Sheahan) all have a FO% of at least 50%. The four #Sabres centers are currently on pace for career-high faceoff percentages
— SabresBuzz (@SabresBuzz) February 1, 2021
The Sabres are the only team that has its top four centers (Jack Eichel, Eric Staal, Cody Eakin and Riley Sheahan) all with FO% of at least 50% entering their game against the Islanders on Tuesday night. Eichel, Staal, Eakin and Sheahan are currently on pace for career-high faceoff percentages.
Eichel is tied for second in the NHL in faceoffs taken (213) and ranked third in FOW (116). Sheahan ranks third among all players with at least 30 faceoffs taken this season with a win percentage of 65.2% (45-for-69).
Buffalo has gotten stellar goaltending from Linus Ullmark, who was forced to start five straight games after Carter Hutton suffered a head injury in Philly on January on January 18. Ullmark is 3-1-2 with a 2.56 GAA and .914 SV%.
Ullmark has become a lifsaver and a point gainer with his shootout heroics. Ullmark stopped all three New Jersey shooters on Saturday to improve to 2-1 with nine saves on 10 shootout attempts this season.
Ullmark is 6-3 in shootouts in his career with 30 saves on 35 career shots faced (.857). His six career shootout wins rank him third in franchise history behind Ryan Miller (49) and Jhonas Enroth (10).
Ullmark’s shootout save percentage of .857 ranked second all-time among NHL goaltenders with at least 20 shots faced and first among active NHL goalies.
I'm still confident that the Sabres will earn a playoff spot this season. Eichel, Hall, and Skinner will scofre their 20 goals each this season. In the meantime, the Sabres are getting goals from Samsons Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, Dylan Cozens, Eric Staal, Toby Rieder and their defense corps. The D will continue to jump and join the rush. The D and forwards will continue to score at even strength and on the power play. I still would like to see Kevyn Adams make a trade for a second goaltender. Ullmark has the goods to start multiple games in a row. I'd like to see a veteran goalie be brought in to add more depth and more experience to the goal crease. The Sabres have a surplus of NHL defensemen and a couple of prospects that are fighting for their ice time. Adams can trade a veteran D like Colin Miller away in exchange for a veteran goalie. The Vegas Golden Knights have lost veteran left defenseman Brayden McNabb to a long term injury. The Golden Knights need a veteran defenseman to plug and play in McNabb's absence and have Marc Andre Fleury to use as trade currency.