On the Improbability of the Capitals Victory  (Ovechkin)

The Washington Capitals were without Nicklas Backstorm, Tom Wilson and Andre Burakovsky.

They were not supposed to win, but they did.

Without half of their top-six forwards, the Capitals were up against the league's best team and twice defending champions. The win was improbable, but so is everything about this team.

After sitting out the first two games of the Playoffs, Braden Holtby has put on a Conn Smythe-worthy performance and the Capitals have gone 8-2 with a .926 save percentage.

The Penguins third line features about the same amount of NHL forwards as the entire team the Capitals were able to dress - owing to injuries and and a suspension.

The Capitals, to be clear, are not the same team that rag-dolled the Penguins and lost last year. That's the fun of hockey.

The Caps lost Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Williams, Marcus Johnson, Nate Schmidt, Derrick Winnick and Karl Alzner over the summer. That's more than 25% of what was - by far - the NHL's best team last year.

At the tradedeadline, they made zero significant additions.

Their franchise goalie was benched entering the Playoffs and, I think just about everyone suspected a first-round loss and the subsequent departure of the coach was a forgone conclusion.

Then they lost the first two games at home against the Blue Jackets.

Odds of coming back: somewhere under 5%.

But they did it.

Also, the Penguins this season weren't using a back-up goalie. They had a healthy defense. They replaced Nick Bonino with Derek Brassard.

In the intervening year since they last met, the Capitals had gotten worse and the Penguins arguably better.

And yet, here we are.

The Capitals have won. And much like last year, when the Capitals were prevented from advancing when Ovechkin's game-winning goal bounced harmlessly off the skinny part of Marc Andre Fleury's stick, the Penguins were robbed when what should have been the game winning goal hit the post behind Holtby.

But it matters not.

Hockey is a game of coin flips. The best team often goes home angry and funny things happen. An expansion team that really has no business in the playoffs is going to the Semi-Finals because their goalie is playing like an all-time great.

The Capitals - who have been contenders almost since the day Ovechkin was drafted back in 2004 - have one of the worst teams they've had during that entire time, and yet, improbably, they are going further than any of the other stacked versions of this roster.

But no one really cares. Wins are all that matters.

Capitals vs Lightning - with the Lighting as the favorite - should be a short series. On paper, the Bolts should crush the Caps. But based on how this season is going: bet on the Caps.

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