Quick Hits: October 2, 2020
1) If you have not already done so, check out "Scout Week" on Jason Myrtetus' Flyers Daily podcast. Earlier this week, FD ran a two-part interview that Jason and I did with Flyers assistant general manager Brent Flahr. Today, Jason talks to Flyers' Sweden-based scout Joakim Grundberg. The final two interviews in the series will feature talks with U.S. based scout Nick Pryor and western Canada based scout Mark Greig. The Grundberg episode also includes Chris Stewart talking about his new post-playing career role as a Flyers development coach. To listen, click here Later today, Brian Smith and I will be recording a Draft Preview edition of the Prospect Pipeline podcast. Brian will be doing live coverage of the 2020 Draft on Flyers Broadcast Network; I will be checking in periodically during lengthy gaps between Flyers picks. There will also be a Draft wrapup edition with sound bites from draftees, Chuck Fletcher and Brent Flahr.
2) Charlie O'Connor's article on the Athletic about Flyers drafting tendencies is well worth reading. I'll add some thoughts of my own here.
The hiring of Grundberg in 2013-14 helped fill a hole in the Flyers' scouting of Sweden that was created when longtime Sweden-based scout Inge Hammarström left the organization in 2008. The Flyers' coverage of the Swedish leagues increased and improved dramatically.
Something similar is still needed in Finland. Multiple attempts have been made to address it, predating the current GM/ hockey ops regime. Sami Sandell is now the Flyers' guy in Finland.
Within the last year, COVID has slowed the scouting process (and hiring process) for many NHL organizations across a variety of department. Leaguewide, the pandemic wreaked havoic not on the latter one-third of the 2020 Draft scouting cycle but also in delaying and staggering the start of the 2021 cycle.
Matti Kautto, who has been with the Islanders since 2013, spent five years previously as the Flyers' Finnish-based scout. Former Flyers goalie Antero Niittymà¤ki did goaltender scouting across Europe and Finnish league general scouting for the organization from 2013-14 through 2015-16 before stepping aside when he was hired as the general manager for Finnish team TPS Turku (a post he held until early last season). Another retired goalie, Riksman, spent one season (2018-19) as the Flyers' Finland-based scout and is now the club president of Finnish minor league team Hermes.
It has not been by design, but the Flyers have not drafted a single player out of the Finnish leagues (juniors, SM-Liiga/Liiga, Mestis) since the selection of defenseman Joonas Lehtivuori in the fourth round (101st overall) of the 2006 Draft. There have been some first-round close calls where players of interest did not quite fall to Philadelphia's selection spot. Teuvo Terà¤và¤inen in 2012 and Rasmus Ristolainen in 2013 are two specific cases where there was Philadelphia interest if the player had still been on the board.
First-round drafting, however, is a bit of a different animal than mid-round and latter-round selections. In the first and second rounds, players usually have had live viewings both in their leagues and especially in major international tournaments not only by a team's regional scout(s) but also by multiple crossover scouts as well as the club's assistant general manager and often even a viewing or two the GM as well. Deeper in the draft is where the recommendation of regional scouts often weighs more prominently. One need only look at the distribution of clubs and leagues from where picks originate to see which leagues get more coverage.
Of course, the relative strength or weakness of draft-eligible players in a specific region or league in a given season or time period also factors into the distribution of where picks originate. A slew of Czech players in the 2000s have left their home league a year ahead of their Draft eligibility to play major junior hockey in Canada or go elsewhere in Europe (often to Swedish programs), so they statistically count as originating from whatever league they played in during their Draft year. That's not really the case with Finland, where the relatively small country produces a disproportionate share of future NHL talent.
Specific to Finnish regional scouting, it's been an area the Flyers have long been aware needs to bolstered, predating the current regime. The desired outcome is to accomplish something similar to what Grundberg has done in Sweden; identifying mid-range to late-round candidates whose stock rises with a few years of the Draft. No one bats 1.000 but the Flyers have done pretty well in Sweden.
It's not just a matter of hiring someone as your regional scout, the trick is to find the RIGHT person who can be a long-term fit and work seamlessly in conjunction with the rest of the scouting staff. From what I've heard over the years, there have been several candidates of interest in Finland but things didn't work out, or at least were unable to be retained for the long haul.
Reasons can vary: another opportunity arose, another organization hired the candidate, the potential hire was happy staying put in a non-scouting capacity such as assistant coaching, the candidate was a Finn living primarily elsewhere and not able to move or travel regularly back home, etc.
