10 years ago the Vancouver Canucks had been a year in the making with their new goalie Roberto Luongo. That 2006-07 year saw the goalie almost catapult the Canucks to legitimacy all on his now while nearly winning a Vezina and getting his then coach Alain Vigneault a Jack Adams award. Unfortunately the stats do not go back to that year, Luongo's first, but the year after we can see something that perhaps resembles the Winnipeg Jets in 2017.
This idea wasn't something that came to me as a shot in the blue it was through a conversation with Tony MBHKY Basically as he suggested in our banter- Pomo is totally okay with giving up this many shots at Hellebuyck. Thinking on that strategic though I wondered if there was another case and I thought of the Canucks from 10-11 years ago with Luongo.
Here's a comparison (all stats 5 vs 5)
2017 Winnipeg Jets to date
CF%- 45.02 31st FF%- 45.06 30th SF%- 46.05 29th GF%- 50.98 13th
CF/60- 45.05 31st CA/60- 59.81 23rd GF/60- 2.57 14th GA/60- 2.47 18th
2007 Vancouver Canucks to Nov 6 2007
CF%- 46.38 27th FF%- 46.33 26th SF%- 45.55 28th GF%- 45.00 22nd
CF/60- 45.91 27th CA/60- 53.08 20th GF/60- 1.95 22nd GA/60- 2.39 14th
There's a similarity here in that both teams struggle(ed) in the same areas and had some improvement in the same areas. The Canucks at that point were not as gifted an offensive team yet and that would come under Mike Gillis who was hired in the spring of 2008.
The point here as Tony suggested is that Maurice might be happy to let Hellebuyck have a ton of rubber fired at him as long as it's not from dangerous areas.
The Jets currently have the 6th best Hight Danger Corsi Against (HDCA) percentage in the league. They also have the 9th best HDGA in the league too, all this after 13 goals in two games to start the season. Essentially they have tightened things up around the net are content to let Hellebuyck see shots and stop them from afar the danger areas. The Jets also have the 12th best HDSV% in the league so even when they are allowing chances the Jets are stopping them better than most.
Whether this is by design or not is not known but it certainly is a reality and it may very well be that Maurice is ready to allow the goalies to see rubber at high rates as long as it comes from the right areas.
When Luongo arrived in Vancouver it took awhile for the players to understand how he wanted to see shots. They had to adjust to what he needed and preferred- the first games in 2007 were not always pretty for them and Luongo but it got better. The Jets know Hellebuyck, and they know he has been working on his game away from the team this past summer. It would not be too much of a stretch to believe some level of discussion around tactics with goalie and coach, and then with skaters, has taken place to give Hellebuyck preferred shots.
The Jets track many things in their analytics process and one thing that GM Kevin Cheveldayoff let slip last fall was that Hellebuyck has a much greater success rate on non-screened shots that the other goalie then, Pavelec and Hutchinson. With renewed training and enhanced technique the Jets could be banking on playing to strengths to reduce weaknesses as part of their strategy.
However, this does not explain the concerning offensive event rate they have. Again though compare to the Canucks and how they built that team from the net out and look at the offensive punch the Jets have- this could simply be a matter of team before Maurice changes tactics to allow for more offensive events. Fans can always dream right?
As for tonight the Jets visit the Stars and are looking to correct the problems from the Montreal debacle. If you didn't hear Jaime Benn already casually issued a challenge to Byfuglien when the two saw each other at the rink this morning.
Adam Lowry will return to action tonight and slide in with Tanev and Copp as his wingers. That pushes Matthias down to the 4th line where he will skate with Hendricks and Armia. This means the loss of pest Brendan Lemieux to the press box with Dano and Chiarot.
The Stars are sporting an 8-6-0 record in 14 games while the Jets come in at 7-3-3 in 13 games for the second divisional meeting between the two teams. Winnipeg had a rather lacklustre effort on Saturday night in Montreal getting a 4-2 lead and then failing to hang onto it and falling 5-4 in OT.
It was a lead they should never have had but found a way to acquire and that is likely why they could not hold it. The play was not to the level required to win hockey games let alone hold leads. Paul Maurice knew that and knows it heading into tonight and it's his job to have the team come out skating at the right pace and level to compete and best the opposition.
Maurice has stressed that he needs the team to perform, react, and execute faster and this will be Lowry's first time to see how he measures up with his team mates in that capacity. Lowry has never been known as fleet of foot and giving him third line minutes to start could be an interesting move if he's not ready yet.
Connor Hellebuyck get the start as he should. Watch the game and see where the chances come from and if this theory/idea holds up for allowing Hellebuyck to see more from less dangerous areas. Furthermore watch to see if the Jets can transition better to increase their chances as well.
The Stars come in with the best PP unit in the league still although they are better on the road and are only 10th at home. The Jets come in with the 5th best road PK unit. The Stars have the 2nd best home PK unit while the Jets have the 28th road PP. Like most nights it's probably best for the Jets to stay away from special teams and this one is no different.