The Barbarians are at the gate. The Flames and the Ducks have 76 points in the standings and the Oilers are holding them back with their 78. The loser of this race will have to face the Sharks in the Playoffs and the other two will face each other. This is it. Barring major disaster, these are the four teams that will square off against each other to win the Pacific Division. And the Flames are surging.
Just a couple days ago the New York Islanders took on the Flames and were thoroughly beaten. It was 4-0 in the 1st period and the Flames were looking to make an example of Doug Weight’s club. Now they’ve had a chance to recoup and will want to bounce back against the Oil. As firmly as I believe Edmonton will make the playoffs, the next month is going to determine their odds at making it out of the 1st round. Matching with San Jose is a completely different story than meeting Anaheim or Calgary. And, with the way Calgary is playing right now, I’m not sure anyone wants to play them.
One of the things we’ve identified that the Oilers will need this Spring is a strong 2nd line, and we are finally seeing signs of life from that trio of Lucic, RNH, and Eberle. McLellan specifically spoke to the improved play of Jordan Eberle. For the coach, it comes down to confidence. Eberle is playing like a player who knows he can score. That back-hand goal against Mrazek was classic Jordan Eberle. If he doesn’t feel like himself after that, I don’t know what would help.
Eberle has 7 points in his last 8 games. Lucic has 5 points in his last 8 games. Nugent-Hopkins has 6 points in his last 8. Nuge didn’t pick up a single point against the Wings, but he had 4 shots on net and looked incredible dangerous. As a trio, this line started the season horrendously. They could not get a single thing going for them. It was a disaster. They weren’t formally put together as a line until the game against the Capitals, but the results have been promising.
If we look at the last month, from February 7th until today, then those three have played 73:12 together 5v5 for the Oilers and they are getting the job done. The reports of them finding chemistry together, are supported by the fancy stats as well. As in, your eyes are not deceiving you. They have a 60% Goals For percentage and a 53.6% Corsi For percentage. They are carrying the play and scoring more goals than the opposition. It’s a damned good time for them to show up, and the last 4 games in particular have been really exciting. They are trending up.
The Oilers are dedicating 18 million dollars of their Cap to that 2nd line. If they aren’t producing offensively then Peter Chiarelli will have re-examine how he allocates those dollars. Especially since Draisaitl needs to get paid right away. If, however, those 3 are doing their part to make the Oilers a dangerous club that opposition teams cant negate by taking away McDavid (ha, try it) then that’s a completely different story.
In the three years prior to this one, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was scoring at a rate of 1.62 points per 60 minutes 5v5 and 4.47 points per 60 minutes on the 5v4 power play. That’s OK 5v5 scoring and solid PP scoring. For example, on the PP those numbers match Joe Thornton’s output on a per 60 basis over the same span. Eberle had 1.91 points per 60 minutes 5v5 and 4.92 points per 60 minutes on the 5v4 power play. That’s a match for Marleau’s PP numbers and Nate MacKinnon’s 5v5 numbers.
This season, Nugent-Hopkins is down to 1.34 P/60 5v5 and a 3.51 P/60 5v4. Eberle has a 1.60 P/60 5v5 and 4.67 P/60 5v4. So neither player is hitting their historically expected numbers this season. You would say that it’s Nuge who has it worse between the two longtime Oilers. This doesn’t even take into consideration the decimation that has occurred to Lucic’s 5v5 production.
So, if these players are getting back to their established level of play, the boost to this team’s 5v5 offense is going to be felt immediately. That could be the difference between holding back the Flames and the Ducks or not.
LINEUP
Maroon McDavid Draisaitl Lucic RNH Eberle Caggiula Desharnai Kassian Hendricks Letestu Khaira
Klefbom Larsson Sekera Benning Nurse Gryba
Talbot Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Grousing about Greiss. Thomas Greiss has started 38 games for the Islanders and has a 21-13-4 record on the season with a .916 save percentage. Those are OK numbers, not great numbers. He has played in 5 games against the Oilers in his career. In those games, Greiss is 3-0-2 with a .950 save percentage. He has historically played well against Edmonton (newsflash, most teams did). The good news for the Oilers is that Greiss’ save percentage in February and March has been atrocious. He has a brutal .891 and .883 in February and March respectively. Let’s hope that it’s THAT Greiss the Oilers see and not the guy who stops everything that’s been thrown at him.
2) The Nurse Is In. Every game back from injury we’ve seen a little more of Nurse’s game return to him. Chief among all of the tools he has at his disposal is his skating ability. He can transport the puck very well and we saw more of that against Detroit. In fact, both he and his partner, Gryba, finished with 4 shots on net in that game. Some offensive flair from a physical 3rd pairing is a welcome addition, as long as they don’t lose the plot. Nurse is still young and inexperienced. He is playing just his 100th game tonight. I don’t know what his ceiling is and injury has obfuscated that. What I can say is that he has more talent than he knows what to do with yet. If he can keep unlocking that talent then the sky is the limit. Not for nothing, but he is leading the Oiler blueline in Corsi this season and last year he was their worst.
3) How Much Was Adrenaline? David Desharnais didn’t look out of place at all on the Oiler 3rd line. Based on reviews of his play in Montreal, I was expecting a man on his last legs. Instead, he was carrying the puck, made some nice plays, and picked up an assist on the Kassian goal. That 3rd line looked good. So the question is, how much of that was adrenaline because he was playing on a new team? How much of that play is sustainable. Because if that is the way the 3rd line can play all the time, I am in. I am excited. If that goes away tonight and we only see it every 4th game then I’ll be less impressed.
Puck drops at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!
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