With the New Jersey Devils yet to kick their off-season into high gear – they haven't re-signed any players, and they still can't acquire talent from other NHL teams – I thought it'd be fun to look back at my Eastern Conference standings predictions for the season that was.
Let's start with the Metro Division.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins – Led by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel, the Penguins once again have an elite forward core that should light up the scoreboard on a nightly basis. Their defense isn't stout in its own end but they have enough skating/puck moving ability to quickly get it up to their forwards and drive play in the right direction. If Matt Murray bounces back, they'll be tough to beat.
In the Metro, Washington was the only team to score more goals (278 vs 273) and no team finished with a better differential (+32). The offense was good, as was the team (though inconsistent). Murray also bounced back with a rock-solid .919SV% in a year goaltending numbers were down league-wide. Though the Penguins finished four points out of 1st, I think I was on the right track here.
2. Columbus Blue Jackets** – I really, really, really like this Blue Jackets team. They are deep up front and have a nice mix of high-end skill, speed, and physicality. In Seth Jones and Zach Werenski, they have two fantastic blueliners more than capable of doing the heavy lifting. The Jackets also have arguably the best goaltender in the league mending the crease on a nightly basis.Unfortunately, the uncertain futures of Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky have cast a cloud over the franchise. Will they stick around all year? Will their play be hindered by contract concerns? Nobody knows but, if things don't get ugly off the ice, I think the Blue Jackets have the pieces in place to be excellent.
The seeding was off but I was right to be high on this team. The Jackets' win total was just one below the division-winning Capitals in the regular season and they fared very well in the playoffs taking six games – including four against arguably the best team we have seen in a decade, and two against the favored team in the Stanley Cup Final.
3. Philadelphia Flyers – This is it. This is the year of the Flyera.
Narrator voice: it wasn't.
I'm just going to cut myself off because I was not even close on this one. I thought the Flyers had a very deep, talented forward core that would lead them to the playoffs if their goaltending was average. Unfortunately, the offense wasn't as good as I expected (18th in goals) and they certainly didn't have average goaltending, finishing 29th in team save percentage.
4. Washington Capitals – Last year they won a lot of games where they were on the wrong end of the scoring chance battle and I'm not sure that's a good recipe for success over time.They are a top-heavy team – 35 point forward Tom Wilson skates on their top line Brooks Orpik averaged almost 20 minutes per game last year – and I think the loss of Philipp Grubauer is much bigger than people suggest.
Last season Grubauer played in 35 games and posted a .923 save percentage. Pheonix Copley – fresh off a .896 save percentage in 41 AHL games – is unlikely to provide even average goaltending, let alone what Grubauer gave the team.
The Caps' stars will win them a fair share of games but I think this team is going to take a step back.
Is it possible to be wrong and right about the same team? I think I was. The Capitals won the division so I was off putting them 4th. That said, they won one more game than the 5th seed in the Metro and were taken out in the opening round. Pheonix Copley didn't come close to matching Philipp Grubauer's output (.905SV% vs .917SV%) either.
5. Carolina Hurricanes – While the Hurricanes may not have established stars and name brand guys up front, their offense should be solid with Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, and Jordan Staal leading the charge.Their blueline is stacked from top-to-bottom with smart, mobile puck movers who can also keep tight gaps and handle themselves defensively.
The big question mark *again* is goaltending. The Hurricanes need Petr Mrazek and/or Scott Darling to step forward and give them at least average goaltending. If that happens, the Hurricanes will likely be a playoff team. If not, they'll fall short once again. I really hope it's the former because this team has a lot of talent and plays an eye-pleasing style of game.
It took 30 years but my Hurricanes pre-season predictions finally came true. They were given something resembling competent goaltending, and they took advantage squeezing into a wild card spot and making plenty of noise come playoff time.
6. New Jersey Devils – This should be fun. *sighs*I like the team's forwards. I do. Taylor Hall is an absolute monster, Nico Hischier is ready to be a star, Marcus Johansson and Kyle Palmieri should be safe bets for 45-50 points, and it's possible – perhaps even likely – Pavel Zacha, Miles Wood, and Jesper Bratt all take steps forward. Throw in some responsible defensive forwards like Blake Coleman, Stefan Noesen and Travis Zajac and the forward core looks to be in pretty good shape.
My problem with the team is from the blueline in. Mirco Mueller and a declining Andy Greene are currently penciled in as the top-4 defenders on the left side. That is...not at all good. Sami Vatanen is solid and Damon Severson is better than some give him credit for but they're not top-pairing guys who are going to lift up others. The Devils need Will Butcher to shore up his defensive play a bit and force the coaching staff to give him 20+ minutes a night otherwise they'll probably be in trouble.
As much as I love Cory Schneider, I'm not sure he can be relied upon to consistently clean up the messes in front of him. He is recovering from off-season surgery and, unfortunately, his numbers over the last couple of years suggest his best days are behind him.
Keith Kinkaid put together a fantastic 2nd half but years of data suggest he's not much more than an average backup. Expecting him to be the answer will likely result in disappointment.
There's a lot to get to here. Taylor Hall did not play a single game in 2019, Marcus Johansson was sold off to the highest bidder, and Pavel Zacha/Miles Wood did not take the expected steps forward. That led to a disappointing offense.
