There is no need for a snappy into or over the top proclamations here. It's the first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs 2022. For two years in a row the Edmonton Oilers have been considered favorites in their first round matchups and both years have come up utterly short. The Oilers have won one playoff game in the past two seasons. That isn't acceptable and many of the guys in the room remembers the sting of those losses. However the team that exists today is far more well rounded than those previous iterations and are coached by a man who has helped this team be one of the better 5 on 5 teams in the league.
Here are the lines we should expect to see today:
Kane - McDavid - Puljujarvi
This trio has been money all season for the Edmonton Oilers. There was reasonable hesitancy prior to Kane signing in Edmonton but the 30 year old power forward has brought a strong physical presence to the Oilers top line. More important than that is this is the first time aside from Draisaitl that Connor has a true sniper with a shoot first mentality on his line. Jesse Puljujarvi is another key player on this line that many members of the media don't give nearly enough respect to. He is unbelievably tenacious on the puck, aggressively forechecks and is quietly becoming one of the best two way wingers in the game. Kane and McDavid get all the glory but JP is the stir that makes it all work together.
This trio in 160 minutes of 5 on 5 play have produced 10 goals when they are on the ice and only allowed 1 goal against. Those are the kind of numbers that a team needs in order to shut down top opposition in the playoffs.
Zach Hyman - Leon Draisaitl - Kailer Yamamoto
A moment of appreciation for Zach Hyman who has come exactly as advertised. Hyman goes to all the tough areas of the ice, he attacks the puck hard and he has enough skill and speed to compliment the top players on the ice for the Edmonton Oilers. Leon meanwhile has tied his previous career high in points while setting a career high in goals. No longer are people able to suggest that Draisaitl is only good because he plays with Connor - they don't anymore except for on the powerplay. Lastly Kailer Yamamoto, who set a new career high of 20 goals is getting hot at the right time. In his last 5 games, Yamamoto has gone 2-4-6. For Edmonton to be successful this post season they need for him to continue finding ways to get into scoring positions.
In 132 minutes of 5 on 5 play, this line has gone 8-8. The chances are being created but I would like to see them clean a few things up defensively.
Foegele -RNH - Ryan
For years the Oilers have lacked a third line that can play solid 5 on 5 minutes while outscoring the opposition. Edmonton has been able to achieve this in large part to having the winger depth to play RNH as a centre on his own line away from McDavid and Draisaitl. Both Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan struggled early in the season under Dave Tippett but both have flourished under Jay Woodcroft and become effective 5 on 5 producers. Oilers fans love to wonder who has the potential to be a Fernado Pisani type for the team in the playoffs. Both of these players have that kind of energy.
This trio have outscored the opposition 8-6 at 5 on 5 and will be tasked with shutting down the young but talented bottom six group that LA will enlist.
Brassard - McLeod - Kassian - Shore
This is less of a line and more the remaining forwards that Woodcroft will deploy in the post-season. The most important of all of these is Ryan McLeod who has really established himself as a true NHL player this season, particularly as a highly effective penalty killer under Woodcroft. He has always been a fast player but now he knows how to use that speed. Brassard is a vet who has played in many playoff games and will help calm things down in whatever games he ends up playing in. The few remaining Kassian lovers out there will be praying for him to turn things around in this series. If there was any time for "Playoff Kassian" to show up... look no further.
I imagine that Edmonton will run the 11/7 formation with the following defenders:
Nurse - Ceci
It looks like Darnell Nurse will be back for game 1 and fans can breath a sigh of relief. There are good and bad aspects of Darnell Nurse's game but he is still a top pairing defender and can log monster minutes for this club. Ceci has been a pleasant surprise this season and has gone from being expected to be a mediocre defender, to a legitimate shut down option.
Keith - Bouchard
The success or failure of the Edmonton Oilers in this post season could very well hinge on this duo. Bouchard has been playing on a whole new level these past couple of weeks and hasn't been making the bonehead plays that have led to high danger chances against. Duncan Keith on the other hand... Keith can make some great outlet passes but there are notable weaknesses to his game. I expect the Kings will attack the left side often when he is on the ice. If he can reach deep down and channel is 29 year old self that would be great.
Kulak - Barrie - Russell
Kulak has been a great signing and I would certainly hope Edmonton offers him another contract. Kulak is a calm player who makes the correct play 95% of the time and has shown he can jump up and play top 4 minutes as well. Russell hasn't played much this season and that is a good thing because a rested Russell has shown he is actually still a pretty decent player. Barrie will be logging the PP minutes and needs to have an infinitely better post-season than the one he gave Edmonton a year ago.
Mike Smith
Smith is 9-0-0 at home in his last 9 starts and has a 0.948SV% at 5 on 5 in the month of April, that is second in the league behind only Casey DeSmith of all people. Smith is on a hot streak and he needs to remain as such for the Oilers to truly make any noise.
Just a couple quick thoughts on the LA Kings:
- Edmonton is going to need to figure out how to either get their top players away from Philp Danault or find a way to beat him. Any who watched the playoffs last season and Montreal's impossible run would know that Danault was a key piece. This season Danault has been on the ice for 53 EV goals for and 41 against. He is their most dangerous 5 on 5 player and Edmonton needs to have a game plan for him.
- While not having Drew Doughty is certainly a huge blow, do not underestimate this defensive group for the Kings. Matt Roy has the second best GF% on the team at 5 on 5 behind Danualt, being at 48-34. The rookie Sean Durzi has also come in and provided support on the blueline with a solid 27 points (3-24-27) in 64 games this season.
- LA has a collection of young players in their bottom six. Lizotte (24), Byfield (19), and Kaliyev(20), are all younger players who will be playing in their first playoff hockey. Jumping on this group early while the jitters are still present could be a key to getting up in the series early for the Oilers.
- Jonathan Quick has a 0.918SV% at 5 on 5 and total SV% of 0.910% in the month of April. Quick has had something of a resurgence this season but will he look like the Quick of old against these Oilers. Obviously his play will be a huge factor in this series.
Remember to take deep breaths and try to enjoy the game.