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The Toronto Maple Leafs continue their difficult Western road swing against the Calgary Flames on Thursday. A stretch so challenging that a club that has won four straight games may be the least difficult matchup, since they started with Edmonton (now winners of 11 straight) and face the first-place Vancouver Canucks and red-hot Seattle Kraken back-to-back this weekend.
The Leafs have lost four straight games in which they were leading, have averaged 2.5 goals per game during their losing skid, have gone 5-7-2 since December 19, and with Detroit’s 3-2 overtime victory in Florida on Wednesday, Toronto has slipped into the first wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference.
Head coach Sheldon Keefe has opted to keep the same line combinations that he used in the 4-2 loss to the Oilers on Tuesday, with Mitch Marner on the top line with Auston Matthews and Pontus Holmberg. William Nylander on the second line with John Tavares and Matthew Knies, Tyler Bertuzzi with Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok, and the fourth line of Bobby McMann, David Kampf, and Noah Gregor. Martin Jones will make his ninth start in 10 games against the Flames, while Daniel Vladar will be between the pipes for Calgary.
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After the signing of William Nylander this week, it has become obvious that the Leafs will have to cut corners in other areas of the club with five players taking up more than $54 million in cap space.
That could take the form of signing multiple bargain free agents or veterans like Mark Giordano willing to take less to play in Toronto or to promote a number of younger players on entry-level deals to balance things out.
Looking up front, the challenge for GM Brad Treliving is that with the signing of Nylander, the extension and raise of Auston Matthews, and the overlapping final year of both John Tavares and Mitch Marner, the Leafs will have $45.65 million allocated to their core four forwards; likely more than 50% of the salary cap even with the cap going up to around $88 million next season.
For those advocating buying out the final year of Tavares, his heavy signing bonus makes that a non-starter, since the Leafs would only save $600,000 with a buyout. The advocates of trading Marner….he has a no-movement clause. If on July 1, Toronto balks at the asking price of a Marner extension, and says that they would prefer to move him somewhere….he could simply choose to ride out the final year of his deal and test free agency with a cap likely going over $90 million.
Put that to the side for a moment (which is difficult, since that dilemma affects everything Treliving can do in the off-season), Toronto has three unrestricted free agents coming off the books in Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and Bobby McMann. Bertuzzi and Domi have failed in the first half to make a significant impact (with a cumulative 10 goals thus far), and the Leafs will desperately need to allocate their $8.5 million in cap space towards the blueline.
McMann has been a pretty good fourth-line winger with some jam, who could likely be brought back on a multi-year deal for less than $1 million per season.
David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok have multiple years remaining on their current deals, while both Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg have one year left on theirs.
The formula Treliving will have to follow next season will be a combination of the Spezza/Thornton model from 2020-21, signing veterans willing to take less to play close to home in Toronto, finding bargain free agents (like the club did with Michael Bunting in 2021) or promoting youngsters on low-salary or entry-level deals, such as Alex Steeves, Nick Abruzzese, Ryan Tverberg, Fraser Minten, or Easton Cowan.
Possible targets could also be players bought out of current deals willing to take a short-term deal for less or those who did not receive qualifying offers at the end of June.
The Leafs budget is going to be tight and it is going to take some creativity and a keen eye for a bargain for them to navigate their way through.
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