The Penguins and Rangers met for the last time in the regular season and for the third consecutive game it was the Rangers leaving with the two points. The season series hasn’t been promising for Pittsburgh. They went 1-3 against New York and the thing that sticks out the most is the same thing that has damned the team in the playoffs in recent series. They can’t score. Even in their lone victory over the Rangers this year they scored a single goal. The other three games they scored one goal, two goals, and last night… zero goals.
The reality is teams get crisper with their attention to detail as it gets towards the end of the season and becomes playoff time. The referees will do what they do and ignore penalties. It becomes more difficult to score. It is why I am adamant each year/offseason to try and build the best four scoring lines you can. In the history of the team the Penguins have never made it through on their defensive prowess. They’ve always been driven by their offense and it correlates with their results.
While things aren’t looking great in the moment regarding their likely first round matchup against the Rangers. It does remind me of a similar situation in the 2012-13 season. During the regular season the Penguins went 3-0 against the Boston Bruins. When the two teams met in the playoffs the regular season matchups didn’t really matter all that much. It was the Bruins who went 4-0. These games against the Rangers aren’t an inherent destiny. The Penguins have a 52.8 xGF% against New York so it isn’t like they are getting clobbered and run out the building.
There is some help coming. Sidney Crosby and John Marino were unavailable last night due to non-COVID illnesses. Jason Zucker and Brock McGinn are skating in full gear and working their way back to the lineup. When the Penguins have their full lineup they have a decent team and can definitely compete with a team like the Rangers. When they’re missing four regulars it is too big a hill to climb. Getting Rickard Rakell was a necessary thing and it should pay dividends come playoff time whether directly from him or because his presence pushes a lesser forward out of the lineup.
Even if the Penguins have a fully healthy lineup Mike Sullivan is going to have to figure out how to maximize the output of his players. He will need to re-evaluate the roles for Brian Dumoulin and Jeff Carter. Two players who have a good track record of success in their roles who are currently not meeting the standard for staying in those roles. Dumoulin is playing like a bottom pairing defenseman and Jeff Carter is playing like a 4th line player. Mike Matheson and Teddy Blueger might need to be called on for an elevated role and I would be giving those players an elevated role leading into the playoffs to see how it goes. Sullivan will also have to lean into getting Crosby and Malkin out there together more often at 5v5. To his credit for the first time in a long time he has done more of it.
The results against the Rangers haven’t been ideal, especially the lack of goal scoring. That said, the version of the Penguins team facing the Rangers in the regular season doesn’t have to be the same one facing them in the playoffs. They’ll need some health luck and a coach willing to make some hard decisions.
Thanks for reading!