Yesterday, I highlighted how the Penguins are in very good shape heading into 209-20 with their goaltending situation. Both Matt Murray and Casey DeSmith were up to the task and provided more than enough for the Penguins to be successful.
If we skip ahead to next year things start to get dicey. Matt Murray will be eligible for a new contract. He will be an RFA which will to some extent keep his cost "down". If you have been paying attention this offseason you'll see that RFA players who are key contributors to their teams are more bold and are holding out for more money. If Murray has another solid campaign the end result will likely be a contract in the 6.5-8M range. It will be a significant investment and will send ripples throughout how the roster is constructed.
I've never been a fan of paying a premium for goaltending. Murray's next contract will be a premium price. Jim Rutherford does not fall into that same mindset. He is very loyal and very willing to pay his goaltenders even when they don't have a ton of leverage. Cam Ward's six-year 38M contract was signed by Rutherford. It was worth 11.8% of the cap at the time. The three years prior to signing Ward was a .922 goalie at 5v5 which is average. His high-danger save percentage was only.786. Ward continued to put up average 5v5 numbers for a few years and the Hurricanes paid a premium for average and then below average.
Marc-Andre Fleury was coming off his contract after a plethora of playoff failures and no leverage. Jim Rutherford had no issue giving him not only money and term, but a no movement clause which eventually saw the need for the Penguins to give Vegas a second round pick to take Fleury in the expansion draft. Fleury's deal with Rutherford was 8.8% of the cap.
The point is if Rutherford likes his goalie he's going to buck up and keep that goalie. Rutherford himself is a goalie and that is probably playing a minor role here. If Murray were to make ~7M on a new deal with an 81.5M salary cap ceiling it would account for 8.58% of the cap. Right in the wheelhouse of past contracts given to his goaltenders.
If Matt Murray is the good version of what we've seen since 2015-16 a 7M cap hit isn't an ideal contract for me, but it is livable. The issue is he is not the only one up for a contract next year. Alex Galchenyuk and Justin Schultz are the notable UFA players. Murray headlines the RFA's which also includes: Jared McCann, Dominik Kahun, an Dominik Simon. It isn't a crazy list of high end talent, but we do have ourselves a double edged sword situation. If these players don't play well the Penguins are going to be at risk of missing the playoffs in 2019-20. If they do play well then their next contracts are going to make things more difficult to find money for everyone. This is especially true with the Alex Galchenyuk situation. It is my least favorite part of the Phil Kessel trade. Not Galchenyuk the player, but Galchenyuk the contract. If he is significantly worse than Phil Kessel it hurts the team. If he's good then you just gave away Phil Kessel for what will amount to a rental, but probably a rental not putting up a point per game like Kessel did. Galchenyuk at 4.9M is fine in a bubble. If he plays well it is going to eclipse 6M and that isn't where the Penguins want to be with that. They'll likely watch him test the market.
Justin Schultz is a deployment dependant player who is going to look for a raise regardless of how he plays this year. They are in a bad spot moving forward at the right defense position unless Calen Addison explodes onto the scene. They will either overpay Schultz which isn't a great idea, they will give Gudbranson minutes he can't handle, or they will have to find a right handed defenseman which isn't always the easiest task.
McCann, Kahun, and Simon won't have huge leverage, but 3M here and 2M there all adds up. Remember, the Penguins already blew through their disposable income with contracts like Johnson, Tanev, Gudbranson, and perhaps Bjugstad/Hornqvist. When you add a hefty Murray extension the walls start to close in.
If the Penguins are going to pay Matt Murray (the likely scenario) they are going to have to shuffle the deck in other areas. it will be up to management to carefully select where the money is coming from and where they will need to shed the space to make things happen. The window isn't getting any bigger.
Thanks for reading!