We've covered off predicting the goals going into the net for the Blackhawks, now let's dive into how we think they will do at the other end of the ice.
To recap, I have the Blackhawks scoring 270 GF this year; 230 from the forwards and 40 from the defence.
Before I analyze Chicago's team defence for 2019-20, let's look back at how they've been trending:
2018-19
GA Overall = 291 (30th in the NHL) GA 5-on-5 = 185 (26th) GA 4-on-5 = 56 (31st) GAA overall = 3.55 (30th) Goaltenders (GP) = Crawford (39), Ward (33), Delia (16) Team SV% = .904
2017-18
GA Overall = 254 (23rd in the NHL) GA 5-on-5 = 174 (24th) GA 4-on-5 = 43 (10th) GAA overall = 3.10 (23rd) Goaltenders (GP) = Forsberg (35), Crawford (28), Glass (15), Berube (13), Delia (2), Foster (1) Team SV% = .911
2016-17
GA Overall = 212 (11th in the NHL) GA 5-on-5 = 138 (8th) GA 4-on-5 = 42 (15th) GAA overall = 2.59 (11th) Goaltenders (GP) = Crawford (55), Darling (32) Team SV% = .920
Some interesting trends there with the increase in goals against and inconsistency in net being the glaring one that I don't need to point out to Hawks fans.
I for one though, see a lot of positive in the above. First off, there's only one way to go, and that's up!
Second, the Blackhawks are just a couple of seasons removed from a very solid GAA (2.59) and SV% (.920).
Third, the biggest factor being the lack of uncertainty between the pipes – primarily coming from Corey Crawford's health status – was addressed this offseason with the signing of Robin Lehner.
Let's pause and take a look at Lehner's stats during the same time period:
2018-19 (NYI) GP = 46 Record = 25-13-5 GAA = 2.13 SV% = .930
2017-18 (Buffalo)
GP = 53 Record = 14-26-9 GAA = 3.01 SV% = .908 2016-17 (Buffalo)
GP = 59 Record = 23-26-8 GAA = 2.68 SV% = .920
This gives Robin Lehner a 3-year average of: GAA = 2.62 SV% = .919
Above, I've focused on the goaltending, however, there's more to it than that – there has to be a team commitment to defence. There wasn't much there last year as Coach Colliton chose to roll with a run-and-gun style of play that resulted in leaving the goalies out to dry on more nights than not.
I anticipate things will change this year. While the team is set up to pay an exciting off-the-rush style, there was an obvious focus to adding the right players to bring this Blackhawks back to earth a little with a more responsible team game.
Stan Bowman went out and added pieces that should really contribute to the defensive side of the game:
* Olli Maatta * Calvin de Haan * Robin Lehner * Ryan Carpenter * Zach Smith * Andrew Shaw
The 6 guys listed above are sure to help 5-on-5 as well as on the penalty kill.
Oh boy, let's talk about that penalty kill for a second.
The Blackhawks ranked last in the NHL in historical fashion in 2018-19 with a 72.7% "success" rate. This has to be better and I believe it will be.
The Hawks were 20th overall in 2017-18 with a 79.1%.
The year before that they were 24th with a 77.7%.
This 3-year trend has not been a great one, but even if they were able to get back to where they were in 2017-18 this season, they would be in much better shape.
CHI gave up a whopping 63 GA on the PK last season compared to 49 GA in 2017-18. That's a 14-goal difference. It's not a massive difference but everything counts.
So, here comes my prediction, which will be followed by 3 key areas on how they can improve:
PREDICTION: the 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks will surrender 248 goals against this year.
This 43-goal improvement is not as dramatic as the NYI year-over-year (293 in 2017-18 to 191 in 2018-19 = 102(!)) but it might be enough to get them sniffing at a playoff spot next year.
Last year, the Sharks (258), Maple Leafs (249) and Capitals (248) were the worst 3 teams for GA who made the playoffs.
How will the Hawks get their GA number down to this 248 range?
Improved PK – they can't get any worse, right? As I mentioned above, even if the Hawks get back to around 20th (where they were in 2017-18) they would shed about 14 goals.
Bowman made a conscious effort to bring in PK specialist and I think you will see a lot of those guys play big minutes while a man short.
A guy like Ryan Carpenter will help on faceoffs while shorthanded as well.
The Hawks PP looks like it's in good shape, so there will be a lot of focus on the PK by Colliton, Brookbank and the new assistant coaches (Crawford and Mitell). Team Stability – Overall, this team will play a more committed team defence. Colliton has mentioned it and as mentioned above, the new cast of characters that Bowman has brought in will bring an increased element of a 200-foot game.
Also, speaking of stability, the Hawks won't have to deal with a coaching change next year from a bench boss some were used to playing for over the last decade. Jeremy Colliton also has a full training camp to ensure everyone is on the same page.
The Hawks allowed 174 GA in 5-on-5 play in 2017-18 vs. last year's 185. I believe they will be able to get closer to that number from a couple of years ago. So, there are at least 11 goals right there. Consistency and Confidence in Goaltenders – One of the biggest question marks the Hawks have faced over the last couple of years has been Corey Crawford's health. He's averaged just 33.5 games from 2017-19.
I really hope for Corey's sake he can play more games next year, I'm not banking on him playing more than 40 games.
I'm going to predict a breakout of:
Lehner – 41 Crawford – 38 Delia/Lankinen – 3
Even if Crawford is healthy, this might be the best way to go if the Hawks do make the playoffs – then you have a healthy and rest 2-time cup champion ready to rock.
The big thing with the goaltending and the breakout above is the consistency. Look how the Blackhawks performed in 2016-17 when it was just Crawford and Darling between the pipes.
The GAA was 2.59 and the SV% was .920.
With a steady goaltending tandem comes confidence from the rest of the team. And if Corey isn't in, the Hawks will have a Vezina finalist in Lehner manning the pipes, which will energize them.
I see the Hawks goaltenders combining closer to those numbers; maybe not quite as good but if they will surely improve on 3.55 GAA and .904 SV% from last season.
Lehner has been at .919 over the last 3-years and we know Corey is capable as he's a .919 SV% over his 12-year career.
--
What are your thoughts? Am I crazy to think the Hawks can score 270 GF next year and get to 248 goals?
See ya out there!
JL
---