Well then…
With the 4th overall pick, the Ottawa Senators drafted Brady Tkachuk. That wouldn’t have sounded that crazy a couple months ago after we found out where they would be drafting, but considering that Montreal took Jesperi Kotkaniemi at 3rd, it is pretty shocking to see them pass on Filip Zadina.
I’m not going to lie, I was pretty upset with the pick. I’m not necessarily upset because of who Tkachuk is, but because getting Zadina at 4th would’ve been a steal. Zadina is someone who has potential to become a 30+ goal scorer in the league, and realistically, the only place you can find those players are through the draft. Tkachuk on the other hand, is more of a safe pick and someone that is easier to acquire.
When you have the opportunity to draft at the top, I think it’s important to go for the best player available and go for someone that has a high ceiling, because you won’t be able to pick that high every year. The thing is, I’d be happy with getting Tkachuk in the 8-15 range, but it’s extremely disheartening to know that Zadina was left on the board.
Obviously we don’t know what the future will hold, and perhaps Tkachuk ends up being the better player. However, these graphs from Ryan Biech don’t exactly comfort me:
.@detroitredwings select Filip Zadina
— Ryan Biech (@ryanbiech) June 23, 2018
Zadina presents an 80.5% success rate with 50.5 point production per 82 games played. pic.twitter.com/gBA8swzHfz
.@senators select Brady Tkachuk
— Ryan Biech (@ryanbiech) June 23, 2018
37.2% success rate with expected production of 40.6 points pic.twitter.com/logeuHfmK9
At the end of the day, Tkachuk is going to get a lot of flak from people that isn’t totally fair because he will be compared to Zadina. But overall, he’s still a very good prospect and has a very good chance to be an NHL player. Manny Elk summarized my thoughts on this pretty well:
My actual take on Ottawa's pick at 4: I think the criticism towards Tkachuk has gotten out of hand, and I do think he's a top prospect. It's by no means a wasted pick. However, passing on Zadina is tough. Really tough. He should've been a lock at #3 behind Svechnikov.
— manny (@MannyElk) June 23, 2018
This does sting a bit more because I think it confirms the organizational tendency to pass on skill in favour of "character," which I really believe is unacceptable when drafting in the first round (let alone top 5).
— manny (@MannyElk) June 23, 2018
I don’t not like Tkachuk as a player, and I’m not opposed to drafting him. But drafting him at four when there were other players (mainly Zadina) available with more upside isn’t a great look. We can still focus on the good news though, as he has a chance to become a mainstay in the Senators top-6 as soon as 2019, as he’ll most likely spend one more year at Boston University.
He’ll bring some grit and energy to the lineup, which is something that fans have been pining for, and he’ll still be able to be a decent point producer. If he can be at least a second line player, he’s going to become a fan favourite quite quickly. Luckily there’s still something to look forward to with Tkachuk.
If you're worried about Tkachuk pick, Pronman's got this on him in his live write-up: "Ottawa left some skill on the table, but Tkachuk is a highly intelligent and skilled player in his own right. He instantly becomes their top prospect and is probably a year away."
— The 6th Sens (@6thSens) June 23, 2018
With the Senators second selection, they ended up moving down from 22nd, as they acquired the 26th and 48th overall picks from the New York Rangers. It was surprising to see Ottawa actually move down for once, and I love it, as they got fantastic value for moving down just four spots. In the 26th spot, they took defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker, which was slightly off the board considering which rankings you are looking at.
I’ll be honest, Bernard-Docker wasn’t on my mind and I was hoping for a few other names, but I did kind of predict this would happen…
*looks at mock draft*
— Trevor Shackles (@ShackTS) June 21, 2018
Ah yes, let's get...*squints*
Jacob Bernard-Docker at 4th overall
I don’t know a whole lot about him mainly because he played in the Alberta Junior Hockey League, and it’s hard to evaluate how good that league really is. Despite it not being somebody I’m super thrilled about, it isn’t necessarily a bad pick. Multiple people have talked about him being a “new age defenseman,… which is better than Ottawa taking a stay-at-home defenseman:
Middle pairing guy. Game is geared for the new age NHL. Two way, smooth skating puck mover. Can help on special teams and eat minutes @FCHockey
— Justin Froese (@FroeseFC) June 23, 2018
He might not have the upside as some other prospects that went around him, and some scouts like Corey Pronman aren’t enamored with his ceiling:
Pronman's pick-by-pick live draft analysis: "(Bernard-Docker)’s not a real upside pick. He’s a good kid, plays a reliable game, can move the puck, but I don’t think he’s going to be an impact guy."
— The 6th Sens (@6thSens) June 23, 2018
Nevertheless, if you’re able to get a top-four defenseman at the end of the first round, that’s a win. With 41 points in 49 games, Bernard-Docker at least seems like somebody who can contribute at both ends of the ice, so I’m excited to see what he can do at the University of North Dakota next season.
Furthermore, he shoots right-handed, so he might have a quicker route to the NHL than expected.
Like with any draft, you can never tell if you “won… or not, but it’s still exciting to add two prospects like Tkachuk and Bernard-Docker to the fold. It’s disappointing that they didn’t go for higher ceiling players again, but if they become NHL regulars then it isn’t too big of a deal.
Stay tuned for rounds 2-7 and day two of the draft!