Jets take 2-1 series in game for the ages
Were you not entertained? For many of the 15,500 in Bell MTS Centre last night after the first 20 minutes they certainly were not. Yours truly even said ‘stick a fork in them’ on Twitter last night while debating giving any more money for beer based on that effort.
Then the second period happened and that’s where the Jets overcame some server malaise.
Before revisiting that glorious three minutes, the first period cannot be washed away. Teams, and the players on them, have to learn from their mistakes and many were made in the first. From bad turnovers, penalties, and poor passes the Jets as whole racked up a litany of mistakes and found themselves in a three goal deficit after one period.
Passing.
This team is built on speed and transition and has been that way for some time but last night the passes were off, or even non-existent when they needed to be. There was poor decision making and that led to some bad passes and then some turnovers- it was much like some of the malaise that head coach Paul Maurice had been mentioning the previous week.
Turnovers.
The Jets were baking in the first period and their turnovers were the result of the bad passes. Passes that were soft, off-target, and sometimes ill-timed. It was just one element that was part of the equation to a three goal deficit at the end of the first period.
Penalties.
Three in the first and one that proved to be costly as a goal was scored on the ensuing penalty. While I have not seen a good replay on Trouba’s delay of game penalty many around us insisted they could hear it hit the glass before going out. Wheeler’s penalty was soft but the point remains the same, with calls like tripping or hooking don’t give the referees a reason to see a penalty.
The result in all of this ‘malaise
What happened between periods one and two in the Jets dressing room will remain a mystery and those who know should never reveal what voodoo happened. Whoever spoke, whoever said the words that gave rise to what happened next has a career that could rival Tony Robbins.
This graph from Natural Stattrick best shows just what happened- LIFT OFF
To follow it up with more information take a look at the shot heat map.
Not only did the Jets take over the game they made sure that Nashville wasn’t getting anything going and aside from the odd a flurry and the Arvidsson break away it was pretty piecemeal. Yes Forserg tied the game up with a wicked seeing-eye wrist shot but it did not change what the Jets were doing- simply dominating the Predators in all ways.
The cherry on top for the fans inside the building was the penalty for high-sticking taken by PK Subban that resulted in the Blake Wheeler goal, the enventua game-winner. It was a penalty and it was certainly deserved but the crowd did not care- they were hungry to extract their pound of flesh from the Norris candidate.
A few words on PK though. The crowd boos him, just like they do Phaneuf, or Dumba, or Matthews, or Doughty, or Kesler, or the Kanes. Unlike with perhaps Evander, there’s nothing meant by it- it’s just targeting the elite best player on the opposition. What’s funny is you can see Subban thriving on it. He’s hardly a villain as a person let alone on the ice, but in this series he’s brought his gamesmanship to a new level. He waits on the ice to keep Scheifele out there longer during warm up, he’s drawing attention and dishing out hits and goals.
Frankly he’s done a marvelous job of being PENO, publish enemy number one, for Jets fans and last night was the pinnacle. There’s 30 GMS in this league who take Subban in a heart beat if offered (29 actually Bergeron had him) and that’s a testament to who he is as a player he’s that good but last night after the game something came out of him that was unexpected.
In his post game scrum he commented about how certain things were being let go, extra shoves, punches and physical activity after the whistles. He was frustrated certainly but that was unlike him, it was something I’ve always felt he rises above. Whether he is stinging from the late penalty or not, he rarely if ever ventures into that kind of commentary and something got to him. I’d be curious to know what more specifically.
Finally, Jets fans just stop booing him. It’s not working in fact it adds fuel to the fire within him and many other players. It’s time to move on to something else.
Now with three games between the two teams in the series there’s some data we can look at from a trend point. Below, again thanks to Natural Stattrick is a great graph showing 5vs5 Score and Venue adjusted shot attempts, Corsi. That’s the dark line the thin one is the regular 5vs5 no adjustment. Can you see what’s happening?
Behind the numbers
The Predators for three games have outplayed the Jets based on possession and shot attempts and they have one win to show for it. Now look at how the trend line is going- it’s starting to look a lot more like Winnipeg is catching up.
If you look at other data points you will see that the Preds are stronger in scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage, all at 5vs5. If you change the criteria to all situations the Preds still best the Jets in most categories. But something curious stands out- PDO. Winnipeg has 1048 and Nashville has a 952 and that’s a big spread so where is it happening?
Well the two teams have played a fair bit of time at even strength so 5 vs 5 or 4 vs 4. It’s a difference of 10 minutes in total time over three games but what has happened in those 10 mins is that Nashville has allowed 7 goals in that 10 minutes of ice time while the Jets have allowed just 1. That’s an incredible amount of goals in that time span even if spread over three games. It’s what might have the series in the Jets favor now.
What anyone who was in the building last night will tell you though is they don’t care how it happened though, they were there to witness it. The ‘it’ was something you don’t see often in a regular season let alone in a playoff game between the two best teams in the league with the stakes this high. It was as electric as I’ve ever seen the MTS Centre including the first playoff game vs the Ducks. It was louder, crazier and more passionate than the 2.0 home opener vs Montreal. It was something people will tell their kids about, especially if the Jets manage to go on and win the series but there’s far more work to be done before that can happen.
Last night’s game has many stories and before tomorrow’s even more important game a quick review will take place but let me ask this question: You have to vote for an early Conn Smythe candidate do you choose Buff or Scheifele?