Welcome back to the next set of my answers to your Mike’s Mailbag questions:
GalacticStone asks: A lot of Lightning fan chatter involving the clearing of cap space mentions Foote being ready to step up to the NHL to replace one of the D-men the Bolts would inevitably lose. How realistic is this? How close to primetime is Foote? My sense is that he’s fairly close to being able to step in and play some kind of role for the team. The nice thing for him is that, with Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev already back there, any ice time for him would be fairly insulated. It’s worth bringing him up to see what they’ve got.
The bigger concern, from my perspective, is the lack of NHL-ready prospects behind Foote in the system. There’s really not a lot to be excited about right now. If the team is going to add sweeteners, in the form of picks, to clear cap space, the future is going to look fairly bleak. They’d best win the Cup again in 2021 to make it all worthwhile.
Jvar17 asks: If the Lightning were forced to lose one of Cirelli or Sergachev as a cap casualty, which player would it hurt to lose more? Both have improved a lot over the last couple years and have the potential to be stars in the league.
This is similar to a question from the last set, and my answer remains the same: Losing Sergachev hurts more. The Lightning can protect against a Cirelli loss with minutes from Stamkos, Point, and Johnson up the middle. Replacing Sergachev is a lot more difficult, especially as McDonagh gets older.
Stammerman asks: Do you see all three RFAs Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak re-signing with Tampa? If so, what kind of deals do they sign? Of the three, which do you think is most likely to be the odd man out if one has to go?
Yes, I think they find a way to get something done with all three. That they are all unsigned still tells me they didn’t have any appetite to sign an offer sheet, so it really just seems that this is a matter of the team clearing cap space. That’s an expensive thing for them to do, but not impossible.
The question of who is most likely to be the odd man out if one has to go is interesting. On the one hand, it’s easy to point to Cernak as the lowest-profile of the three and pick him. On the other, someone like Cirelli would bring back a lot more futures in a trade. To me, Sergachev is the safest.
Sean asks: Is the lack of movement for the Lightning a result of all the circumstances resulting in the flat cap or the fact that teams perceive the trade scenarios as doing the Lightning a favour (even though there have been other contracts given throughout the league that are on par or have questionable possible returns just like the contracts JBB is trying to move)?
My hunch is that it’s a combination of both, with heavier weighting to the latter. Alex Killorn is a very competent hockey player on a very reasonable contract. The team being seemingly unable to move him to date suggests that it’s more than the COVID cap at play.
RP: Can Killorn be traded with positive value coming back?
I don’t see it, at this point. Teams know the Lightning are in trouble.
Todd asks: If the Lightning do trade Alex Killorn, what do you expect them to get back in return? What possible teams are a fit?
A mid-round pick seems like the best-case scenario right now. It’s clear that they aren’t going to get traditional market value for him. To me, teams like Montreal, Vancouver, and the New York Islanders seem like they would have been good fits if the cap landscape looked a little bit different.
Todd asks: Do you think our only option is to trade Tyler Johnson to the Red Wings and give them a 2021 1st round pick for a 2021 7th round pick?
Sadly, yes.
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Back with more in a few days! As always, thanks for reading.