I had never been so mad about a series being tied 2-2. To make matters more fanatical, the Oilers have been outplayed in probably three of the four games, so being tied 2-2 in some light is a blessing. On the other hand, the referees blew three calls that cost Edmonton Game 4 and I’m still not over it.
While it’s fine for me to still hold a grudge and wake up angry at the referees, the Oilers have to move on. Klefbom, Larsson, and Lucic need to move past the reversed icing call that caught all of them off guard and eventually out of position. Talbot needs to move past the Corey Perry interference that cost the team the first goal and, as a result of losing the challenge, the 2nd goal as well.
What this team must not do, is continue to forget the errors that have plagued them all series long.
One of the interesting things that Carlyle’s Ducks have done is adjust to the moves McLellan has made. The strength of the Ducks roster is definitely down the middle. Both Kesler and Getzlaf are playing well and the Ducks want Kesler out against McDavid. If it works then why not? While the Oilers were using home ice advantage to get their preferred lines out away from Kesler, Carlyle switched to having both Getzlaf and Kesler out for faceoffs.
Because the Ducks were so consistently winning faceoffs it allowed them to win the draw and immediately change out the person they wanted. It was part of the reason Getzlaf played so much in Game 4, but it was also one of the more interesting ways they negated home ice for Edmonton. Now that they’re at home they won’t have to use those tactics as much or maybe at all depending on how things turn out.
To echo the sentiment of a lot of my fancy-stat familiar colleagues, when the faceoffs are in that normal range of 45% to 55% I think their impacts are over blown. We’re talking about winning 4 of 9 draws versus 5 of 9 draws. It’s not that great of an advantage. However, the Ducks overall are winning 60.2% of the draws in this series and it’s ugly for Edmonton’s top lines. McDavid is winning only 25.9% of his draws in the series, Draisaitl just 35.8%, and Nuge only 37.7%.
Faceoffs as a whole are way over blown. For example, I firmly believe that if the TV analysts spent as much time explain zone exits and entries as they did faceoffs the collective hockey IQ of the average fan would jump 20 points. In this series, though, Edmonton’s poor faceoff ability really contributed to the tactics that helped the Ducks beat them in games three and four. They didn’t lose those games because of faceoff, but because of faceoffs Anaheim had an important path to victory. If that makes sense.
LINEUP
I’m not expecting major changes now.
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl Lucic RNH Eberle Caggiula Letestu Kassian Pouliot Desharnais Slepyshev
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Russell Nurse Benning
Talbot Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) A Full Sixty. It’s super cliché, and I get that, but the reason the Oilers allowed the refs to dictate the outcome of that game was because they only really played 30 minutes of it. The first period was one of the best first periods of Oiler playoff hockey and then the team became very complacent. The Ducks made adjustments, as they have all series long, and the Oilers couldn’t cope with them. Where they were the first to pucks and pushing play in the opening 20, they were reactive and a step behind in the middle 20. Then it still took another 9-10 minutes into the 3rd period before the Oilers got their legs going again. That’s not going to cut it. The best game the Oilers have played in this series has been the first and that was a lot closer than even the score would indicate. It’s been Anaheim in the driver seat for most of this series and that’s partially because they’ve been playing complete games. At the bare minimum they haven’t completely caved in at times like Edmonton has. This is dig-deep time.
2) Board Play. I’ve been talking about board play for about 48 hours but indulge me another few moments. The Oilers have to start owning the space in their own zone. They have to take back the boards. That means taking hits to make plays, joining scrums, generally supporting the puck in that area vs flying out of the zone looking for the quick breakout. The reason they have to take care of this now vs doing maybe what they want is because the Ducks solved that puzzle. The Ducks are abusing Edmonton’s preferred breakouts and wreaking havoc in the Oiler zone because of it. Breakouts starting along the wall have been leading to way too many turnovers because the Ducks are pressuring the skater at the wall, sealing the point ahead of him, and waiting in the middle of the ice for the puck to pop out. It’s a disaster and the pressure goes back onto the Oilers to deal with it. They can either skate the puck out with their defense, get more methodical about supporting the plays along the wall, or trying passing up the middle. I think they have the defenders to skate out, but if they just keep trying the same chip-out play at the boards it will be a disaster in game 5.
3) Big Game McDavid. Connor McDavid started game 4 like he was fired out of a cannon. The game was 2-0 after the first period but it could have been 4-0 with just a couple bounces going their way and it would have been from the stick of McDavid. So far in this series he’s had great periods, great flashes, but not a truly great game. Kesler has had his big night. Draisaitl had his big night. Getzlaf has been an absolute beast. Connor McDavid looks about ready to take his run. We know he’s more than capable of turning a game on its head. The Oilers need their best player to take a game by the throat and they need it tonight. The McDavid line leads the Oilers in scoring chances generated, but they’ve also leaked scoring chances. So far he has 7 points in 10 playoff games despite being keyed on by the opposition and shadowed non-stop. That’s fine, but if there’s a night where they need 97 to raise his game, it’s tonight.
Puck drops tonight at 8:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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