The defense, as, predicted was not very good, nor was the goaltending. Schneider struggled for most of the season, and Kinkaid was one of the league's worst goalies prior to New Jersey dealing him at the deadline.
Mix it all together and the Devils didn't just take two backward steps. They took 100.
7. New York Islanders – Despite losing John Tavares, the Islanders still have a good top-6. Mathew Barzal is #elite, Jordan Eberle is solid, Anders Lee is basically a lock for 30+ goals, and there are some other nice pieces (like Anthony Beauvillier).The list of positives on this team pretty much ends there. Their bottom-6 forwards are littered with offensively inept possession anchors. It's probably the worst group in the league.
Things aren't much better defensively. I mean, they're relying on Luca Sbisa to help solidify things. Barry Trotz might be able to tighten things up a *tad* but the team is probably still going to bleed chances. I don't think Robin Lehner or Thomas Greiss is capable of holding up in those circumstances.
I was way off on the Islanders. I thought they'd be a bottom-feeder and they made the playoffs. There's no getting around that. While I was right to be skeptical of their offense beyond the top-6, Barry Trotz helped turn one of 2017-18's worst defensive teams into one of the best in 2018-19. The goaltending was also fantastic from start to finish. I'll eat my words on this prediction.
8. New York Rangers – The rebuilding Rangers look to be in line for another tough year. I think their offense will be respectable with Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello and Pavel Buchnevich leading the charge but their defense has some question marks, to put it nicely. Though Henrik Lundqvist will steal some games, the Rangers seem like a good bet to lose a lot of games and allow a lot of goals.
In large part due to horrendous team defense, the Rangers finished 7th in the division and won just 32 times in 82 games. I think this is a win.
To the Atlantic, we go.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning - They have players that should seriously contend for the Rocket Richard, Art Ross, Norris, and Vezina. They're also very deep. I don't think the Lightning will run away with the division but I like them to win it.
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes...damn it. I was doing so well until the bit about them not running away with the division.
2. Toronto Maple Leafs - An already elite offense should be even better with John Tavares joining the fold. The continued development of numerous core players will help as well. I think their defense is a little better than it gets credit for and Frederik Andersen is more than capable of providing above average goaltending. The Leafs will be very good.
Honestly, I stand by all of this. Boston was just a little better.
3. Boston Bruins - The Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak line is the best in the league. Thanks in large part to the emergence of Jake DeBrusk, Ryan Donato, and Danton Heinen, the Bruins should be able to keep that elite top unit intact without worrying about a lack of secondary scoring. I think the defense is fine and, while Tuukka Rask may be a little overrated at this point in his career, a Rask/Jaroslav Halak duo should be good enough to get the job done.
The Bruins dealt Donato to help land a better player right now in Charlie Coyle, and also picked up Marcus Johansson for a scoring boost. I think this mostly holds up, although the Rask/Halak duo was more than good enough to get the job done. It was one of the league's best from start to finish.
4. Florida Panthers - With the addition of Mike Hoffman, their top-6 is among the best in the league. Full seasons from Henrik Borgstrom and Frank Vatrano should give their bottom-6 some needed pop as well. If the goaltending holds up – a healthy Roberto Luongo would help – they'll be in the mix for a Wild Card spot.
The goaltending certainly did not hold up. Florida finished 30th in team save percentage and were neck-and-neck with San Jose for 31st until the last couple days of the season. The Panthers did have some other issues but goaltending was by far the biggest reason they didn't seriously contend for a playoff spot. If it improves next season – it should with Sergei Bobrovsky! – I think the Panthers will be right back in the mix.
5. Buffalo Sabres - Jeff Skinner and Conor Sheary will provide some much-needed speed and scoring ability on the wings. Rasmus Dahlin should be an impact player on defense from the word go. Unfortunately, the Sabres are still pretty shallow and are probably a year or two away from really pushing for a playoff spot.
I had them 5th. They finished 6th. Otherwise, I think this prediction was perfect.
6. Montreal Canadiens - They're lacking high-end talent but they do have some underrated two-way players (Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry, etc.) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi looks ready to provide them a needed spark offensively. If Carey Price bounces back, they could be respectable.
The Canadiens were better than respectable. They were fairly good. Though they didn't get into the playoffs, they finished 14th in points and their underlying numbers suggest they might have even been a little better than that.
7. Detroit Red Wings - They have some skilled young forwards (Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou, Filip Zadina, etc.) but their defense is old, slow, and severely lacking in talent. I think it'll be another tough year for the Red Wings.
They finished 7th in the division and the positives and negatives about the team were as expected. I'm not going to give myself too much credit, though. I think 99% of people thought the same of this team.
8. Ottawa Senators - The Sens don't have many quality, established NHL forwards and it's possible they sell one, or both, of their best (Mark Stone/Matt Duchene) during the season. On defense, Cody Ceci seems destined to play 22-25 minutes per night, which tells you all you need to know about the state it is in. This could be an ugly, ugly, season.
They sold their top forwards, Cody Ceci averaged 22:30, and the Senators picked up 64 points. Does that count as an ugly, ugly, season?
All in all, I think my predictions held up nicely. Several were on the money and most were at least in the right ballpark, although there were a couple of downright ugly ones (namely the Flyers and Islanders). Hopefully I can improve next season.