The bottom line, however, is that not drafting a single player from one of the Draft hotbeds in a 13-Draft span underscored a weaker link in a generally strong global scouting chain in the organization. Long-term, the ideal outcome would be to have an astute regional scout in Finland, preferably a young one with some pre-NHL scouting/recruiting experience and who can fill the role for many years. Sandell has that potential.
3) One more thought on Finnish scouting as pertains to the 2020 Draft. Generally, this year's crop of European prospects, including ones in Finland, is not considered to be exceptionally deep but there are still potential sleepers out there. On the top end of the Draft, I will be very interested to see where HIFK center Anton Lundell ends up going in the first round.
Lundell is a player who is often variously slotted anywhere from the top 10 to top 15 but there are some who predict he could drop a bit in the first round. No, I do not expect him to still be on the board when pick No. 23 comes up. There are some significant pans of his skating, worries about his handling of tight-checking opposition and the usual concerns associated with late-year birthday players being surpassed by someone presently less experienced.
Personally, I think he's going to become a pretty damn good NHL center down the line. He's already wearing an A for HIFK at age 19 (he'll turn 19 tomorrow), brings two-way game as well as offensive skill and has been playing against pros and the international Under-20 level well ahead of his Draft-eligible year. His skating will improve and he'll be fine. With the Devils holding the 7th, 18th and 20th picks, I would think New Jersey would be a prime candidate to select Lundell if he drops below the top 15.
4) Upcoming on the Flyers website: a Flyers Draft inventory from 2015 through last year's Draft. I listed all picks and undrafted free agent signings (Phil Myers in 2015 and Egor Zamula in 2018) from each Draft year. What became of each pick? What is their present outlook and future potential? Which picks are no longer in the organization? We go player by player.
5) My annual mock Draft will run on the Flyers' website on the morning of Oct. 6. I will write it over this weekend.
As many of you know, I am not a fan of mock Drafts, except as entertainment fodder. They are mere guessing games. They're difficult to do with enough background research put in beforehand to make an educated selection order guess based on each team's typical drafting preferences and needs. Some teams DO draft early weighing positional need as well as BPA, and others go strictly BPA with position entering in only if the BPA factor is slim between two candidates.
It's also tough to do mock Drafts objectively. You have to remove personal preferences and team rooting interests. When I do them, I tend to over-correct for bias and remove a player or two whom I'd love to see fall to the Flyers' range (and who may or may not be available in real life) before I make the Flyers' pick.
In the 2018 Draft, I took Joel Farabee off the board one spot ahead of Philadelphia so I could do a "where would I go next" exercise. In real life, I was thrilled when he on the board for the Flyers at 14th overall and they took him. In that mock Draft, with Farabee "gone", I went for defenseman K'Andre Miller. I'd still have loved if the Flyers had taken Miller at the 19th overall pick but had no problem then or now with Jay O'Brien being picked. We'll see if O'Brien gets back on track after his year in the BCHL in 2019-20. Even if he doesn't, I do not have a problem with any team stepping up on a player they feel strongly about. Sometimes the risk doesn't pan out, sometimes it does.
Last year, I removed both Cole Caulfield and Peyton Krebs ahead of the Flyers' pick (which was originally at No. 11) and selected Matthew Boldy for the Flyers. My 2nd option after Boldy would have been Alex Newhook and third was Cam York.
As it turned out in the real-life Draft, the Flyers traded down to No. 14 and took York. I had York as the No. 2 defenseman in the Draft and removed from him mock BPA-based board at No. 12, one spot after prentending that Philly picked Boldy. In the actual Draft, Caulfield went 15th overall to Montreal, Newhook was taken 16th by Colorado and Krebs went 17th to Vegas. Really, you couldn't go too wrong with any of these players. They're all fine prospects.
This year, as I'm working out BPA in my head, I'm seeing a lot of wingers and a couple of defensemen being in the 20 to 25 range. As I wrote above, I just can't see someone like Lundell dropping into the 20s even if he does drop a little bit. While I'd love play out a scenario where he'd be there for Philly without moving up from 23rd, I can't objectively do that.
Additionally, while I'd love for the Flyers to be able to get something who checks all the boxes among above-average size, skating, demonstrated hockey smarts, a mature two-way game and skill, that's a mighty tall order in the 23rd spot of an average-depth depth. You'll usually have sacrifice checking off at least one of those boxes unless an injury-related concern, level of pre-Draft competition or a character concern causes someone to drop on Draft day. Among those categories, lack of size is the first I'd overlook if the other elements mostly check out.