Coming off a solid rookie season with the Carolina Hurricanes, Andrei Svechnikov will look to solidify himself as an elite forward in the coming years. Svechnikov had 20 goals and 37 points in 82 games, while also finishing with excellent advanced stats, registering a 56.3 Corsi For % at even strength.
But one of the trends we see, especially among 18-year-old players, is that they’re often prone to a “sophomore slump.…
Using other forwards around the NHL as comparables, we can try to project where Svechnikov may land next season in terms of points. Below are a group of forwards from the 2012 draft and onwards who played their 18-year-old season in the NHL (or at least 25+ games of it) and how drastically their stats increased in their second season. The player’s points per 82 games average in their rookie season is listed on the left, with their PP/82 totals in their second season listed on the right and lastly, where their totals project Svechnikov’s to land next season.
*Note: There could be other forwards who came into the league in their 18-year-old season in this time frame but these are the ones I was able to find*
McDavid: 87.5/100.0: Projects Svechnikov at 42.3 p/82 Laine: 71.9/70.0: Projects Svechnikov at 36.2 p/82 MacKinnon: 63.0/48.7: Projects Svechnikov at 28.6 p/82 Hischier: 52.0/55.9: Projects Svechnikov at 39.8 p/82 Pastrnak: 48.1/41.8: Projects Svechnikov at 32.2 p/82 Galchenyuk: 46.1/39.1: Projects Svechnikov at 31.4 p/82 Barkov: 36.4/41.6: Projects Svechnikov at 42.3 p/82 Puljujarvi: 23.4/25.2: Projects Svechnikov at 39.8 p/82
Obviously though, this is only taking points into account which is a very one-dimensional way of projecting a player’s value against others.
Add in the fact that Svechnikov produced those 20 goals and 37 points while playing just 14:39 per game, plus that the Hurricanes had a shooting percentage of just 7.2% while he was on the ice and it seems unlikely that he would see a drop in points next season. You can also look at someone like Sebastian Aho, who came into the league in his 19-year-old season and scored 49 points, then upped his production to 68 points (averaged to 82 games) in the following year.
Given Svechnikov’s advanced stats, the fact that he’ll likely get an increased role in his second season and that the Hurricanes had such a subpar shooting percentage while he was on the ice and it seems like a given that he’ll see increased production next season. So though comparables would point to a down year for Svechnikov, when you look a little deeper, it seems as though he could be a candidate to avoid the dreaded "sophomore slump."
***Hi everyone, my name is Ben Shelley and I’ll be covering the Carolina Hurricanes on HockeyBuzz. I’ve been covering the New York Islanders for the past three months or so and will be writing for both teams from here on out. Thanks for reading this first article and I look forward to engaging with everyone! Feel free to follow me on Twitter at @BenShelley_20 and thanks for reading!***