This season I’ve famously (infamously?) taken a public and loud stand against the traditional hockey punditry by making a case against the overuse of Kris Russell. It’s made me lots of friends with Twitter Eggs and my position has been ridiculed by some of the most established voices in Oiler media. Huzzah!
To the surprise of most, I don’t hate Kris Russell. I’m sure he’s nice. I wouldn’t know. We don’t speak. I also don’t think he’s without talent. He’s definitely a good skater and a willing shot blocker. Have I ever attacked his character on or off the ice? Nope. Everything there passes the sniff test (not that I really care).
My only concern with Kris Russell is what happens when he’s on the ice. And what happens when the Oilers’ number 4 steps on the ice is that the team sees a massive drop-off in its ability to move the puck up to the attacking zone and conversely the opposition sees a much easier time moving the puck into the Oiler end. That’s my biggest problem with Russell. That’s it. No personal vendetta. I just like it when the team performs better.
Now, of the 7 regular Oiler defensemen, Kris Russell is the only one with the negative ratio of shot attempts. The only one. In fact, 2nd worst is still positive. Here’s that list:
Benning 54.9% Gryba 53.5% Nurse 53.2% Klefbom 51.5% Sekera 50.6% Larsson 50.2% Russell 46.7%
So you can see that Russell stands out in a very negative way. 50% by way of shot attempts is keeping it even. Play is moving back and forth. Above 50% means the play is tipped in your favor. Below 50% means it’s tipped against you. Every single Oiler defender is above 50% except for Russell. He sticks out like a sore thumb. So what’s going on there?
Well, once it was identified that there was an issue with the Oilers when Russell was on the ice it didn’t take long to clue in on what the major problem was by watching him play the game. The problem with Russell is that he plays an ultra-conservative game. This might be related to the fact that the Oilers are playing him on the right side as a left handed defender. Perhaps an already conservative player is pushed even more deeply into his shell by being in an uncomfortable position. It’s just a guess about his mindset, but we don’t need to guess about what we can see and track in his game.
Russell’s choices as a defender prevent him from “looking… bad while simultaneously causing bad results. By playing a conservative game he rarely gets beat, puts himself in a position to put his body in the line of fire often (admirably to most observers), and release the pressure of the attack by making “safe plays… frequently.
It all starts in the neutral zone. When the opposition attacks, they often target the right side of the ice, which Russell occupies. Because of some awesome defensive tracking work done by TheOilersRig’s WheatNOil we can objectively state that the rate at which he denies entry at the Oiler blueline is substandard. More often than not, Kris Russell backs up to such a degree that the gap between he and the attacking player is massive. This gives free and easy entry into the Oiler zone.
This behavior is a choice made by Russell, which is why it is also correctable. Russell doesn’t give people the blueline because he’s awful. He has more than enough skating ability to keep from being beat. He’s small but he isn’t afraid to use his body. He doesn’t have to allow clean zone entries all the time. However, if we look at the tracked stats for the game on Saturday, we can see that Russell was targeted by the Flames 18 times and the Flames were denied entry to the zone exactly ZERO times. 100% of the time the Flames entered the zone and 72.2% of the time it was with control.
This is bad. That example is for a single game and it was probably the most egregious example, but on the whole what we see is that Russell allows entry more than the other defenders. This leads to more shot attempts and more time in the defensive zone. Time wasted in the defensive zone is time in a 45 second shift that isn’t spent moving the puck up the ice and generating scoring chances.
Now, the attacking team is in the Oiler end with control more frequently which leads to many shot attempts. Russell blocks a great number of shots in part because he’s willing and in part because he has so many opportunities. He leads the NHL in blocked shots which, once again, is not a great stat because it either means you’re playing so much that you are blocking lots due to your massive ice time or you are blocking a lot because you never leave your zone. For example, Russell has 123 blocked shots this year in 910:39 and Erik Karlsson has 120 blocked shots in 1215:16. So it’s taken Karlsson 300 extra minutes just to get within 3 blocked shots of Russell. That shouldn’t be a feather in anyone’s cap.
Now, once Russell allows entry and the shot attempts are coming in fast and furious, the play tends to devolve. Luckily, Russell is a good enough skater to make his way to the puck and when he does he makes another conservative move to ring the puck around the boards or to simply clear the puck down the ice. This pressure release, however, is only temporary. Throwing the puck around the boards or down the ice rarely results in Oiler possession and more often than not it ends up coming back in. Start another sequence of shot blocking. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
So how does this impact goal scoring? Well the only thing that matters in a hockey game is scoring more than the other team. That’s it. At the end of the day you win by scoring more than the other team. Here are the 5v5 Goals For per 60 minutes with and without Kris Russell for Edmonton’s 4 centermen. The centermen will act as a proxy for Edmonton’s 4 lines. In brackets are the minutes played together and apart.
McDavid With Russell 2.25 GF/60 (266:36) McDavid Without Russell 3.47 GF/60 (518.28) RNH With Russell 0.59 GF/60 (2014:20) RNH Without Russell 2.24 GF/60 (429:05) Caggiula With Russell 0.00 GF/60 (107:31) Caggiula Without Russell 2.12 GF/60 (226:09) Letestu With Russell 3.13 GF/60 (134:22) Letestu Without Russell 2.08 GF/60 (288:13)
These are pretty alarming numbers and we aren’t getting into any fancy stats. It’s pretty basic goal scoring stuff. What we see when Russell plays with Edmonton’s top 3 lines is pretty drastic. All three see massive reductions in their ability to generate offense as soon as Russell steps on the ice. The only one who has had any success has been the 4th line. If an opposing team could figure out how to limit McDavid’s line to just 2.25 Goals For per 60 minutes, they would be lauded as defensive geniuses. If we look at the shot attempt numbers then we can see that all lines see a lower shot attempt share with Russell on the ice.
McDavid With Russell 47.0% CF McDavid Without Russell 56.2% CF RNH With Russell 48.9% CF RNH Without Russell 50.9% CF Caggiula With Russell 50.3% CF Caggiula Without Russell 50.9% CF Letestu With Russell 44.1% CF Letestu Without Russell 47.3% CF
This matters because goals follow attempts. In terms of long term prognostications, it’s hard to see Letestu’s early success with Russell (based on 135 minutes of shared ice) holding up considering the other numbers. I fully expect that combination to fall back to earth. So we come back to my issue with Kris Russell.
The numbers and the eyes don’t always have to work apart. Despite what the multitude of people who have screamed “WATCH THE GAMES… to me think, I have been watching a lot. I have been watching intently. If it weren’t for these numbers I wouldn’t have known to look. Kris Russell is a NHL veteran, a good skater, a willing shot blocker, a bull rider from Caroline Alberta, and an absolute anchor on the attack of the Edmonton Oilers. We know why that is. We know exactly what he’s doing that causes the problems. We know because we watch the games and can see it plain as day.
The Oilers will benefit greatly by finding a replacement RHD who can push Russell back down to the 3rd pair and his natural side. Just as importantly, they can benefit by getting this well skating defender to not surrender his blueline faster than a French General. He has the ability to be more effective but the Oilers have to find a way to put him in the right situation.
It’s not personal. It’s just true.
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